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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 25 at San Diego State 23

SDSU
2022 · EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl · Dec 24, 2022 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDFGFGFGEnd of GameFG+11.1SDSU 68.9%Jack Browning 52 yd FG GOODAWAY 22 - HOME 23 · Q4 5:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:43 · Jack Browning 52 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+17.0+8.50−8.5−17.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense+7.9Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:14: Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Ferguson for 8 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 1:26: Jack Browning 39 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:25: Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MTSU win probability +26.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:43: Jack Browning 52 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:05: Zeke Rankin 37 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +36.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11MTSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 13:38MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:07SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:39MTSU 4th & 22 at MTSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:20SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 32, tied
    Close callWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:39MTSU 4th & 17 at MTSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:02MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:40SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.1%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:52SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:49MTSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 27, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−4.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:59MTSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 37, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%−0.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%
    40% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:23SDSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 26, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:53MTSU 4th & 20 at MTSU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:14MTSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−1.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q2 2:12SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−2.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:41SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.4%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:22MTSU 4th & 16 at SDSU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 13:27SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 9:52MTSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−3.0
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−8.7
    average punt
  19. Q3 6:59MTSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 9, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−10.6
    average punt
  20. Q3 1:26SDSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 22, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−4.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−14.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 14:06MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−4.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 10:15SDSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 19, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−4.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−16.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 8:51MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 33, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  24. Q4 5:43SDSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.6
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−6.3
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:05MTSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−15.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−25.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:18SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:42SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:14MTSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:25MTSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    62.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0733% → 33%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
66.8%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
66.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
66.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 8 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
66.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 61 yds, downed at the SDSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5867% → 66%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
66.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 5 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+4
66.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
66.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jay RudolphSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
66.3%
Jack Browning punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:2134% → 33%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
66.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
66.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 2 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-14
66.2%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 14 yards to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 22
OWN 33
0
66.6%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:5766% → 69%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
66.4%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
66.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
66.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+27
65.9%
Garret Fountain run for 27 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
66.8%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+31
66.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 31 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
66.9%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 9 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:2632% → 31%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
68.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
68.3%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
68.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-10
68.4%
Cunningham, Chase pass complete to Bailey, Bryce for 5 yards to the MIDDLETENN45, PENALTY MIDDLETENN illegal block 10 yards to the MIDDLETENN30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 17
OWN 30
0
69.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
69.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:3869% → 73%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
68.9%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
68.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Brionne PennySimilar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+73
72.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 73 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3328% → 27%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
71.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Bryce BaileySimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
72.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Frank PeasantSimilar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
72.6%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 54 yds, downed at the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
14 plays · 19 yds · 6:0573% → 75%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
73.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-1
73.0%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+11
72.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 11 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
73.6%
Jesse Matthews run for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-2
73.9%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+10
73.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 10 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+4
74.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
75.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
75.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offside Defense (5 Yards) to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-5
75.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
75.6%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-5
75.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 36Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
75.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+22
74.9%
Jack Browning punt for 49 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 22 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:5126% → 29%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+30
74.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 30 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
72.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
72.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
73.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+44
71.5%
Zeke Rankin 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
73.2%
Jalen Mayden pass intercepted Decorian Patterson return for 2 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · -25 yds · 1:0630% → 26%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
69.9%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Keshawn Banks for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 20
OPP 38
-10
71.7%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Keshawn Banks for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 30
OPP 48
+11
72.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 11 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 19
OPP 37
-16
73.7%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Kyron White for a loss of 16 yards to the MTnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1776% → 75%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
75.6%
Mekhi Shaw run for no gain to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
75.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 13 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
76.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
76.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 8 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
75.2%
Jalen Mayden run for no gain to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+43
75.0%
Jack Browning 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:1226% → 23%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
74.2%
Darius Bracy run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
73.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+11
74.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 11 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
73.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
73.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-13
73.8%
Chase Cunningham run for a loss of 13 yards to the MTnSt 31 Chase Cunningham fumbled, recovered by MTnStSimilar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
