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SDSU

San Diego State 44 at Nevada 10

NEV
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSU 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:11: Chris Johnson 40 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick) — SDSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 15:00: Jayden Denegal pass complete to Christian Washington for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:05: Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 31 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:46: Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 10:49: Gabriel Plascencia 21 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +0.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 14:01NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:40NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:17SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:32NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:12NEV 4th & 3 at SDSU 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:22NEV 4th & 7 at SDSU 7, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:22NEV 4th & 7 at SDSU 7, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:49SDSU 4th & 4 at NEV 11, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:38NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 19, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:05SDSU 4th & 10 at NEV 27, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:36NEV 4th & 17 at NEV 18, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:03SDSU 4th & 8 at NEV 31, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:50NEV 4th & 12 at SDSU 15, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:53SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 23, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:28NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 41, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:42SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 28, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 31, up 34
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:11SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 15:00SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:05SDSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:46SDSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:32NEV Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:4933% → 33%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
33.1%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nathaneal FloydSimilar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
33.0%
PENALTY Nevada False Start (Carpenter,Jett) 5 yards from Nevada28 to Nevada23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
33.0%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Daijon CalimonSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+75
32.8%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 52 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 75 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0833% → 33%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
32.9%
Dominic Kelley run for 4 yds to the NEV 34Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
33.1%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nathaneal FloydSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
33.0%
Carter Jones pass complete to Ky Woods for no gain to the NEV 34Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
32.9%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Napier at the SDSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:1967% → 67%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
33.0%
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Brown,Donovan thrown to SDSU20 PENALTY Nevada Offside (Labarbera,Dylan) 5 yards from SDSU16 to SDSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 5
OWN 21
+7
33.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
33.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
32.9%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the SDSU 36Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
32.9%
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the SDSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
32.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 1 yd to the SDSU 42Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
32.8%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jacob BostickSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
33.0%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for no gain to the SDSU 42Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
33.3%
Hunter Green punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Charles Brown at the NEV 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4INT TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:5833% → 31%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
33.2%
Ky Woods run for 1 yd to the NEV 15Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+11
33.1%
Caleb Ramseur run for 11 yds to the NEV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
33.3%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Dakota ThomasSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
33.2%
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-40
31.0%
Chris Johnson 40 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:3031% → 30%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.9%
Carter Jones run for 6 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
31.1%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the NEV 32Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
30.8%
Carter Jones pass complete to Herschel Turner for 5 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
30.7%
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the NEV 37Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
30.4%
Carter Jones pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 10 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
31.1%
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 7
50
0
30.0%
Carter Jones pass intercepted Dwayne McDougle return for no gain to the SDSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:2071% → 81%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
28.8%
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the SDSU 35Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+19
28.3%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 19 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
27.8%
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the NEV 39Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+9
27.4%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 9 yds to the NEV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
27.2%
Jayden Denegal run for 21 yds to the NEV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
27.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the NEV 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.2%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Christian Washington for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:1622% → 20%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
21.5%
Carter Jones pass complete to Chubba Purdy for 13 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
21.7%
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the NEV 38Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
20.5%
Carter Jones pass complete to for 11 yds fumbled, recovered by SDSU Jace HenrySimilar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 21
OWN 27
+9
19.9%
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 9 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
20.0%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mikey Welsh at the SDSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 3:2082% → 89%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
17.8%
Christian Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSU 28Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+14
17.3%
Christian Washington run for 14 yds to the SDSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
16.6%
Christian Washington run for 16 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
15.9%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 9 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
15.3%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the NEV 33Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
15.4%
Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
11.5%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 31 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:3111% → 11%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
11.4%
Carter Jones pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 44 yds to the SDSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
12.8%
Caleb Ramseur run for no gain to the SDSU 31Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
12.2%
Caleb Ramseur run for 6 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+1
11.5%
Carter Jones run for 1 yd to the SDSU 24Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+18
10.7%
Carter Jones pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 18 yds to the SDSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
10.5%
Carter Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSU 11Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
11.5%
Ky Woods run for 4 yds to the SDSU 7Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
11.1%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nathaneal FloydSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
10.7%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Jett CarpenterSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
10.7%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Jett CarpenterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 2:2691% → 95%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+29
9.5%
Jayden Denegal run for 29 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
