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SDSU

San Diego State 17 at Fresno State 3

FRES
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2016 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the FrsSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior−36.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q1 8:42: Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 3 — FRES win probability +2.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 15:00: Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson — FRES win probability +2.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q3 9:54: Kody Kroening 39 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +4.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:09: Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:02: Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 16 — SDSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 8SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at FRES 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:21SDSU 4th & 6 at FRES 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.8%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:06FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 32, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:16SDSU 4th & 11 at FRES 37, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:22FRES 4th & 8 at SDSU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:54FRES 4th & 3 at SDSU 22, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:44SDSU 4th & 18 at FRES 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%−1.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:00FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 13 at SDSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:02SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:54FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:16SDSU 4th & 8 at FRES 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:37FRES 4th & 7 at SDSU 41, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%
    32% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:15SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:09SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 75 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
13.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+6
13.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
13.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 14 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
13.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
13.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
13.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+5
13.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+4
13.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
13.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
13.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
13.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
13.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the FrsSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
16.3%
Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
16.3%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
16.1%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Damontae Kazee return for no gain to the FrsSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:1084% → 82%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
16.4%
Christian Chapman run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+7
16.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
16.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
16.3%
Christian Chapman run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-1
17.7%
Christian Chapman sacked by Nela Otukolo and Tobenna Okeke for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
18.1%
John Baron II 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:1318% → 20%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
18.0%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+7
18.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+3
17.8%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
18.1%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+10
18.0%
Dontel James run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
18.0%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
18.2%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
18.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 3 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
20.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
20.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3480% → 83%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
19.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 12 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
19.2%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+14
19.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Parker Houston for 14 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
19.0%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+11
19.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
19.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
18.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 14 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
18.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+8
18.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
17.3%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+8
17.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 8 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+2
17.1%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
17.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 37 yds · 2:5983% → 82%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
17.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+4
17.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
16.9%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
17.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
16.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 9 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
16.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+11
16.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
16.7%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
16.8%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 11
OPP 37
-5
17.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 16
OPP 42
0
17.5%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 16
OPP 42
+5
18.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
17.6%
Tanner Blain punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8INT
6 plays · 50 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
18.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+43
18.4%
Chason Virgil run for 28 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Malik Smith) to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
20.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for no gain to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
19.9%
Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
19.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Noble HallSimilar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
18.8%
Blake Cusick pass intercepted Derek Babiash return for no gain to the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0082% → 83%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
17.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 10 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
17.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 5:0617% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
16.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
16.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 6 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+4
16.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
17.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
17.1%
Dontel James run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+4
17.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
18.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+1
18.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 1 yd to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+22
17.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 22 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
19.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron Peck, broken up by Derek BabiashSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
19.4%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+6
18.4%
Chason Virgil run for 6 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
22.9%
Kody Kroening 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
20.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+22
20.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 22 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
18.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
18.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
18.4%
Christian Chapman run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
18.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 5 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
18.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-1
18.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-15
18.5%
CHAPMAN, Christ rush for no gain to the FS32 (OTUKOLO, Nela), PENALTY SDSU personal foul (BRUNSKILL, Dani) 15 yards to the FS47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 20
OPP 47
+2
20.1%
Christian Chapman run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 18
OPP 45
0
21.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
22.1%
VIRGIL, Chason pass complete to JOHNSON, KeeSea for 17 yards to the FS30 (SMITH, Malik;BARRETT, Alex), PENALTY FS holding (RIDDERING, Kyle) 6 yards to the FS7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 16
OWN 7
0
21.9%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 16
OWN 7
0
21.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 16
OWN 7
+10
20.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
20.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:2882% → 92%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
18.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 8
50
0
17.9%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey, broken up by Tyquwan GlassSimilar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 8
50
+9
18.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
17.8%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
17.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+1
17.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
17.5%
Christian Chapman run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
17.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
7.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
10.3%
JAMES, Dontel rush for 3 yards to the FS32 (DUNN, Ryan;BABIASH, Derek), PENALTY FS holding (RIDDERING, Kyle) 10 yards to the FS19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+2
10.0%
Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+23
9.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 8 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Billy Vaughn Jr) to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
11.5%
Chason Virgil run for 11 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
12.0%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
11.8%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-8
11.7%
Chason Virgil sacked by Kyle Kelley for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
10.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds , Quest Truxton returns for no gain to the SDSt 10 Quest Truxton fumbled, recovered by SDSt Quest TruxtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
6.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+1
6.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+1
6.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 18Similar
Q4 11:02
4TH & 2
OWN 18
-5
6.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 11:02
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
6.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
6.4%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
6.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 3 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
6.4%
Chason Virgil run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 1
OWN 39
-5
6.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
6.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 4:4995% → 98%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
4.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
4.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
4.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
4.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
4.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
4.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
2.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
2.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
2.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-1
2.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
2.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 33 yds, downed at the FrsSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18INT
7 plays · 52 yds · 0:263% → 2%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
2.6%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+49
2.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 49 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
3.0%
Chason Virgil sacked by Alex Barrett for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 14
OPP 48
0
2.3%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+7
2.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+20
2.3%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Kameron Kelly return for 20 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-1
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:09
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
-9.8
FG · Q3 9:54
Kody Kroening 39 yd FG GOOD
+4.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:02
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 16
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com