YardLine - College football win probability

SDSU

San Diego State 6 at Northern Illinois 3

NIU

2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Huskie Stadium

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Win probability · NIU

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NIU · Drive 1FG · 20 plays · 62 yds

Q1 15:00

Hunter Green kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

43.6%

0.0

Q1 14:54

Josh Holst run for 4 yds to the NIU 29

46.6%

+3.0

Q1 14:30

Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 29

46.8%

+0.3

Q1 13:57

Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 12 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST down

46.8%

0.0

Q1 13:29

(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Holst,Josh pass incomplete short left to Rogers,DeAree thrown to NIU47 PENALTY NIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Appleget,Jake) 5 yards from NIU41 to NIU36. NO PLAY.

47.7%

+0.9

Q1 13:23

Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the NIU 39

47.1%

-0.7

Q1 12:50

Josh Holst run for 9 yds to the NIU 48

47.5%

+0.4

Q1 12:10

Chavon Wright run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

47.7%

+0.2

Q1 11:36

Chavon Wright run for 1 yd to the SDSU 49 for a 1ST down

47.4%

-0.3

Q1 11:01

Timeout San Diego State, clock 11:01

48.0%

+0.6

Q1 10:50

Josh Holst run for 3 yds to the SDSU 46

48.0%

0.0

Q1 10:19

Josh Holst pass incomplete to Gary Givens

48.0%

0.0

Q1 10:09

Josh Holst run for 14 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST down

47.7%

-0.3

Q1 9:33

Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the SDSU 29

48.4%

+0.6

Q1 8:56

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the SDSU 18 for a 1ST down

48.3%

-0.1

Q1 8:35

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSU 15

48.3%

0.0

Q1 7:55

Josh Holst pass incomplete

48.4%

+0.1

Q1 7:45

Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the SDSU 13

48.2%

-0.3

Q1 7:10

Andrew Glass 31 yd FG GOOD

53.1%

+4.9

Q1 7:10

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 07:10

39.3%

-13.8

SDSU · Drive 2FG · 17 plays · 63 yds

Q1 7:10

Andrew Glass kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

50.0%

+10.7

Q1 7:05

Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jordan Napier

47.1%

-2.9

Q1 6:57

Jayden Denegal run for 3 yds to the SDSU 28

47.1%

0.0

Q1 6:10

Jayden Denegal run for 12 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST down

48.4%

+1.2

Q1 5:45

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

47.5%

-0.9

Q1 5:19

(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden pass incomplete deep left to Bostick,Jacob thrown to NIU04 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Finley,Jacob) 15 yards from SDSU50 to NIU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

46.1%

-1.4

Q1 5:13

Lucky Sutton run for 4 yds to the NIU 31

45.3%

-0.8

Q1 4:35

Jordan Napier run for 3 yds to the NIU 28

45.3%

0.0

Q1 4:03

Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the NIU 26

45.3%

0.0

Q1 3:25

Lucky Sutton run for 1 yd to the NIU 25 for a 1ST down

46.1%

+0.8

Q1 2:48

Jordan Napier run for 16 yds to the NIU 9 for a 1ST down

45.3%

-0.8

Q1 2:08

(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Washington,Christian rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NIU10 (Maciorowski,Filip; Finley,Jacob) PENALTY SDSU Holding (Adams,Seth) 10 yards from NIU09 to NIU19. NO PLAY.

45.3%

0.0

Q1 1:44

Christian Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 21

46.5%

+1.3

Q1 0:55

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jackson Ford for 6 yds to the NIU 15

46.5%

0.0

Q1 0:00

Jayden Denegal run for 3 yds to the NIU 12

46.5%

0.0

Q2 14:55

Gabriel Plascencia 30 yd FG GOOD

39.7%

-6.9

Q2 14:55

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 14:55

52.9%

+13.2

NIU · Drive 3PUNT · 6 plays · 6 yds

Q2 14:55

Gabriel Plascencia kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

41.7%

-11.2

Q2 14:55

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 14:55

46.4%

+4.7

Q2 14:33

Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the NIU 23 Josh Holst fumbled, recovered by NIU Jaylen Poe , return for 3 yds to the NIU 23

