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CSU

Colorado State 63 at San Diego State 31

SDSU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.5SDSU 71.4%John Baron II 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 21 - HOME 17 · Q2 11:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:39 · John Baron II 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Home team on offense−1.1Pregame prior+20.8Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:07: Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:14: Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 18 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:24: Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:15: Nick Stevens pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 5 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +23.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:53: Detrich Clark pass complete to Michael Gallup for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:31SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:11CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:39SDSU 4th & 10 at CSU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−5.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:59SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 40, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 38, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−3.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:21CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−4.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:31SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 43, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:47SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 34, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:02CSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 47, up 39
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:50CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 34, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:35CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:12CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:41SDSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:07CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:11SDSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:14CSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:24SDSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:15CSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:53CSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:59CSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:54CSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:50SDSU Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:2521% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
79.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 24 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
79.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
79.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+5
79.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
77.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 35 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.8%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
77.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+6
77.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 6 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+30
77.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ColSt Tyree SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:2723% → 27%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
76.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
76.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
76.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
76.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+19
75.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 19 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
72.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 27 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:2574% → 75%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
74.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+11
74.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 11 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
74.2%
Christian Chapman run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
74.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+25
74.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 25 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:2926% → 33%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
73.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+28
73.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 28 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
73.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+6
73.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
73.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+35
73.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 35 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:4968% → 71%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
68.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+8
68.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 8 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
68.2%
Kendrick Mathis run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+23
67.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
69.0%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to David Wells, broken up by Jake SchlagerSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+26
68.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 11 yds to the SANDIEGOST 42 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
69.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
66.9%
Christian Chapman run for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+25
71.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 25 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
69.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 22 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
70.0%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
70.4%
Hayden Hunt punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:5171% → 71%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
50
0
70.8%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
50
+16
69.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 16 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
70.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 17 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
70.6%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
70.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Nick BawdenSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
69.9%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Rashaad PennySimilar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
71.4%
John Baron II 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:2030% → 43%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
70.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+22
69.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 22 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
68.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
68.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+6
69.2%
Detrich Clark run for 6 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
68.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
68.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
69.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
56.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 18 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1058% → 47%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
57.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-1
57.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
56.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 8 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+91
46.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 51 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 91 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:2946% → 58%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
45.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+9
45.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 9 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+37
45.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 37 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
49.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
48.8%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Quest TruxtonSimilar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+25
48.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 25 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
57.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0147% → 73%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
53.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 14 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
51.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+41
51.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 41 yds to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
50.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
27.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 5 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
37.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 13 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Quest TruxtonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
35.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
34.5%
Christian Chapman run for 12 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
36.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 12 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
37.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
37.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-12
37.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 43
-5
35.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 38
0
35.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
26.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
26.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-10
26.6%
CLARK, Detrich rush for 5 yards to the CS38 (MUNSON, Calvin;LOMAX, Trey), PENALTY CS holding 10 yards to the CS23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 13
OWN 23
0
27.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 13
OWN 23
+6
27.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 53 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 6 yds to the SDSt 29 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.1%
Christian Chapman pass intercepted Jamal Hicks return for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 4:2179% → 97%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
21.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+8
21.1%
Detrich Clark run for 8 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
21.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 6 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+3
21.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
21.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
21.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 8 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-1
21.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 6Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
2.9%
Detrich Clark pass complete to Michael Gallup for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:153% → 2%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
2.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
2.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-2
2.0%
Christian Chapman run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+11
1.6%
Christian Chapman run for 11 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
2.0%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 1:2799% → 99%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
1.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 15 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
1.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+27
1.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 27 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
1.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-4
1.2%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 38 Rashaad Penny fumbled, forced by Evan Colorito, recovered by ColSt Colton FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
1.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 10 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
1.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+13
1.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
0.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the SDSt 4Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
0.4%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-10
0.3%
WASHINGTON, Juwan rush for 9 yards to the SDSU46 (JOHNSON, Shun), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+4
0.4%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+3
0.3%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
0.3%
Tanner Blain punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
0.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
0.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+9
0.5%
Detrich Clark run for 9 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
0.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
0.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
0.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
0.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
0.1%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+5
0.1%
Ryan Agnew run for 5 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+81
0.1%
Juwan Washington run for 81 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
0.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
0.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-5
0.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+3
0.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
0.1%
Ryan Agnew run for 1 yd to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+2
0.1%
Fred Melifonwu run for 2 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+6
0.1%
Fred Melifonwu run for 6 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:15
Nick Stevens pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 5 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-23.4
TD · Q3 4:53
Detrich Clark pass complete to Michael Gallup for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-18.2
TD · Q2 7:14
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 18 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com