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SDSU

San Diego State 46 at Nevada 16

NEV
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:13 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:03: John Baron II 28 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +2.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:19: Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:53: Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 6 yds for a TD, (John Baron II PAT BLOCKED) — SDSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:03: John Baron II 31 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:43: Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 17 yds for a TD, (John Baron II PAT BLOCKED) — SDSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 2:03SDSU 4th & 11 at NEV 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:11SDSU 4th & 5 at NEV 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    82.7%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:53NEV 4th & 17 at SDSU 45, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 3 at SDSU 25, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:43NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 27, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  7. Q4 7:34NEV 4th & 9 at SDSU 37, down 30
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:32SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:32NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:19SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:53SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:43SDSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:50SDSU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:06NEV Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:34SDSU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2889% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
10.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
10.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 12 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
10.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
10.9%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+16
10.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 16 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
11.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 40 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0012% → 14%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
11.6%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+35
11.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 35 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
11.7%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+1
11.7%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+12
11.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
11.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 2 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
11.7%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+12
12.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
12.8%
James Butler run for no gain to the SDSt 6Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
12.8%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to SCOTT, Brandon, PENALTY NEV personal foul (BUTLER, James) 15 yards to the SDSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 0
OWN 21
0
14.1%
Hasaan Henderson 0 Yd Fumble Return (Spencer Pettit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:2986% → 84%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
14.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+34
14.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 34 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
13.5%
Christian Chapman run for 10 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
13.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+17
13.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 17 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
13.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Nevad 1Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
13.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
13.6%
Christian Chapman sacked by Asauni Rufus for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
15.9%
John Baron II 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 1:5716% → 17%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
15.9%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
15.8%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+11
15.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 11 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
16.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 10 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
16.6%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
17.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 1 yd to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
17.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
16.6%
Alex Boy punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
17.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+11
16.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
16.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 11 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
16.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
16.2%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
16.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Rashaad Penny, broken up by Dameon BaberSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
16.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
18.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
18.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Parker BaldwinSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+9
17.7%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Ron Smith return for 9 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:4983% → 86%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
16.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+10
16.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.3%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
14.5%
Ty Gangi run for 10 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
14.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jarred Gipson for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+14
14.5%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Parker Baldwin return for 14 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:3586% → 91%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
14.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
14.6%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+22
14.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 22 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
14.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
14.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
14.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 6Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
8.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 6 yds for a TD, (John Baron II PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.4%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
11.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to James Butler for 3 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
11.6%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
11.7%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+25
11.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brandon Scott for 25 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
12.2%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
12.2%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-8
12.1%
Ty Gangi sacked by Sergio Phillips for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
11.6%
Alex Boy punt for 36 yds, downed at the SDSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 77 yds · 1:4291% → 94%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
8.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
8.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 18 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
8.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 6 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+4
7.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 4 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
7.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+16
8.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 16 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
7.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+16
7.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 16 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
7.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
7.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 11 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+31
6.3%
John Baron II 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 59 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
8.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
8.5%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the Nevad 17Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+15
8.5%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY SDSU personal foul (HALL, Noble) 15 yards to the NEV32, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
8.8%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
8.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+12
8.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to James Butler for 12 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
9.4%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
9.5%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+19
9.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 19 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
9.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
10.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+3
9.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
9.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Andrew Celis, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4095% → 98%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
5.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
5.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
5.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+18
5.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 18 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
5.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 19 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
4.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+6
4.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+17
1.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 17 yds for a TD, (John Baron II PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
2.1%
EJ Muhammad return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.0%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Austin Corbett) to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
3.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 7 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
3.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Dominic ChristianSimilar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
3.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+45
3.0%
Alex Boy punt for 45 yds , Quest Truxton returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:5298% → 99%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
2.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+72
1.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 72 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:441% → 2%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.3%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
1.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
1.3%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
1.3%
Ty Gangi run for 2 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
1.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 9 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
0.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 6 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
0.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
2.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 40 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 82 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
1.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (David Wells) to the SDSt 8Similar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 19
OWN 8
+4
1.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+3
1.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+42
1.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 42 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
1.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+31
1.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 31 yds to the Nevad 1 Rashaad Penny fumbled, forced by EJ Muhammad, recovered by Nevad Alex BertrandoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19INT
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
1.7%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the Nevad 2Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
1.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+39
1.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Victor Gonzalez for 39 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
1.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 2 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
1.9%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Kameron Kelly return for 6 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 1:2699% → 100%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
1.1%
Juwan Washington run for 12 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
1.1%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+45
0.2%
Juwan Washington run for 45 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
0.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
0.2%
Blake Wright run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
50
-5
0.2%
Blake Wright run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+6
0.2%
Blake Wright run for 6 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+11
0.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 11 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete, broken up by Parker BaldwinSimilar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
0.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
0.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Parker BaldwinSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
0.2%
Alex Boy punt for 27 yds, downed at the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
0.2%
Juwan Washington run for 11 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
0.1%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:53
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 6 yds for a TD, (John Baron II PAT BLOCKED)
-4.7
TD · Q3 4:43
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 17 yds for a TD, (John Baron II PAT BLOCKED)
-3.9
TD · Q2 10:19
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
-2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com