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TOL

Toledo 14 at San Diego State 17

SDSU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:35 · Jack Browning punt for 35 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense+0.1Pregame prior−8.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 7:54: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 11 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +17.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:47: Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43 — SDSU win probability +14.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:56: Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +47.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:51: Braxton Burmeister run for 18 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST down — SDSU win probability +17.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:41: Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +56.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:12SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:48TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:01SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:12TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:35SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51TOL 4th & 7 at SDSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:27SDSU 4th & 9 at TOL 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:56SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:54SDSU 4th & 17 at TOL 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:32TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:31TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:04SDSU 4th & 16 at TOL 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−2.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:01TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:12SDSU 4th & 10 at TOL 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:40TOL 4th & 14 at TOL 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:00SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:09SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 14:09SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 7:54TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:56TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:41SDSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4340% → 41%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mark Redman for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
40.3%
Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
40.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
40.7%
Jack Browning punt for 47 yds , Adam Beale returns for 15 yds to the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2459% → 59%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
40.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 1 yd to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-6
40.8%
Dequan Finn sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
41.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+3
41.6%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 42 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
41.4%
BYRD, Jordan rush to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the SDS39 (BAUER, Nate). PENALTY SDS Holding on ABDULLAH, Dean enforced 10 yards from the SDS28 to the SDS18 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:4741% → 42%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 20
OWN 18
-1
41.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mark Redman for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 21
OWN 17
+1
41.3%
Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 20
OWN 18
0
41.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 20
OWN 18
0
41.5%
Jack Browning punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4959% → 58%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
41.5%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+6
41.7%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-3
41.5%
Dequan Finn sacked by Garret Fountain for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
42.5%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 52 yds, downed at the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:3742% → 43%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
42.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+8
42.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 8 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
42.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+17
42.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for 17 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
42.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kenan Christon for no gain to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
42.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Cam Davis for 4 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
42.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
43.0%
Jack Browning punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:4457% → 56%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
43.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 13 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
42.6%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-1
42.4%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+13
43.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 13 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
42.3%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+10
42.3%
Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
42.0%
BOONE, Peny rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the SDS29 (SHAWCROFT, Michael). PENALTY TOL Holding on ATEMAN, Kelvin enforced 10 yards from the SDS32 to the SDS42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+15
42.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Targeting on WHITE, Kyron enforced (15 Yards) to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
41.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
42.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
42.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+36
43.7%
Thomas Cluckey 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4245% → 53%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+37
45.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 37 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
52.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 43 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8INT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:1149% → 48%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
50.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
49.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+10
49.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 10 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
49.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
49.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
49.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
48.3%
FINN, Dequan pass to the right incomplete intended for BLANKUMSEE, DeMeer broken up by JOHNSON, Chris at the SDS0. PENALTY TOL Holding on ROSI, Nick enforced 10 yards from the SDS34 to the SDS44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
49.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 20
OPP 44
0
52.0%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3155% → 54%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
54.5%
Kenan Christon run for 23 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
55.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
55.2%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
54.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
54.3%
Jack Browning punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FUMBLE
11 plays · 76 yds · 5:0246% → 46%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
54.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
54.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
53.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+5
54.1%
QB Keeper FINN, Dequan rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the TOL33 (LAKALAKA, Seyddrick), out of bounds. PENALTY SDS Offsides on MCDONALD, Caden enforced 5 yards from the TOL31 to the TOL36 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.4%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
53.8%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+28
53.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 28 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
51.0%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+7
50.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
50.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 4 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
53.8%
Peny Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 13 Peny Boone fumbled, recovered by SDSt Cooper McDonald , return for no gain to the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:2959% → 61%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
59.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-2
60.5%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 13Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+21
59.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mark Redman for 6 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Maxen Hook) to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
61.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-2
62.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Jesse Matthews for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 36Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
60.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+9
59.2%
Jack Browning punt for 56 yds , Adam Beale returns for 9 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
60.6%
FINN, Dequan pass to the left incomplete intended for NEWTON, Jerjuan thrown to the SDS48. PENALTY TOL Holding on SCIURY, Vinny enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the TOL17 to the TOL8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:5639% → 37%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+9
61.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+8
64.0%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
63.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13INT
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:1539% → 40%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
61.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
60.4%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
59.7%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:4766% → 63%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
65.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 12 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
65.8%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 15
OPP 45
-8
64.3%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Maxen Hook for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 23
OWN 47
+6
62.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
63.4%
Jack Browning punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2236% → 33%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
64.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+1
64.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
65.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
67.1%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5335% → 32%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
65.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 16Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
65.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
66.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
68.0%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 36 yds, downed at the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 4:2771% → 71%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
71.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 8
50
0
71.1%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 8
50
+10
69.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mark Redman for 10 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
71.5%
QB Keeper BURMEISTER, Braxton rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the TOL31 (JOHNSON, Dyontae), out of bounds. PENALTY SDS Holding on PENNY, Brionne enforced 10 yards from the TOL40 to the SDS50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 20
50
+2
70.1%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 18
OPP 48
-3
70.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kenan Christon for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 21
OWN 49
+5
68.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
70.7%
Jack Browning punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:0331% → 28%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
69.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 14 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.8%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
69.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
70.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
72.1%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 28 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4976% → 80%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
50
+1
76.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+16
76.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 16 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
76.7%
Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
76.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-4
80.9%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+50
80.2%
Jack Browning 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:2019% → 17%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
80.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
81.2%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
82.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+10
82.9%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 48 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 10 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4083% → 81%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
82.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
82.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
81.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
81.4%
Jack Browning punt for 40 yds, downed at the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 5:0619% → 41%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
80.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 7 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
79.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
79.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 20 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
77.5%
Micah Kelly run for 7 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+5
75.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 5 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
76.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
76.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 14 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
75.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+10
75.5%
Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
75.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 6Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
75.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Jackson Stoefen) to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
76.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
58.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 11 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3873% → 72%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
72.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
72.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
72.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
72.0%
Jack Browning punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 3:1333% → 87%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
66.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+9
67.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 9 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+15
67.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (CJ Baskerville) to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
62.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+10
60.3%
Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
58.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Jamal Turner) to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+36
62.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 36 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
59.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 14 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.4%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 2:1031% → 96%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
30.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 18 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
36.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 5 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+7
36.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
36.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 13 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
39.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
37.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 13 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
39.7%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-5
39.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Alama Uluave) to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-5
38.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson) to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+15
27.0%
Braxton Burmeister run for 15 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 4%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
88.1%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
95.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dezjhon Malone) to the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:41
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)
+56.4
TD · Q4 2:56
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-47.6
TD · Q4 7:54
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 11 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-17.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com