46.5%

+0.1

Q2 14:17

Josh Holst pass incomplete to Jaylen Poe

46.5%

0.0

Q2 14:10

Chavon Wright run for 8 yds to the NIU 31

46.5%

0.0

Q2 13:28

Danny Vuckovic punt for 46 yds

46.1%

-0.3

SDSU · Drive 4DOWNS · 12 plays · 31 yds

Q2 13:28

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 13:28

39.3%

-6.9

Q2 13:20

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 9 yds to the SDSU 32

39.3%

0.0

Q2 12:55

Christian Washington run for no gain to the SDSU 32

39.3%

0.0

Q2 12:27

Christian Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST down

39.3%

0.0

Q2 11:55

Jayden Denegal run for 4 yds to the SDSU 39

40.6%

+1.3

Q2 11:55

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 11:55

37.6%

-3.0

Q2 11:38

Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSU 41

37.6%

0.0

Q2 10:58

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 4 yds to the SDSU 45 for a 1ST down

39.9%

+2.3

Q2 10:37

Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jacob Bostick

39.3%

-0.5

Q2 10:30

Christian Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSU 48

39.3%

0.0

Q2 9:54

Christian Washington run for 6 yds to the NIU 46

39.1%

-0.3

Q2 9:19

Christian Washington run for no gain to the NIU 46

39.2%

+0.1

NIU · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · -6 yds

Q2 9:08

Chavon Wright run for a loss of 5 yards to the NIU 41

45.6%

+6.4

Q2 8:29

Josh Holst run for 4 yds to the NIU 45

45.6%

0.0

Q2 7:49

Josh Holst sacked by Ryan Henderson for a loss of 10 yards to the NIU 35

46.4%

+0.8

Q2 7:12

PENALTY SDSU Offside (Johnson,Chris) 5 yards from NIU35 to NIU40. NO PLAY.

45.4%

-1.0

Q2 6:47

Danny Vuckovic punt for 47 yds , Jordan Napier returns for no gain to the SDSU 12

46.1%

+0.7

SDSU · Drive 6PUNT · 11 plays · 30 yds

Q2 6:47

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 06:47

39.1%

-7.0

Q2 6:44

Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Mikey Welsh

39.1%

0.0

Q2 6:33

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 13 yds to the SDSU 25 for a 1ST down

39.1%

0.0

Q2 6:17

Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Mikey Welsh

39.1%

0.0

Q2 6:11

Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the SDSU 28

39.1%

0.0

Q2 5:22

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Mikey Welsh for 8 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST down

39.2%

+0.1

Q2 4:48

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 4 yds to the SDSU 40

39.4%

+0.2

Q2 4:17

PENALTY SDSU False Start (Ford,Jackson) 5 yards from SDSU40 to SDSU35. NO PLAY.

38.5%

-0.9

Q2 3:47

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Mikey Welsh for 7 yds to the SDSU 42

39.4%

+0.9

Q2 3:16

Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Donovan Brown

38.2%

-1.2

Q2 3:06

Hunter Green punt for 46 yds

38.5%

+0.3

NIU · Drive 7PUNT · 11 plays · 23 yds

Q2 3:04

PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from NIU12 to NIU07. NO PLAY.

47.0%

+8.4

Q2 2:55

Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 7

47.0%

0.0

Q2 2:23

Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 15 yds to the NIU 22 for a 1ST down

46.9%

0.0

Q2 2:00

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 02:00

45.1%

-1.8

Q2 1:52

Chavon Wright run for 11 yds to the NIU 33 for a 1ST down

45.1%

0.0

Q2 1:36

Josh Holst sacked by Owen Chambliss for a loss of 10 yards to the NIU 23

45.1%

0.0

Q2 1:36

Timeout San Diego State, clock 01:36

43.7%

-1.4

Q2 1:32

Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 11 yds to the NIU 34

43.7%

0.0

Q2 1:28

Chavon Wright run for 1 yd to the NIU 35

43.7%

0.0

Q2 1:28

Timeout San Diego State, clock 01:28

43.4%

-0.3

Q2 1:23

Danny Vuckovic punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 45

43.4%

0.0

SDSU · Drive 8PUNT · 9 plays · 5 yds

Q2 1:17

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 13 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST down

38.6%

-4.8

Q2 1:07

(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden pass incomplete short left to Napier,Jordan thrown to NIU39 PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (McCuin,Deshawn) 15 yards from NIU42 to SDSU43. NO PLAY.

