San Diego State

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0839th
  Defense−0.1098th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.8%44th
  Defense35.1%93rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1718th
  Defense+1.1879th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1575th
  Defense+0.0363rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense0.007th
  Defense−0.1599th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.1%77th
  Defense41.6%90th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense19.8%1st
  Defense23.1%96th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3493rd
  Defense3.0427th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.2%90th
  Defense16.3%20th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.9%81st
  Defense15.2%43rd

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   STBK
2. L
   WSU
3. W
   CAL
4. W
   NIU
5. W
   CSU
6. W
   NEV
7. W
   FRES
8. W
   WYO
9. L
   HAW
10. W
    BOIS
11. W
    SJSU
12. L
    UNM
13. L
    UNT

Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego State.

Players, 2025

1. Jayden DenegalQB239 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 117th of 231 QBs
   0.63WAR0.18 to 1.09
2. Lucky SuttonRB208 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 9th of 365 RBs
   0.45WAR0.34 to 0.57
3. Gabriel PlascenciaPK17 plays · +0.337 pts/play · 30th of 112 kickers
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.14
4. Christian WashingtonRB71 plays · +0.077 pts/play · 229th of 365 RBs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15
5. Kyle CrumQB28 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 198th of 231 QBs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.13
6. Jordan NapierWR58 plays · +0.038 pts/play · 335th of 451 WRs
   0.04WAR−0.06 to 0.16
7. Hunter GreenP49 plays · +0.042 pts/play · 43rd of 100 punters
   0.04WAR−0.04 to 0.10
8. Jackson FordTE15 plays · +0.098 pts/play · 146th of 213 TEs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San Diego State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  59459486th of 134Roster talent: 594, 86th of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16916975th of 134Recruiting: 169, 75th of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  11%11%122nd of 132Returning production: 11%, 122nd of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +6.7+6.743rd of 134SP+ rating: +6.7, 43rd of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.15 of the 0.23 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at NIUQ4 2:38 4th & 3 at NIU 49, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−5.3 pts
2. at NIUQ3 0:48 4th & 2 at SDSU 28, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. at NIUQ3 6:45 4th & 3 at NIU 44, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
4. vs BOISQ3 11:54 4th & 2 at BOIS 46, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
5. vs SJSUQ3 6:22 4th & 1 at SDSU 43, up 15Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
6. vs BOISQ4 10:51 4th & 4 at BOIS 30, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
7. at UNMQ3 11:08 4th & 6 at UNM 40, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
8. at UNMQ4 5:01 4th & 6 at UNM 49, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

25th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San Diego State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   STBK
2. L

   WSU
3. W

   CAL
4. W

   NIU
5. W

   CSU
6. W

   NEV
7. W

   FRES
8. W

   WYO
9. L

   HAW
10. W

    BOIS
11. W

    SJSU
12. L

    UNM
13. L

    UNT

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at San Diego State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.88
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.16
• Timeouts+0.26
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.16

Game by game

• STBKW 42-0 vs STBK89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +13
• WSUL 13-36 at WSU43% → 0%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −44, Clock +1
• CALW 34-0 vs CAL18% → 100%Before kickoff −32 · On the field +82: Scoreboard +66, Clock −1
• NIUW 6-3 at NIU53% → 96%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +48, Clock +2
• CSUW 45-24 vs CSU59% → 99%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +38, Clock +1
• NEVW 44-10 at NEV67% → 100%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +39, Clock +1
• FRESW 23-0 at FRES58% → 100%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +45, Clock +2
• WYOW 24-7 vs WYO70% → 99%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +33, Clock −1
• HAWL 6-38 at HAW65% → 0%Before kickoff +15 · On the field −65: Scoreboard −57
• BOISW 17-7 vs BOIS49% → 97%Before kickoff −1 · On the field +49: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +3
• SJSUW 25-3 vs SJSU73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +30
• UNML 17-23 at UNM63% → 19%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −28, Timeouts +22
• UNTL 47-49 vs UNT34% → 15%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −35, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from San Diego State's side.

Closest call

TOL 14-17 SDSU (2022) - San Diego State dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.