SDSU
San Diego State 44 at Nevada 10
NEV2025 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2025 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
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NEV · Drive 1PUNT RETURN TD · 6 plays · -2 yds
Q1 15:00
Gabriel Plascencia kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
42.7%
0.0
Q1 14:50
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the NEV 28
45.6%
+2.9
Q1 14:23
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nathaneal Floyd
45.9%
+0.3
Q1 14:23
PENALTY Nevada False Start (Carpenter,Jett) 5 yards from Nevada28 to Nevada23. NO PLAY.
45.9%
0.0
Q1 14:18
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Daijon Calimon
45.9%
0.0
Q1 14:01
Bailey Ettridge punt for 52 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 75 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
31.5%
-14.4
NEV · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q1 13:55
Hunter Green kickoff for 60 yds , Caleb Ramseur return for 25 yds to the NEV 30
27.1%
-4.4
Q1 13:48
Dominic Kelley run for 4 yds to the NEV 34
31.5%
+4.4
Q1 13:13
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nathaneal Floyd
31.5%
0.0
Q1 12:54
Carter Jones pass complete to Ky Woods for no gain to the NEV 34
30.4%
-1.1
Q1 12:40
Bailey Ettridge punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Napier at the SDSU 16
30.4%
0.0
SDSU · Drive 3PUNT · 9 plays · 26 yds
Q1 12:36
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Brown,Donovan thrown to SDSU20 PENALTY Nevada Offside (Labarbera,Dylan) 5 yards from SDSU16 to SDSU21. NO PLAY.
27.1%
-3.3
Q1 12:29
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST down
27.1%
0.0
Q1 11:59
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the SDSU 33
26.4%
-0.8
Q1 11:21
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the SDSU 36
26.4%
0.0
Q1 10:51
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the SDSU 41 for a 1ST down
25.8%
-0.6
Q1 10:37
Lucky Sutton run for 1 yd to the SDSU 42
25.1%
-0.7
Q1 9:56
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jacob Bostick
25.1%
0.0
Q1 9:30
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for no gain to the SDSU 42
25.2%
+0.1
Q1 9:17
Hunter Green punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Charles Brown at the NEV 14
25.4%
+0.3
NEV · Drive 4INT TD · 5 plays · 15 yds
Q1 9:09
Ky Woods run for 1 yd to the NEV 15
30.5%
+5.1
Q1 8:30
Caleb Ramseur run for 11 yds to the NEV 26 for a 1ST down
30.5%
0.0
Q1 8:02
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Dakota Thomas
30.5%
0.0
Q1 7:54
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the NEV 29
30.5%
0.0
Q1 7:11
Chris Johnson 40 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)
17.6%
-12.9
NEV · Drive 5INT · 8 plays · 25 yds
Q1 7:11
Gabriel Plascencia kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
19.0%
+1.4
Q1 6:56
Carter Jones run for 6 yds to the NEV 31
17.6%
-1.4
Q1 6:37
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the NEV 32
17.6%
0.0
Q1 5:52
Carter Jones pass complete to Herschel Turner for 5 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST down
17.6%
+0.1
Q1 5:25
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the NEV 37
17.8%
+0.2
Q1 4:40
Carter Jones pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 10 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST down
17.8%
0.0
Q1 3:56
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
18.1%
+0.3
Q1 3:26
Carter Jones pass intercepted Dwayne McDougle return for no gain to the SDSU 30
18.1%
0.0
SDSU · Drive 6TD · 7 plays · 70 yds
Q1 3:20
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the SDSU 35
18.3%
+0.2
Q1 2:23
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 19 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST down
18.3%
0.0
Q1 1:53
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the NEV 39
17.6%
-0.7
Q1 0:59
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 9 yds to the NEV 30 for a 1ST down
17.5%
-0.2