38.0%

-0.6

Q2 1:01

Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the SDSU 48

39.1%

+1.2

Q2 0:57

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 00:57

38.3%

-0.8

Q2 0:50

Jayden Denegal run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 47

38.3%

0.0

Q2 0:50

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 00:50

38.3%

0.0

Q2 0:45

Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

38.3%

0.0

Q2 0:45

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 00:45

38.4%

+0.1

Q2 0:32

Hunter Green punt for 45 yds

38.4%

0.0

NIU · Drive 9END OF HALF · 1 play · 9 yds

Q2 0:00

J. Holst takes a knee

19.7%

-18.7

SDSU · Drive 10INT · 3 plays · 19 yds

Q3 15:00

Andrew Glass kickoff for 60 yds

48.4%

+28.7

Q3 14:51

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 19 yds to the SDSU 44 for a 1ST down

41.5%

-6.9

Q3 14:23

Jayden Denegal pass intercepted Muhammed Jammeh return for 11 yds to the NIU 27

39.6%

-1.9

NIU · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds

Q3 14:14

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the NIU 28

48.4%

+8.8

Q3 13:45

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the NIU 32

48.4%

0.0

Q3 13:11

Josh Holst pass incomplete to George Dimopoulos

48.4%

+0.1

Q3 13:01

Danny Vuckovic punt for 42 yds , Jordan Napier returns for no gain to the SDSU 25

48.1%

-0.3

Q3 13:01

Danny Vuckovic punt for 42 yds , Jordan Napier returns for no gain to the SDSU 25

48.1%

0.0

SDSU · Drive 12PUNT · 8 plays · 6 yds

Q3 13:01

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 13:01

40.5%

-7.6

Q3 12:56

Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the SDSU 31

40.5%

0.0

Q3 12:30

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 9 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST down

40.5%

0.0

Q3 12:00

Jayden Denegal sacked by Filip Maciorowski for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSU 30

39.6%

-0.9

Q3 11:21

Timeout San Diego State, clock 11:21

40.6%

+1.0

Q3 11:11

Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSU 31

40.6%

0.0

Q3 10:44

Bert Emanuel Jr. pass incomplete to Donovan Brown

40.6%

0.0

Q3 10:30

Hunter Green punt for 60 yds , DeAree Rogers returns for 18 yds to the NIU 27

40.6%

0.0

NIU · Drive 13INT · 4 plays · 11 yds

Q3 10:19

Brady Davidson pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 8 yds to the NIU 35

48.4%

+7.8

Q3 9:50

Chavon Wright run for 1 yd to the NIU 36

48.7%

+0.3

Q3 9:12

Chavon Wright run for 2 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST down

48.9%

+0.3

Q3 8:34

Brady Davidson pass intercepted Chris Johnson return for 4 yds to the SDSU 49

49.3%

+0.4

SDSU · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds

Q3 8:34

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 08:34

38.6%

-10.6

Q3 8:29

Jordan Napier run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

38.9%

+0.3

Q3 7:58

Christian Washington run for 8 yds to the NIU 42

38.6%

-0.3

Q3 7:21

Christian Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 44

38.5%

-0.1

Q3 6:45

Hunter Green punt for 34 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 10

39.0%

+0.5

NIU · Drive 15PUNT · 7 plays · 17 yds

Q3 6:35

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the NIU 15

48.7%

+9.7

Q3 6:05

Josh Holst run for 3 yds to the NIU 18

48.7%

0.0

Q3 5:28

Josh Holst pass complete to Jaylen Poe for 2 yds to the NIU 20 for a 1ST down

48.7%

0.0

Q3 4:55

Jaylen Poe run for 2 yds to the NIU 22

48.9%

+0.2

Q3 4:16

Telly Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 20

49.0%

+0.2

Q3 3:31

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the NIU 27

49.0%

0.0

Q3 2:46

Danny Vuckovic punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 20 , Jordan Napier returns for 1 yd to the SDSU 20

48.7%

-0.3

SDSU · Drive 16PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds

Q3 2:40

Jordan Napier run for 2 yds to the SDSU 22

41.1%

-7.6

Q3 2:01

Bert Emanuel Jr. pass complete to Jordan Napier for 5 yds to the SDSU 27

41.1%

0.0

Q3 1:31

Lucky Sutton run for 1 yd to the SDSU 28

41.1%

0.0

Q3 0:48

Hunter Green punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 9

41.1%

0.0

NIU · Drive 17PUNT · 6 plays · 19 yds

Q3 0:00

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the NIU 18

49.0%

+8.0

Q4 14:54

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 21 for a 1ST down

49.0%

0.0

Q4 14:17

Josh Holst pass incomplete

49.0%

0.0

Q4 14:08

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 24

49.0%

0.0

Q4 13:19

Josh Holst pass complete to George Dimopoulos for 4 yds to the NIU 28

49.0%

0.0

Q4 12:39

Danny Vuckovic punt for 52 yds

48.7%

-0.3

SDSU · Drive 18INT · 11 plays · 46 yds

Q4 12:39

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 12:39

41.1%

-7.6

Q4 12:33

Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the SDSU 26

41.1%

0.0

Q4 11:59

Lucky Sutton run for 11 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST down

