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SDSU

San Diego State 24 at South Alabama 42

USA
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:07 · Tanner Blain punt for 43 yds , Dami Ayoola returns for no gain to the SAlab 37 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Dj Daniels) to the SAlab 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior−35.8Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:08: Gerald Everett 79 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick) — USA win probability +13.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:06: Kahale Warring 12 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (Christian Chapman Pass to David Wells for Two-Point Conversion) — SDSU win probability +17.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:58: Josh Magee 20 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick) — USA win probability +25.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:02: Dami Ayoola 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick) — USA win probability +19.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:17: Devon Earl 80 Yd Fumble Return (Gavin Patterson Kick) — USA win probability +8.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:07SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:04SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:38USA 4th & 25 at USA 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:13SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:43USA 4th & 25 at USA 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−1.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:31USA 4th & 6 at USA 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:54SDSU 4th & 21 at SDSU 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−5.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:41USA 4th & 2 at USA 23, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.6
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:00SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.3%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:42SDSU 4th & 1 at USA 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:05USA 4th & 3 at USA 44, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:25SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 26, down 18
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 10:38USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:03SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:45SDSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:08USA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:06SDSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:58USA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:02USA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:17USA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4886% → 86%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
14.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
14.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
14.3%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
14.4%
Tanner Blain punt for 43 yds , Dami Ayoola returns for no gain to the SAlab 37 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Dj Daniels) to the SAlab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:0715% → 17%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
14.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+3
14.7%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
14.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Brandon McKeeSimilar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+15
14.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
15.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Gerald Everett for 5 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
15.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 9 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
15.9%
Cole Garvin run for 13 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
16.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Josh Magee for 31 yds to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
17.2%
Tyreis Thomas run for 12 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2183% → 82%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
17.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+1
17.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
18.0%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+19
18.4%
Tanner Blain punt for 49 yds , Dami Ayoola returns for 19 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 2:2018% → 20%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
18.4%
Tyreis Thomas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-15
18.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Steve McKenzie) to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 23
OWN 30
-6
19.4%
Cole Garvin sacked by Kyle Kelley for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 29
OWN 24
+4
19.5%
Cole Garvin run for 4 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 25
OWN 28
0
19.7%
Brandon McKee punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:3281% → 82%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+33
19.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 33 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
18.0%
Rashaad Penny 15 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2819% → 25%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
19.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Josh Magee for 14 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
19.5%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
19.8%
Dami Ayoola run for 5 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
20.5%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
50
0
21.3%
Deonta Moore run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
50
+5
21.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Calvin Munson) to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
21.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 1 yd to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+7
24.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 7 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4774% → 73%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
25.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
26.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
26.7%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+61
27.4%
Tanner Blain punt for 53 yds, downed at the SOUTHALA 16 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Diantae Thomas) to the SAlab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 4:1726% → 30%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
26.3%
Dami Ayoola run for no gain to the SAlab 8Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
26.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Tyrone WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+13
25.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Gerald Everett for 13 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
27.3%
Milton Revell run for 1 yd to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
27.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+12
27.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 12 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
28.9%
Cole Garvin sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 16
OWN 28
0
29.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Gerald Everett for no gain to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 16
OWN 28
-9
29.9%
Cole Garvin sacked by Noble Hall for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 25
OWN 19
+32
29.6%
Brandon McKee punt for 53 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 32 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:4770% → 76%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+36
30.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 36 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
29.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 7Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
23.9%
Donnel Pumphrey 7 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0327% → 28%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 5 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
27.7%
Cole Garvin run for 4 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
29.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
27.9%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
27.8%
Brandon McKee punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:1171% → 72%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
28.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+13
28.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 13 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-9
28.3%
Christian Chapman sacked by Kalen Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 30 Christian Chapman fumbled, forced by Kalen Jackson, recovered by SAlab Sir Calvin Wallace , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12INT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:3934% → 37%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
33.8%
Deonta Moore run for 4 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+9
34.0%
Cole Garvin run for 9 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
34.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
35.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Noble Hall) to the SDSt 12Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+4
35.5%
Milton Revell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
34.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 2 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
36.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 9Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
37.3%
Cole Garvin pass intercepted, touchback. Derek Babiash return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 1:3868% → 77%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
32.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 25 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
30.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-7
29.8%
Christian Chapman sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+15
32.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 15 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
30.0%
Christian Chapman sacked by Zach Befort and Sean Grayer for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+27
32.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 27 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
29.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 3 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+34
23.1%
John Baron II 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
26.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:3329% → 42%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
28.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+79
41.8%
Gerald Everett 79 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:5162% → 56%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
38.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
36.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (David Wells) to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 17
OWN 45
-5
39.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 22
OWN 40
+1
41.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 21
OWN 41
0
42.5%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 21
OWN 41
0
44.3%
Tanner Blain punt for 44 yds , Dami Ayoola returns for no gain to the SAlab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5145% → 45%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
45.2%
Deonta Moore run for 3 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
45.9%
Cole Garvin run for 5 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
45.9%
Dami Ayoola run for no gain to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
45.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 67 yds, downed at the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 5:0454% → 74%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
45.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+13
46.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 13 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
46.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
44.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
45.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 11 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
43.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 12 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
43.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 15 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
42.1%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+5
43.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Sean Brown) to the SAlab 21Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+9
43.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
43.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SAlab 12Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
25.6%
Kahale Warring 12 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (Christian Chapman Pass to David Wells for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:4933% → 66%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
33.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Gerald Everett for 6 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-1
36.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Milton Revell for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 36Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+5
33.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Josh Magee for 5 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
36.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ryan Dunn) to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+3
38.0%
Milton Revell run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+7
38.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 7 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
38.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Josh Magee for 4 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Malik Smith) to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
40.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 1 yd to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
40.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ryan Dunn) to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
40.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+9
38.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Josh Magee for 9 yds to the SDSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
39.8%
Deonta Moore run for no gain to the SDSt 10Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
40.1%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dominic Esposito) to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
65.5%
Josh Magee 20 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · -25 yds · 2:3044% → 42%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
56.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
56.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+9
59.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 9 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
55.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+8
57.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 8 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
53.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 3
OWN 46
-16
57.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the SDSt 3 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SDSt Tanner BlainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4371% → 90%
Q4 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
70.6%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.8%
Dami Ayoola 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:3814% → 3%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
86.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
86.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+9
86.2%
Christian Chapman run for 9 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
86.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+10
87.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 10 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
86.2%
Chapman, Christian pass incomplete to Pumphrey, Donnel, PENALTY SANDIEGOST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SOUTHALA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
88.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+13
88.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 13 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 2
OPP 24
-80
96.6%
Devon Earl 80 Yd Fumble Return (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:073% → 3%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
97.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Chase Favreau for 9 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
96.8%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Chase FavreauSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
96.8%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
97.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Darryl RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1098% → 99%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.3%
Milton Revell run for 4 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
98.5%
Milton Revell run for 1 yd to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+2
98.5%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+1
98.7%
Corliss Waitman punt for 41 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 1 yd to the SDSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:252% → 2%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
98.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 15 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Curtis Anderson IIISimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
98.2%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 12
OWN 29
-3
98.3%
Christian Chapman sacked by Finess Middleton for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 15
OWN 26
+58
98.4%
Tanner Blain punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SOUTHALA 31 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Sideline Interference (TEAM) to the SAlab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:58
Josh Magee 20 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)
+25.4
TD · Q4 8:02
Dami Ayoola 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)
+19.2
TD · Q3 3:06
Kahale Warring 12 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (Christian Chapman Pass to David Wells for Two-Point Conversion)
-17.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com