San Diego State

Profile vs. FBS, 2016

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1669th
  Defense−0.0494th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.1%65th
  Defense37.1%88th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2254th
  Defense+1.2528th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1780th
  Defense−0.0689th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1855th
  Defense−0.0292nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.3%71st
  Defense42.3%86th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.7%49th
  Defense28.1%91st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8435th
  Defense2.5086th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.8%39th
  Defense20.3%57th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.0%65th
  Defense18.0%74th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2016

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UNH
2. W
   CAL
3. W
   NIU
4. L
   USA
5. W
   UNLV
6. W
   FRES
7. W
   SJSU
8. W
   USU
9. W
   HAW
10. W
    NEV
11. L
    WYO
12. L
    CSU
13. W
    WYO
14. W
    HOU

Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego State.

Players, 2016

1. Donnel PumphreyRB316 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 2nd of 347 RBs
   1.08WAR0.72 to 1.38
2. Christian ChapmanQB258 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 91st of 218 QBs
   0.92WAR0.49 to 1.34
3. Rashaad PennyRB108 plays · +0.203 pts/play · 79th of 347 RBs
   0.41WAR0.27 to 0.54
4. Tanner BlainP43 plays · +0.240 pts/play · 22nd of 82 punters
   0.19WAR0.12 to 0.29
5. John Baron IIPK18 plays · +0.491 pts/play · 17th of 116 kickers
   0.17WAR0.12 to 0.21
6. Mikah HolderWR35 plays · +0.188 pts/play · 169th of 417 WRs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.17
7. David WellsTE26 plays · +0.066 pts/play · 29th of 195 TEs
   0.03WAR−0.01 to 0.07
8. Eric JudgeWR17 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 374th of 417 WRs
   0.03WAR0.02 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San Diego State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2016

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  48248274th of 128Roster talent: 482, 74th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15115175th of 128Recruiting: 151, 75th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  57%57%85th of 128Returning production: 57%, 85th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +11.4+11.431st of 128SP+ rating: +11.4, 31st of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2016

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at WYOQ4 6:54 4th & 2 at WYO 3, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
2. vs HOUQ3 10:46 4th & 2 at HOU 46, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
3. at WYOQ2 6:26 4th & 1 at SDSU 40, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
4. vs CSUQ2 4:59 4th & 1 at SDSU 40, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. at NIUQ4 4:16 4th & 4 at NIU 38, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
6. at NIUQ2 3:52 4th & 1 at SDSU 47, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs HAWQ3 13:29 4th & 22 at HAW 34, up 27Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs UNLVQ4 9:55 4th & 1 at UNLV 47, up 19Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2016

56th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San Diego State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 13 of 14 games; one has no play-by-play to score.

1. W

   UNH
2. W

   CAL
3. W

   NIU
4. L

   USA
5. W

   UNLV
6. W

   FRES
7. W

   SJSU
8. W

   USU
9. W

   HAW
10. W

    NEV
11. L

    WYO
12. L

    CSU
13. W

    WYO
14. W

    HOU

What moved it, 2016

Every game starts at San Diego State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.54
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.27

Game by game

• CALW 45-40 vs CAL71% → 94%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +28, Timeouts +2
• NIUW 42-28 at NIU70% → 97%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +39, Clock +1
• USAL 24-42 at USA86% → 1%Before kickoff +36 · On the field −85: Scoreboard −55, Clock −1
• UNLVW 26-7 vs UNLV87% → 98%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts −1
• FRESW 17-3 at FRES87% → 99%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +23, Clock +1
• SJSUW 42-3 vs SJSU92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +11
• USUW 40-13 at USU57% → 100%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +47, Clock +1
• HAWW 55-0 vs HAW88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +15
• NEVW 46-16 at NEV89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +17
• WYOL 33-34 at WYO69% → 31%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −9, Possession & field position +2
• CSUL 31-63 vs CSU79% → 0%Before kickoff +29 · On the field −79: Scoreboard −70, Clock −1
• WYOW 27-24 at WYO68% → 95%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +38, Clock +2
• HOUW 34-10 vs HOU37% → 100%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +63: Scoreboard +53, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from San Diego State's side.

Closest call

TOL 14-17 SDSU (2022) - San Diego State dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.