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HOU

Houston 10 at San Diego State 34

SDSU
2016 · Las Vegas Bowl · Dec 17, 2016 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:46 · Tanner Blain punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense−2.3Pregame prior−5.7Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:22: Greg Ward Jr. 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +4.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:29: John Baron II 28 Yd Field Goal — SDSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:14: Donnel Pumphrey 32 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick) — SDSU win probability +24.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:56: Ron Smith 54 Yd Interception Return (John Baron II Kick) — SDSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:58: Curtis Anderson III 28 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick) — SDSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:17SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:08HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:09SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:38HOU 4th & 9 at SDSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:12SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:29SDSU 4th & 22 at SDSU 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:54HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 22, up 10
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:28SDSU 4th & 4 at HOU 5, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:21HOU 4th & 17 at HOU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−2.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:29SDSU 4th & 6 at HOU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−7.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:46SDSU 4th & 2 at HOU 46, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%−4.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:41HOU 4th & 17 at HOU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:18SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:03HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:53HOU 4th & 10 at SDSU 48, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:08SDSU 4th & 4 at HOU 46, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:57HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 29, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4HOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:22HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:14SDSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:56SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:58SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:11SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2837% → 37%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
36.9%
Christian Chapman sacked by Tyus Bowser for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 19Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+6
37.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
37.1%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
37.4%
Tanner Blain punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5263% → 62%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
37.5%
Keith Corbin run for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
37.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 3 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
37.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
38.0%
Dane Roy punt for 46 yds , Quest Truxton returns for no gain to the SDSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:4638% → 38%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
38.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 14Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 14
-3
38.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 14
OWN 11
-6
38.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 5Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 20
OWN 5
0
38.3%
Tanner Blain punt for 33 yds, downed at the SDSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:0762% → 61%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
38.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
38.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+4
38.3%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
38.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Duke CatalonSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-2
38.2%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Noble Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+14
38.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Brandon Wilson for 14 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
38.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the SDSt 15Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
38.4%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the SDSt 14Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
39.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
38.9%
Ty Cummings 31 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0539% → 39%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
39.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
38.9%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
38.6%
Tanner Blain punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:3761% → 66%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
39.5%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
39.4%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+7
39.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 7 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
39.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 9 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
38.9%
Brandon Wilson run for no gain to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
38.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
38.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+7
38.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+32
38.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Keith Corbin for 32 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.3%
Greg Ward Jr. 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:3935% → 33%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
34.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+8
34.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 8 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
34.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+5
34.0%
Blain, Tanner punt 45 yards to the HOUSTON21, fair catch by Wilder, Collin, PENALTY HOUSTON running into kicker (Oliver, Ed) 5 yards to the SANDIEGOST39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST.Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
34.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 20 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
35.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 5 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-4
35.1%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-13
34.6%
Christian Chapman sacked by Khalil Williams for a loss of 13 yards to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 22
OWN 47
0
32.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1365% → 65%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
34.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 13
OWN 10
0
34.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+12
35.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 12 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
35.1%
Dane Roy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:5734% → 35%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
33.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 30 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
35.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
35.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Parker Houston for 5 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+11
34.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 11 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
35.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+1
34.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the Houst 6Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+1
33.1%
Ryan Agnew run for 1 yd to the Houst 5Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
35.2%
John Baron II 23 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4566% → 64%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.7%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
33.9%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
34.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jay Henderson for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+14
35.6%
Dane Roy punt for 33 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 14 yds to the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:4037% → 39%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
36.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
37.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+8
37.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
37.4%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 12
OPP 17
-5
37.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Kwayde Miller) to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 17
OPP 22
+11
36.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
36.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
38.5%
John Baron II 28 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4762% → 62%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
37.7%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
37.7%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:3962% → 64%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
37.6%
Duke Catalon run for 6 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+4
36.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 4 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
36.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Kameron Kelly return for no gain to the SDSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4641% → 41%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
40.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+9
40.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 9 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
42.6%
Pumphrey, Donnel rush for loss of 4 yards to the SANDIEGOST42, PENALTY HOUSTON offside 5 yards to the HOUSTON49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 5
OPP 49
0
43.5%
Christian Chapman run for no gain to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
43.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
43.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
41.4%
Tanner Blain punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15INT
11 plays · 58 yds · 5:1861% → 65%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
38.9%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 11Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+7
39.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 7 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+20
40.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 20 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
37.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
36.5%
Brandon Wilson run for 4 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
36.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
50
+1
35.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Keith Corbin for 1 yd to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+18
34.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Keith Corbin for 18 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
33.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 1 yd to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
33.0%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+12
34.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Calvin Munson return for 12 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:5439% → 64%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
39.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Kwayde Miller) to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+3
37.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+12
37.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 12 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
39.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 26 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
63.8%
Donnel Pumphrey 32 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17INT TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:0841% → 25%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
59.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 12 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
57.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 9 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
54.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
54.9%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 8 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+54
75.2%
Ron Smith 54 Yd Interception Return (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:5120% → 16%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.2%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
79.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
80.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
79.6%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+3
81.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Brandon Wilson for 3 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-5
82.7%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Kyle Kelley for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+2
84.0%
Dane Roy punt for 43 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0883% → 84%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
83.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
85.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
84.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-3
84.3%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
83.6%
Tanner Blain punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5614% → 13%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
85.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
85.2%
Brandon Wilson run for 2 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
85.8%
Brandon Wilson run for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 1
OWN 31
-3
87.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
96.0%
Curtis Anderson III 28 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:445% → 4%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
95.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 12 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-11
95.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jay Henderson and Austin Wyatt-Thayer for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 21
OWN 41
+11
96.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 11 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
95.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
96.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1597% → 98%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.0%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
97.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 8
50
+4
97.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
97.7%
Tanner Blain punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Collin Wilder at the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:522% → 2%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
97.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 3 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+14
97.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 14 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
97.6%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Ronley Lakalaka for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 18
OWN 19
-9
97.8%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Alex Barrett for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 10Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 27
OWN 10
+19
98.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Brandon Wilson for 19 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 8
OWN 29
-8
98.0%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:1099% → 100%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
98.7%
Juwan Washington run for 13 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.7%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the Houst 5Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
99.1%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 7Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Juwan Washington 7 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:220% → 0%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Brandon Wilson for 3 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+13
99.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Brandon Wilson for 13 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
99.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Kameron Kelly return for 21 yds to the Houst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:14
Donnel Pumphrey 32 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)
+24.4
TD · Q3 0:56
Ron Smith 54 Yd Interception Return (John Baron II Kick)
+19
TD · Q4 8:58
Curtis Anderson III 28 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com