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CAL

California 40 at San Diego State 45

SDSU
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:55 · Tanner Blain punt for 50 yds , Khalfani Muhammad returns for no gain to the Cal 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Pregame prior+3.8Home team on offense+7.2Garbage-time factor+2.9Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:22: Davis Webb pass intercepted for a TD Ronley Lakalaka return for 9 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:40: Donnel Pumphrey run for 57 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:52: Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 59 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +9.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:27: Matt Anderson 36 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +7.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:56: Davis Webb pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CAL win probability +17.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:45SDSU 4th & 4 at CAL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:41CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:19SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:42SDSU 4th & 11 at CAL 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:22CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 49, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:38SDSU 4th & 2 at CAL 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.5
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:12CAL 4th & 16 at CAL 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:52SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:56CAL 4th & 9 at SDSU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−6.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:27CAL 4th & 4 at SDSU 19, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−11.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:34CAL 4th & 5 at SDSU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:55SDSU 4th & 27 at SDSU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−8.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:14CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 24, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:56CAL 4th & 7 at SDSU 40, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−6.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−7.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:11SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:19CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:03SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:31CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:22SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 11:20CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:22SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:40SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:52CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:47SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:56CAL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.6%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
70.6%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
70.6%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+25
70.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 47 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 25 yds to the Cal 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:1871% → 70%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
70.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
70.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 6 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
70.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
70.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-8
70.6%
Christian Chapman sacked by DeVante Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+16
70.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 16 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
70.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
69.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 5 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
69.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 5 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
69.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
69.6%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-10
69.7%
Webb, Davis pass complete to Veasy, Jordan for 55 yards to the SDSU3 (BABIASH, Derek), PENALTY CAL holding 10 yards to the CAL32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+9
70.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 9 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+18
70.0%
Dylan Klumph punt for 40 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 18 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
69.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+5
69.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 5 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
69.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
69.1%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+45
69.0%
Tanner Blain punt for 45 yds CALIFORNIA Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 2 yds Jordan Veasy fumbled, forced by Randy Ricks, recovered by SDSt Na'im McGeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
72.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 25 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:5228% → 33%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
71.7%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Derek BabiashSimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+35
72.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 35 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
70.9%
Vic Enwere run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+13
71.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Patrick Worstell for 13 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
67.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 33 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3228% → 34%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
71.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
71.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 8 yds to the Cal 38 CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
72.0%
Vic Enwere run for 12 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
71.6%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
71.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 6 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+7
71.1%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
65.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 49 yds for a TD SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0968% → 74%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
68.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+33
68.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 33 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
69.6%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+8
69.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 8 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
69.7%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
73.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 33 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0228% → 37%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
72.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 13 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
71.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
71.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 8 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+6
70.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 6 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
70.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Patrick Worstell for 8 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+9
70.4%
Vic Enwere run for 9 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
70.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+10
70.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 10 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
63.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 21 yds for a TD SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 40 yds · 4:3867% → 66%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
67.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
67.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah Holder, broken up by Darius AllensworthSimilar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+12
66.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 12 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
67.6%
Juwan Washington run for 11 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
67.3%
PENNY, Rashaad rush for 18 yards to the CAL36 (Allensworth, Darius), PENALTY SDSU holding off-setting, PENALTY CAL personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
68.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 6
50
+10
69.1%
Juwan Washington run for 10 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
69.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+1
68.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+3
68.3%
Christian Chapman run for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
67.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete, broken up by Devante DownsSimilar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
65.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
74.1%
Davis Webb pass intercepted for a TD Ronley Lakalaka return for 9 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
72.9%
Davis Webb sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+15
74.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 15 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
72.3%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
72.9%
Davis Webb punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:4774% → 78%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
74.2%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
73.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 12 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
74.4%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+6
74.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 6 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
75.7%
Christian Chapman run for 7 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
75.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 7 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
76.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 15 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
76.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
76.2%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+8
75.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 8 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+39
78.2%
