San Diego State

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0219th
  Defense−0.0394th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense38.6%19th
  Defense34.0%98th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1921st
  Defense+1.2548th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0125th
  Defense−0.0381st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0527th
  Defense−0.0293rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.3%23rd
  Defense38.4%99th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense27.0%20th
  Defense25.9%91st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6018th
  Defense2.1098th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense24.3%10th
  Defense29.4%99th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense18.5%24th
  Defense21.2%97th

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UNLV
2. W
   USU
3. L
   SJSU
4. W
   HAW
5. L
   NEV
6. L
   COLO
7. W
   CSU
8. L
   BYU

Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego State.

Players, 2020

1. Greg BellRB104 plays · +0.219 pts/play · 41st of 338 RBs
   0.43WAR0.34 to 0.51
2. Jordon BrookshireQB98 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 134th of 212 QBs
   0.18WAR0.03 to 0.36
3. Chance BellRB54 plays · +0.175 pts/play · 180th of 338 RBs
   0.18WAR0.14 to 0.22
4. Carson BakerQB107 plays · +0.077 pts/play · 145th of 212 QBs
   0.15WAR0.00 to 0.31
5. Jesse MatthewsWR39 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 81st of 409 WRs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.17
6. Kaegun WilliamsRB39 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 239th of 338 RBs
   0.12WAR0.09 to 0.15
7. Jordan ByrdRB32 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 254th of 338 RBs
   0.09WAR0.07 to 0.11
8. Lucas JohnsonQB29 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 190th of 212 QBs
   0.05WAR0.00 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San Diego State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  45545583rd of 127Roster talent: 455, 83rd of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15015083rd of 127Recruiting: 150, 83rd of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  63%63%64th of 127Returning production: 63%, 64th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +5.3+5.346th of 127SP+ rating: +5.3, 46th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.13 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs CSUQ3 13:14 4th & 7 at CSU 15, up 6Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−6.0 pts
2. vs CSUQ3 10:49 4th & 23 at CSU 30, up 6Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−3.3 pts
3. vs CSUQ4 12:21 4th & 3 at CSU 3, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
4. vs CSUQ3 15:00 4th & 1 at SDSU 39, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
5. vs UNLVQ2 0:56 4th & 1 at UNLV 10, up 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at NEVQ4 5:02 4th & 9 at SDSU 35, down 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. at COLOQ4 3:12 4th & 13 at SDSU 47, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs UNLVQ3 7:20 4th & 1 at SDSU 40, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

94th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San Diego State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UNLV
2. W

   USU
3. L

   SJSU
4. W

   HAW
5. L

   NEV
6. L

   COLO
7. W

   CSU
8. L

   BYU

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at San Diego State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.40
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.03
• Timeouts−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.27

Game by game

• UNLVW 34-6 vs UNLV78% → 100%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +24
• USUW 38-7 at USU78% → 100%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +28, Clock +1
• SJSUL 17-28 vs SJSU77% → 2%Before kickoff +27 · On the field −74: Scoreboard −60, Clock −4
• HAWW 34-10 vs HAW77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +26
• NEVL 21-26 at NEV52% → 5%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −1
• COLOL 10-20 at COLO36% → 3%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −2
• CSUW 29-17 vs CSU69% → 98%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +1
• BYUL 14-28 at BYU12% → 1%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from San Diego State's side.

Closest call

TOL 14-17 SDSU (2022) - San Diego State dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.