Q1 0:15
Jayden Denegal run for 21 yds to the NEV 9 for a 1ST down
17.5%
+0.1
Q1 0:00
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the NEV 2
17.7%
+0.2
Q2 15:00
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Christian Washington for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
6.2%
-11.4
NEV · Drive 7PUNT · 6 plays · 11 yds
Q2 14:57
Gabriel Plascencia kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
6.5%
+0.3
Q2 14:48
Carter Jones pass complete to Chubba Purdy for 13 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST down
10.1%
+3.6
Q2 14:10
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the NEV 38
10.4%
+0.3
Q2 12:39
Carter Jones pass complete to for 11 yds fumbled, recovered by SDSU Jace Henry
10.2%
-0.2
Q2 12:32
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 9 yds to the NEV 36
9.9%
-0.3
Q2 12:32
Bailey Ettridge punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mikey Welsh at the SDSU 27
9.9%
0.0
SDSU · Drive 8TD · 7 plays · 73 yds
Q2 12:25
Christian Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSU 28
6.4%
-3.5
Q2 11:43
Christian Washington run for 14 yds to the SDSU 42 for a 1ST down
6.4%
0.0
Q2 11:05
Christian Washington run for 16 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST down
6.2%
-0.2
Q2 10:31
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 9 yds to the NEV 33
5.7%
-0.5
Q2 10:07
Christian Washington run for no gain to the NEV 33
5.7%
0.0
Q2 9:44
Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST down
5.7%
0.0
Q2 9:05
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 31 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
4.0%
-1.7
NEV · Drive 9DOWNS · 11 plays · 68 yds
Q2 9:05
Gabriel Plascencia kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
3.9%
0.0
Q2 8:53
Carter Jones pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 44 yds to the SDSU 31 for a 1ST down
6.4%
+2.4
Q2 8:17
Caleb Ramseur run for no gain to the SDSU 31
7.0%
+0.6
Q2 7:42
Caleb Ramseur run for 6 yds to the SDSU 25
6.2%
-0.8
Q2 6:57
Carter Jones run for 1 yd to the SDSU 24
6.2%
0.0
Q2 6:12
Carter Jones pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 18 yds to the SDSU 6 for a 1ST down
6.2%
0.0
Q2 5:29
Carter Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSU 11
6.2%
0.0
Q2 5:02
Ky Woods run for 4 yds to the SDSU 7
6.1%
-0.2
Q2 4:25
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nathaneal Floyd
6.1%
+0.1
Q2 4:22
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Jett Carpenter
6.1%
0.0
Q2 4:22
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Jett Carpenter
6.1%
0.0
SDSU · Drive 10TD · 6 plays · 93 yds
Q2 4:12
Jayden Denegal run for 29 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST down
3.9%
-2.3
Q2 3:38
Lucky Sutton run for 4 yds to the SDSU 40
3.9%
0.0
Q2 3:00
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
3.9%
0.0
Q2 2:24
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the NEV 44
3.5%
-0.3
Q2 1:51
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 41 yds to the NEV 3 for a 1ST down
3.5%
0.0
Q2 1:46
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
2.8%
-0.8
NEV · Drive 11END OF HALF · 7 plays · 20 yds
Q2 1:46
Gabriel Plascencia kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
2.7%
0.0
Q2 1:40
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the NEV 29
5.7%
+2.9
Q2 1:10
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 8 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST down
5.0%
-0.6
Q2 1:10
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Jace Henry
5.0%
0.0
Q2 0:52
Carter Jones pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 3 yds to the NEV 40
5.0%
0.0
Q2 0:52
Timeout Nevada, clock 00:52
5.1%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Caleb Ramseur run for 5 yds to the NEV 45
5.1%
0.0
SDSU · Drive 12FG · 11 plays · 64 yds
Q3 15:00
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
5.0%
0.0
Q3 14:54
Lucky Sutton run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 23