41.1%

0.0

Q4 11:33

Lucky Sutton run for 10 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST down

41.1%

0.0

Q4 11:06

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 1 yd to the SDSU 48

39.1%

-2.0

Q4 10:32

Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the NIU 46

39.1%

0.0

Q4 9:51

Jayden Denegal run for 3 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST down

38.9%

-0.2

Q4 9:16

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 7 yds to the NIU 36

38.0%

-0.9

Q4 8:51

Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the NIU 34

37.6%

-0.4

Q4 8:32

Christian Washington run for no gain to the NIU 34

37.6%

0.0

Q4 7:46

Jayden Denegal pass intercepted Jasper Beeler return for no gain to the NIU 32

38.4%

+0.7

NIU · Drive 19DOWNS · 10 plays · 24 yds

Q4 7:46

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 07:46

49.0%

+10.6

Q4 7:39

Lazaro Rogers run for 6 yds to the NIU 38 Northern Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (Landon Hron) to the NIU 28

49.0%

0.0

Q4 7:26

Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 5 yds to the NIU 33

49.0%

0.0

Q4 6:59

Josh Holst pass incomplete to Telly Johnson Jr.

49.0%

0.0

Q4 6:53

Josh Holst pass incomplete to DeAree Rogers

49.0%

0.0

Q4 6:48

(06:50) No Huddle Vuckovic,Danny rush middle for 16 yards loss to the NIU17 fumbled by Vuckovic,Danny at NIU17 recovered by NIU Vuckovic,Danny at NIU17, End Of Play PENALTY SDSU Personal Foul 15 yards from NIU33 to NIU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

48.6%

-0.3

Q4 6:26

Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 48

49.9%

+1.2

Q4 5:47

Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 48

49.9%

0.0

Q4 5:07

Josh Holst run for 8 yds to the SDSU 44

49.6%

-0.3

Q4 4:28

Josh Holst run for no gain to the SDSU 44

50.3%

+0.6

SDSU · Drive 20PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds

Q4 4:28

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 04:28

37.1%

-13.1

Q4 4:20

Jayden Denegal run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

37.4%

+0.2

Q4 3:54

Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the NIU 48

36.9%

-0.5

Q4 3:19

Jayden Denegal run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 49

36.9%

0.0

Q4 2:38

Hunter Green punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 15

37.2%

+0.3

NIU · Drive 21PUNT · 7 plays · 4 yds

Q4 2:38

PENALTY NIU False Start (Tweedy,Aidan) 5 yards from NIU15 to NIU10. NO PLAY.

49.5%

+12.3

Q4 2:32

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the NIU 12

49.5%

0.0

Q4 2:00

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 02:00

50.4%

+0.9

Q4 1:57

Josh Holst pass incomplete to Gary Givens

51.4%

+1.0

Q4 1:52

Telly Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the NIU 19

51.4%

0.0

Q4 1:52

Timeout San Diego State, clock 01:52

51.1%

-0.3

Q4 1:44

Danny Vuckovic punt for 37 yds

51.1%

0.0

SDSU · Drive 22FG · 11 plays · 49 yds

Q4 1:37

Lucky Sutton run for 13 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST down

36.3%

-14.8

Q4 1:22

Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the NIU 40

35.7%

-0.6

Q4 1:10

Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the NIU 33 for a 1ST down Northern Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Roy Williams) to the NIU 18 for a 1ST down

35.3%

-0.4

Q4 0:54

Lucky Sutton run for 4 yds to the NIU 14

35.3%

0.0

Q4 0:54

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 00:54

36.5%

+1.2

Q4 0:51

Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the NIU 11

36.5%

0.0

Q4 0:51

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 00:51

36.5%

0.0

Q4 0:49

(00:51) No Huddle Denegal,Jayden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU09 (Gulley, Jr,Alvin; Dixon,Dasean) PENALTY NIU Offside 5 yards from NIU11 to NIU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

36.5%

0.0

Q4 0:21

J. Denegal takes a knee

36.5%

0.0

Q4 0:02

Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 00:02

36.5%

0.0

Q4 0:00

Gabriel Plascencia 25 yd FG GOOD

11.0%

-25.5

Biggest swings

KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00

Andrew Glass kickoff for 60 yds

+28.7

FG · Q4 0:00

Gabriel Plascencia 25 yd FG GOOD

-25.5

KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00

J. Holst takes a knee

-18.7