9.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 4 yds to the SDSU 40Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
8.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
50
+6
8.1%
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+41
7.1%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 41 yds to the NEV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.6%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:405% → 3%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
4.2%
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 8 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.5%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Jace HenrySimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
4.2%
Carter Jones pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 3 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+5
2.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 5 yds to the NEV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:0596% → 97%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
3.7%
Lucky Sutton run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 23Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+30
3.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 30 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
3.2%
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
3.1%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Lucky SuttonSimilar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+3
3.1%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
2.8%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 20 yds to the NEV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
2.6%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Lucky SuttonSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-3
2.5%
Jayden Denegal run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 20Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 13
OPP 20
+9
2.5%
Lucky Sutton run for 9 yds to the NEV 11Similar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+21
3.4%
Gabriel Plascencia 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:042% → 2%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.1%
Herschel Turner run for 3 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-9
1.9%
Carter Jones sacked by Trey White for a loss of 9 yards to the NEV 19Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
1.8%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Ky WoodsSimilar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+10
1.8%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 48 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 10 yds to the SDSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:2298% → 98%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+30
2.0%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 30 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
1.8%
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the NEV 21Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-6
1.7%
Jayden Denegal sacked by Dylan Labarbera for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 27Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
1.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Byron Cardwell Jr. for no gain to the NEV 27Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
2.4%
Gabriel Plascencia 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:281% → 1%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
1.1%
Carter Jones run for a loss of 10 yards to the NEV 15 Carter Jones fumbled, recovered by SDSU Christian JonesSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
1.0%
Carter Jones run for 3 yds to the NEV 18Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
1.0%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Dakota ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
0.8%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jordan Napier at the SDSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:2599% → 99%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
1.3%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 9 yds to the SDSU 44Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
1.1%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
1.1%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 20 yds to the NEV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
1.0%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV 35Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+2
0.9%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 2 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+2
0.9%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 2 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+49
1.1%
Gabriel Plascencia 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:031% → 0%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.6%
Carter Jackson run for 6 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
0.5%
Carter Jackson run for 2 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
0.5%
Carter Jackson run for 3 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
0.5%
Carter Jones pass complete to Jace Henry for 32 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
0.5%
Ky Woods run for 6 yds to the SDSU 26Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+13
0.5%
(14:22) Shotgun Floyd,Nathaneal pass incomplete deep left to Carpenter,Jett thrown to SDSU00 PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (McDougle,Dwayne) 13 yards from SDSU26 to SDSU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
0.4%
Carter Jones sacked by Ryan Henderson for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 16Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+1
0.4%
Carter Jackson run for 1 yd to the SDSU 15Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
0.4%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Daijon CalimonSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+34
0.3%
Joe McFadden 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.5%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 8 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
0.5%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 31Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-8
0.5%
Bert Emanuel Jr. sacked by Dylan Labarbera for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSU 23Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+3
0.4%
Hunter Green punt for 47 yds , Gerick Robinson returns for 3 yds to the NEV 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Dominic Kelley run for no gain to the NEV 33Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
0.2%
Carter Jones pass complete to Daijon Calimon for 8 yds to the NEV 41Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
0.2%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Daijon CalimonSimilar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
0.2%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Napier at the SDSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
0.3%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the SDSU 15Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+13
0.3%
Christian Washington run for 13 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
0.3%
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-5
0.3%
(07:09) Shotgun Washington,Christian rush middle for 0 yards to the SDSU33 () PENALTY SDSU Delay Of Game (Emanuel, Jr.,Bert) 5 yards from SDSU33 to SDSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
0.3%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the SDSU 28Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Nevada Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+8
0.3%
Hunter Green punt for 61 yds , Gerick Robinson returns for 8 yds to the NEV 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 2:520% → 0%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
0.1%
Carter Jones pass complete to DJ Asiasi for 5 yds to the NEV 24Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+3
0.2%
Carter Jones pass complete to for 3 yds to the NEV 21Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+10
0.1%
Carter Jackson run for 10 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
0.1%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Jones,Carter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Nevada32 (Herman,DJ) PENALTY SDSU Targeting (Anderson,Brady) 15 yards from Nevada31 to Nevada46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Marshaun BrownSimilar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Marshaun BrownSimilar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+20
0.1%
Carter Jones pass complete to Daijon Calimon for 20 yds to the SDSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
0.1%
Dominic Kelley run for 2 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+16
0.1%
Carter Jones run for 16 yds to the SDSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
0.1%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Zedekiah Anahu-AmbrosioSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
0.1%
Carter Jones pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 16 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 10 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+1
0.1%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSU 23Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+5
0.1%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 5 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+3
0.1%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+1
0.1%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 15:00
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Christian Washington for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 9:05
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 31 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q2 1:46
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
-2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com