77.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 69 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
75.6%
Jalen Mayden run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 17 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Christian DixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1927% → 33%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
73.2%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
73.3%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
74.4%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the SDSt 8Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+8
66.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Ferguson for 8 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:2868% → 68%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
68.4%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Jalen Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 13Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 15
OWN 13
-5
68.1%
Jalen Mayden run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 8Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 20
OWN 8
0
68.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 20
OWN 8
+12
68.0%
Jack Browning punt for 52 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 12 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:1133% → 33%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
67.4%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
67.5%
Chase Cunningham pass intercepted Dezjhon Malone return for no gain to the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5470% → 70%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
69.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Darius De Los Reyes for 9 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
71.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
70.5%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-15
69.5%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 41 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Byrd) to the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:1534% → 33%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
65.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-6
65.9%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Justus Tavai for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
70.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+49
66.9%
Zeke Rankin 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
67.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1367% → 65%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
66.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
65.0%
Jalen Mayden run for 6 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+14
65.2%
Jack Browning punt for 57 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 14 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:2835% → 34%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
65.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 22 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
62.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+13
62.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 13 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
62.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+20
62.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 5 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Caden McDonald) to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
60.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 4 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
60.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 5 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-13
61.5%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Michael Shawcroft for a loss of 13 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 14
OPP 20
-5
66.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 19
OPP 25
+42
66.4%
Zeke Rankin 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0866% → 66%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
65.5%
Jalen Mayden pass intercepted Teldrick Ross return for 12 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3340% → 46%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
60.1%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
59.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Frank PeasantSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+10
61.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 10 yds to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
59.8%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-2
59.6%
Chase Cunningham run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 12Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+3
61.6%
Darius Bracy run for 3 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
53.7%
Zeke Rankin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 5:1456% → 63%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
55.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
55.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 8 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
55.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+14
52.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 14 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
58.5%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+16
57.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 16 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
60.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Josh Nicholson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
60.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+15
58.2%
Mayden, Jalen pass incomplete to Matthews, Jesse, PENALTY MIDDLETENN roughing passer (Dunnigan, Quindarius) 15 yards to the MIDDLETENN17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST.Similar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
60.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for no gain to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
60.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
59.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Josh NicholsonSimilar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 15
OPP 22
0
54.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+39
63.4%
Jack Browning 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:1036% → 33%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.3%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
63.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 7 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
63.1%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
62.7%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-7
60.6%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Jonah Tavai and Davaughn Celestine for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+3
66.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 51 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
65.0%
Jalen Mayden pass intercepted Jordan Ferguson return for no gain to the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:1543% → 70%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
56.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 9 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+16
30.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 29FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:4541% → 55%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
40.7%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 22Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+21
39.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 21 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
43.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Josh NicholsonSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+38
41.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 38 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
47.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for no gain to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
47.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
46.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
54.5%
Jack Browning 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1855% → 54%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.2%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
45.5%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+10
46.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 10 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
46.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 31FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:0153% → 69%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
53.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Darius De Los Reyes for 9 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
57.0%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+31
52.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 31 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
58.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 7 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-2
61.3%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
57.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Darius De Los ReyesSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+52
68.9%
Jack Browning 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 32FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 3:2238% → 76%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.8%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
61.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for no gain to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
63.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 11 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
58.4%
Cunningham, Chase pass incomplete to Gathings, Izaiah, PENALTY SANDIEGOST pass interference (Celestine, Davaughn) 15 yards to the SANDIEGOST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN.Similar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
55.7%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+13
56.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 13 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
54.5%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Darius BracySimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
54.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 11 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
54.7%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
54.2%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-1
56.8%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
23.6%
Zeke Rankin 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 33Uncategorized
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4533% → 26%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
33.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 20 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
37.0%
Jalen Mayden run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-12
31.2%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Zaylin Wood for a loss of 12 yards to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 24
OWN 31
0
25.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 2:05
Zeke Rankin 37 yd FG GOOD
-36.9
TD · Q4 13:25
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-26.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-25.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com