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UNLV

UNLV 10 at San Diego State 14

SDSU
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:32 · Jack Browning 50 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense+6.0Pregame prior+7.4Garbage-time factor+1.6Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:55: Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 24 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:11: Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 70 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +12.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:40: Daniel Gutierrez 29 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +10.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:41: Jordan Byrd run for 11 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST down — SDSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:44: Timeout UNLV, clock 02:44 — SDSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:52UNLV 4th & 7 at SDSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:49SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 11, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:28UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:02SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:57UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:47UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:32SDSU 4th & 7 at UNLV 34, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.1%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:55UNLV 4th & 17 at UNLV 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:56SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:33SDSU 4th & 9 at UNLV 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:12UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:51SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:30SDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−4.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:15SDSU 4th & 7 at UNLV 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:41SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 21, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 3.3 ptsWent for it · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%−3.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:40UNLV 4th & 7 at SDSU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−2.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−13.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:32SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−6.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:41UNLV 4th & 5 at SDSU 46, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%−4.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 9:16SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:55SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:11UNLV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:0137% → 38%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
62.6%
Doug Brumfield run for 1 yd to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+14
62.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 14 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
62.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+1
62.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+7
62.6%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 7 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
62.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
62.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
62.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
62.3%
Marshall Nichols punt for 36 yds, downed at the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0362% → 62%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
62.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+6
62.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 6 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
62.2%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+4
61.7%
Jack Browning punt for 58 yds , Nohl Williams returns for 4 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2138% → 38%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.0%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
61.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-7
62.0%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Caden McDonald for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
62.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 39 yds, downed at the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:2662% → 62%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
62.2%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Adam Plant Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+24
62.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 24 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
63.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
63.0%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-10
62.8%
Jalen Mayden sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
61.5%
Jack Browning punt for 51 yds, downed at the UNLV 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0538% → 38%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
62.0%
Doug Brumfield run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
62.0%
Doug Brumfield run for 1 yd to the UNLV 2Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
62.4%
UNLV Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the UNLV 1Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+3
62.4%
Doug Brumfield run for 3 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+9
62.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 35 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 9 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:5664% → 64%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
63.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-10
63.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
63.8%
Jalen Mayden pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1439% → 38%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
61.1%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Dallas Branch for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+10
61.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 10 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
61.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
62.1%
Marshall Nichols punt for 43 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 5:3162% → 71%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
62.2%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+6
61.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 6 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
62.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 7 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
63.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Chance Bell for 7 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
63.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
63.6%
Kenan Christon run for 7 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+1
63.6%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
63.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
63.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
70.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 28 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:3732% → 31%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
68.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 3 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+13
67.8%
Aidan Robbins run for 13 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
67.3%
Courtney Reese run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-4
68.7%
Doug Brumfield run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 37 Doug Brumfield fumbled, recovered by SDSt Garret FountainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0372% → 71%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
71.7%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+7
71.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-5
71.2%
Jaylon Armstead run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+50
70.6%
Jack Browning 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3731% → 28%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
69.2%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
69.5%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
70.1%
Aidan Robbins run for no gain to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 15
OWN 29
-2
70.8%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Keshawn Banks and Jonah Tavai for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 17
OWN 27
-3
71.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 49 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5971% → 70%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
71.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
71.0%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
70.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
69.5%
Jack Browning punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:2530% → 32%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
69.8%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 7 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+3
68.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
69.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 3 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
68.4%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
67.6%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 18 yds Ricky White fumbled, recovered by SDSt Dallas BranchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:5872% → 72%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
71.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 12 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
72.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
50
0
73.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
50
+5
73.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 5 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-4
74.2%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Eliel Ehimare for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
72.1%
Jack Browning punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2127% → 27%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
73.0%
Aidan Robbins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 5Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+5
72.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 5 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+1
72.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 11Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
73.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0474% → 75%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
73.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 19 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
74.7%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Adam Plant Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:0172% → 86%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
72.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 23Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+24
72.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 24 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
74.2%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+8
74.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 8 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
74.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 9 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-5
74.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Josh Simmons) to the UNLV 37Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+13
74.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 13 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
85.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 24 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18INT
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2416% → 18%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
83.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
83.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
82.8%
Doug Brumfield run for 8 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
82.8%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 2 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
82.5%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 6 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+15
82.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 15 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
81.7%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+20
81.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 20 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
81.8%
Doug Brumfield pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3388% → 87%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.7%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
87.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-3
87.1%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Austin Ajiake for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 19Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
87.1%
Jack Browning punt for 61 yds , Nohl Williams returns for no gain to the UNLV 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4014% → 27%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
85.8%
Doug Brumfield run for 10 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
73.4%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 70 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21MISSED FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:5178% → 79%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
78.2%
MAYDEN, Jalen pass to the left incomplete intended for SHAVERS, Tyrell thrown to the NLV46. PENALTY NLV Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Nohl enforced 15 yards to the SDS50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
50
+5
80.2%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
80.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
79.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 4 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+7
77.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
80.6%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
80.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
79.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
79.2%
Jack Browning 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22INT
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:0126% → 27%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
73.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
74.5%
Doug Brumfield run for 6 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+23
73.5%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 23 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
70.6%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 7 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
68.0%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+24
70.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 24 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
70.0%
Aidan Robbins run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
70.0%
Doug Brumfield run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 12Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
73.4%
Doug Brumfield pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3383% → 82%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
82.7%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
82.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+5
81.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 5 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 9
OWN 21
-14
81.5%
Jack Browning run for a loss of 14 yards to the SDSt 14 Jack Browning fumbled, recovered by SDSt Jack BrowningSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0127% → 34%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
73.1%
Aidan Robbins run for no gain to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
73.1%
Aidan Robbins run for no gain to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+3
76.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 3 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
65.7%
Daniel Gutierrez 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0872% → 71%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
71.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Personal Foul (Tavis Malakius) to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
75.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for no gain to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
73.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-4
72.1%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Jalen Dixon for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
70.6%
Jack Browning punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:5131% → 34%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+22
69.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 22 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
66.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+9
64.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 9 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
62.8%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
62.4%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 1 yd to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
62.9%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
66.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 40 yds, downed at the SDSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27END OF GAME
15 plays · 79 yds · 5:4179% → 97%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
78.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 11 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
80.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 9 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
81.1%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+17
79.2%
Jaylon Armstead run for 17 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
89.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for 11 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
89.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 8 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
93.3%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
93.6%
Jaylon Armstead run for 6 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
95.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+14
95.6%
Jaylon Armstead run for 14 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
96.8%
Kneel down by MAYDEN, Jalen at NLV15 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:41
Jordan Byrd run for 11 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST down
+12.8
TD · Q3 5:11
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 70 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 10:55
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 24 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com