2.5%
-2.5
Q3 14:17
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 30 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST down
2.5%
0.0
Q3 13:50
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the NEV 40
2.5%
-0.1
Q3 13:32
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Lucky Sutton
2.5%
0.0
Q3 13:24
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST down
2.4%
-0.1
Q3 12:39
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 20 yds to the NEV 17 for a 1ST down
2.4%
0.0
Q3 12:17
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Lucky Sutton
2.4%
0.0
Q3 12:04
Jayden Denegal run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 20
2.4%
0.0
Q3 11:33
Lucky Sutton run for 9 yds to the NEV 11
2.3%
-0.1
Q3 10:49
Gabriel Plascencia 21 yd FG GOOD
2.4%
0.0
NEV · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · -6 yds
Q3 10:49
Gabriel Plascencia kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
2.4%
0.0
Q3 10:42
Herschel Turner run for 3 yds to the NEV 28
3.5%
+1.2
Q3 9:57
Carter Jones sacked by Trey White for a loss of 9 yards to the NEV 19
3.5%
0.0
Q3 9:38
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Ky Woods
3.5%
0.0
Q3 9:38
Bailey Ettridge punt for 48 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 10 yds to the SDSU 43
3.5%
0.0
SDSU · Drive 14FG · 5 plays · 30 yds
Q3 9:27
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 30 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST down
2.3%
-1.3
Q3 9:04
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the NEV 21
2.3%
0.0
Q3 8:26
Jayden Denegal sacked by Dylan Labarbera for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 27
2.3%
0.0
Q3 7:30
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Byron Cardwell Jr. for no gain to the NEV 27
2.3%
0.0
Q3 7:05
Gabriel Plascencia 45 yd FG GOOD
2.3%
0.0
NEV · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · -7 yds
Q3 7:05
Hunter Green kickoff for 55 yds for a touchback
2.3%
0.0
Q3 6:04
Carter Jones run for a loss of 10 yards to the NEV 15 Carter Jones fumbled, recovered by SDSU Christian Jones
3.3%
+1.1
Q3 5:47
Carter Jones run for 3 yds to the NEV 18
3.3%
0.0
Q3 5:41
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Dakota Thomas
3.3%
0.0
Q3 5:36
Bailey Ettridge punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jordan Napier at the SDSU 35
3.3%
0.0
SDSU · Drive 16FG · 7 plays · 34 yds
Q3 5:28
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 9 yds to the SDSU 44
2.2%
-1.1
Q3 4:53
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST down
2.2%
0.0
Q3 4:13
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 20 yds to the NEV 33 for a 1ST down
2.1%
-0.1
Q3 3:47
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV 35
2.1%
0.0
Q3 3:13
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 2 yds to the NEV 33
2.1%
0.0
Q3 2:41
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 2 yds to the NEV 31
2.1%
0.0
Q3 2:03
Gabriel Plascencia 49 yd FG GOOD
2.1%
0.0
NEV · Drive 17FG · 11 plays · 60 yds
Q3 2:03
Hunter Green kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
2.1%
0.0
Q3 1:53
Carter Jackson run for 6 yds to the NEV 31
2.7%
+0.6
Q3 1:09
Carter Jackson run for 2 yds to the NEV 33
2.6%
-0.1
Q3 0:29
Carter Jackson run for 3 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST down
2.6%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Carter Jones pass complete to Jace Henry for 32 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST down
2.6%
0.0
Q4 14:52
Ky Woods run for 6 yds to the SDSU 26
2.7%
+0.2
Q4 14:17
(14:22) Shotgun Floyd,Nathaneal pass incomplete deep left to Carpenter,Jett thrown to SDSU00 PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (McDougle,Dwayne) 13 yards from SDSU26 to SDSU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
2.2%
-0.5
Q4 14:04
Carter Jones sacked by Ryan Henderson for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 16
2.2%
0.0
Q4 13:24
Carter Jackson run for 1 yd to the SDSU 15
2.2%
0.0