John Baron II 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:2622% → 19%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
78.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 13 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
77.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 16 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
76.9%
Davis Webb sacked by Alex Barrett for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 16
OWN 47
0
80.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic EnwereSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 16
OWN 47
0
80.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic EnwereSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
80.9%
Dylan Klumph punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
79.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
79.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-10
79.9%
PUMPHREY, Donnel rush for 3 yards to the SDSU43 (Vanderbilt, Khari), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+10
78.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
79.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
77.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 35 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for no gain to the Cal 25 Vic Wharton III fumbled, forced by Parker Baldwin,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18INT
12 plays · 52 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.5%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.6%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
80.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 12 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
78.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 3 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+15
78.4%
Webb, Davis pass incomplete to Veasy, Jordan, PENALTY SDSU pass interference 15 yards to the SDSU45, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
77.6%
Vic Enwere run for 16 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
76.3%
Vic Enwere run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
76.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+12
78.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 12 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
76.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
76.6%
Davis Webb run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 23Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 15
OPP 23
0
78.7%
Davis Webb pass intercepted, touchback. Kameron Kelly return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:1181% → 92%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
80.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
81.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+57
92.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 57 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4810% → 20%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.7%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
89.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 9 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
79.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 59 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
81.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
81.3%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
80.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
79.7%
Tanner Blain punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:4819% → 24%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
80.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 18 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
79.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
78.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+8
79.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 8 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
77.8%
Webb, Davis pass incomplete to Hansen, Chad (BABIASH, Derek), PENALTY CAL holding 10 yards to the SDSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+5
80.0%
Webb, Davis pass incomplete to Robertson, Demetris, PENALTY SDSU offside 5 yards to the SDSU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+6
78.9%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
78.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Tre Watson for no gain to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
79.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
76.5%
Matt Anderson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:5680% → 85%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
79.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Curtis Anderson III for 3 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
79.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+14
79.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 14 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
81.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-1
82.0%
Christian Chapman run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
84.9%
Christian Chapman pass intercepted Evan Rambo return for no gain to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:2924% → 33%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
75.8%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+22
74.9%
Vic Enwere run for 22 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
72.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise Stovall, broken up by Kameron KellySimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
73.3%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
74.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Patrick WorstellSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
67.1%
Matt Anderson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0073% → 75%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
73.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 6 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
73.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
75.1%
Christian Chapman run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 37 Christian Chapman fumbled, recovered by Cal Luke RubenzerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
64.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
64.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 5 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
64.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
67.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Derek BabiashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:0073% → 70%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
73.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
76.4%
PUMPHREY, Donnel rush for 8 yards to the CAL41 (Mekari, Tony), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+4
73.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 16
OWN 45
-5
73.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 21
OWN 40
-10
73.4%
CHAPMAN, Christian pass complete to PUMPHREY, Donnel for 12 yards to the CAL48 (Allensworth, Darius), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 31
OWN 30
0
72.6%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 31
OWN 30
+4
70.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 27
OWN 34
0
70.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 50 yds , Khalfani Muhammad returns for no gain to the Cal 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 27%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
70.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Bug RiveraSimilar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+8
71.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 8 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
70.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+3
73.1%
Dylan Klumph punt for 52 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 27 Quest Truxton fumbled, forced by Ashtyn Davis, recovered by SDSt Quest TruxtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 29TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:2879% → 97%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
78.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
81.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+10
81.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 10 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
82.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+31
82.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 31 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
83.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
90.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Cal 4Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
96.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 30TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 1:514% → 24%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
95.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 6 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
95.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
95.5%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+5
96.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
95.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 7 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
95.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 4 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
94.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Tre Watson for 10 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
94.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
94.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 14 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+31
94.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 31 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 31INT
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:3318% → 18%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
82.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 10 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
80.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
81.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Patrick Worstell for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
81.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+11
83.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 11 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
79.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 7 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
79.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
81.9%
Davis Webb pass intercepted Damontae Kazee return for no gain to the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
94.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:56
Davis Webb pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-17.2
TD · Q3 8:40
Donnel Pumphrey run for 57 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q3 7:52
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 59 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com