Q4 12:54
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Daijon Calimon
2.2%
0.0
Q4 12:50
Joe McFadden 34 yd FG GOOD
2.2%
0.0
SDSU · Drive 18PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q4 12:50
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
2.1%
-0.1
Q4 12:42
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 8 yds to the SDSU 33
1.7%
-0.3
Q4 12:09
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 31
1.7%
0.0
Q4 11:43
Bert Emanuel Jr. sacked by Dylan Labarbera for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSU 23
1.7%
0.0
Q4 10:53
Hunter Green punt for 47 yds , Gerick Robinson returns for 3 yds to the NEV 33
1.7%
0.0
NEV · Drive 19PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q4 10:47
Dominic Kelley run for no gain to the NEV 33
1.9%
+0.2
Q4 9:58
Carter Jones pass complete to Daijon Calimon for 8 yds to the NEV 41
1.9%
0.0
Q4 9:35
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Daijon Calimon
1.9%
0.0
Q4 9:28
Bailey Ettridge punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Napier at the SDSU 15
1.9%
0.0
SDSU · Drive 20PUNT · 7 plays · 13 yds
Q4 9:21
Christian Washington run for no gain to the SDSU 15
1.7%
-0.2
Q4 8:38
Christian Washington run for 13 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST down
1.7%
0.0
Q4 7:52
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the SDSU 33
1.7%
0.0
Q4 7:06
(07:09) Shotgun Washington,Christian rush middle for 0 yards to the SDSU33 () PENALTY SDSU Delay Of Game (Emanuel, Jr.,Bert) 5 yards from SDSU33 to SDSU28. NO PLAY.
1.7%
0.0
Q4 6:39
Christian Washington run for no gain to the SDSU 28
1.7%
0.0
Q4 5:53
Nevada Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined
1.7%
0.0
Q4 5:42
Hunter Green punt for 61 yds , Gerick Robinson returns for 8 yds to the NEV 19
1.7%
0.0
NEV · Drive 21TD · 12 plays · 81 yds
Q4 5:24
Carter Jones pass complete to DJ Asiasi for 5 yds to the NEV 24
1.9%
+0.2
Q4 4:37
Carter Jones pass complete to for 3 yds to the NEV 21
1.9%
0.0
Q4 4:12
Carter Jackson run for 10 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST down
1.8%
-0.1
Q4 4:12
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Jones,Carter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Nevada32 (Herman,DJ) PENALTY SDSU Targeting (Anderson,Brady) 15 yards from Nevada31 to Nevada46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
1.8%
0.0
Q4 4:03
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Marshaun Brown
1.8%
0.0
Q4 3:59
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Marshaun Brown
1.8%
0.0
Q4 3:40
Carter Jones pass complete to Daijon Calimon for 20 yds to the SDSU 34 for a 1ST down
1.8%
0.0
Q4 3:24
Dominic Kelley run for 2 yds to the SDSU 32
1.9%
+0.1
Q4 2:59
Carter Jones run for 16 yds to the SDSU 16 for a 1ST down
1.9%
+0.1
Q4 2:37
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Zedekiah Anahu-Ambrosio
1.9%
0.0
Q4 2:32
Carter Jones pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 16 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
2.9%
+0.9
Q4 2:26
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 56 yds , Christian Washington return for 45 yds to the SDSU 20 San Diego State Penalty, (10 Yards) to the SDSU 22
1.8%
-1.0
SDSU · Drive 22DOWNS · 4 plays · 10 yds
Q4 2:00
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSU 23
2.1%
+0.3
Q4 1:54
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 5 yds to the SDSU 28
2.0%
-0.1
Q4 1:36
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSU 31
2.0%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSU 32
2.0%
0.0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q1 14:01
Bailey Ettridge punt for 52 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 75 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q1 7:11
Chris Johnson 40 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)
-12.9
TD · Q2 15:00
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Christian Washington for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
-11.4