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STBK

Stony Brook 0 at San Diego State 42

SDSU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadSTBK aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreSTBK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:23 · Hunter Green punt for 56 yds, fair catch by MarQeese Dietz at the STBK 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 191Pregame prior+6.0Home team on offense+36.0Score differential+26.0Garbage-time factor+14.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.8Blowout margin+11.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:39: Lucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick) — STBK win probability +0.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:37: Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 25 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 8:31: Gabriel Plascencia 42 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 1:09: Gabriel Plascencia 35 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:40: Lucky Sutton 2 Yd Run (DJ Herman Pass to Brady Anderson for Two-Point Conversion) — SDSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 13 of 13STBK made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 7:39SDSU 4th & 2 at STBK 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.6%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:33SDSU 4th & 2 at STBK 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.6%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:30STBK 4th & 6 at STBK 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:48STBK 4th & 6 at STBK 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00STBK 4th & 5 at STBK 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:37SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:32SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:37STBK 4th & 1 at STBK 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.2%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:06STBK 4th & 3 at STBK 39, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:31SDSU 4th & 9 at STBK 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:51STBK 4th & 5 at STBK 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:09SDSU 4th & 9 at STBK 17, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:12STBK 4th & 4 at STBK 34, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:02SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 46, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:51STBK 4th & 2 at STBK 28, down 20
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:26SDSU 4th & 5 at STBK 33, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:26SDSU 4th & 4 at STBK 32, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 7:00STBK 4th & 10 at STBK 33, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  19. Q3 5:22SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 33, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  20. Q3 4:05STBK 4th & 14 at STBK 16, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  21. Q3 3:13STBK 4th & 14 at STBK 16, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  22. Q3 1:40SDSU 4th & 2 at STBK 2, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−2.6
    average punt
  23. Q3 0:00STBK 4th & 6 at SDSU 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 11:06SDSU 4th & 1 at STBK 1, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.7
    average punt
  25. Q4 9:24STBK 4th & 3 at STBK 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  26. Q4 7:23SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 37, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  27. Q4 5:52STBK 4th & 20 at STBK 7, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q3 1:40SDSU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:06SDSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:54SDSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
23 plays · 75 yds · 9:0889% → 88%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.9%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the SDSU 27Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
88.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 8 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
88.2%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 7 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
88.3%
Jayden Denegal run for 3 yds to the SDSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
88.3%
Lucky Sutton run for 20 yds to the STBK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
88.4%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the STBK 32Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+11
88.2%
Lucky Sutton run for 11 yds to the STBK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
88.3%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Donovan BrownSimilar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+9
88.2%
Jayden Denegal run for 9 yds to the STBK 27Similar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+2
88.1%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the STBK 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
88.4%
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the STBK 18Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+16
88.4%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jackson Ford for 16 yds to the STBK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.4%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 1 yd to the STBK 1Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.4%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for no gain to the STBK 1Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.2%
Lucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
88.3%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Donovan BrownSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+5
88.2%
Jayden Denegal run for 5 yds to the STBK 27Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+2
88.1%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the STBK 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
88.2%
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the STBK 18Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+16
88.2%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jackson Ford for 16 yds to the STBK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.2%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 1 yd to the STBK 1Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.2%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for no gain to the STBK 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 2PUNT
17 plays · 18 yds · 3:4211% → 11%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.2%
PENALTY SBU False Start 5 yards from SBU25 to SBU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
89.2%
Chris Zellous pass incomplete to Louis GaddySimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+13
89.3%
Roland Dempster run for 13 yds to the STBK 33Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
89.1%
Roland Dempster run for 6 yds to the STBK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
89.1%
Chris Zellous pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
89.1%
Roland Dempster run for 4 yds to the STBK 43Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
89.1%
Chris Zellous pass incomplete to Cole BunicciSimilar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+7
89.2%
Clayton Taylor punt for 42 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 7 yds to the SDSU 22Similar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.2%
PENALTY SBU False Start 5 yards from SBU25 to SBU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
89.2%
Chris Zellous pass incomplete to Louis GaddySimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+13
89.3%
Roland Dempster run for 13 yds to the STBK 33Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
89.0%
Roland Dempster run for 6 yds to the STBK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.9%
Chris Zellous pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
89.0%
Roland Dempster run for 4 yds to the STBK 43Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
89.0%
Chris Zellous pass incomplete to Cole BunicciSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+7
89.1%
Clayton Taylor punt for 42 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 7 yds to the SDSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
27 plays · 78 yds · 1:1190% → 91%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
89.8%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+8
89.8%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 8 yds to the SDSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
89.8%
Jayden Denegal run for 4 yds to the SDSU 37Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-5
90.4%
PENALTY SDSU False Start 5 yards from SDSU37 to SDSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
90.2%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jacob BostickSimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+23
90.2%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 23 yds to the STBK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 2 yds to the STBK 43Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
90.6%
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the STBK 37Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
90.5%
Lucky Sutton run for 4 yds to the STBK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
90.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 4 yds to the STBK 44Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
90.6%
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the STBK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
90.6%
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the STBK 32Similar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.7%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Lucky SuttonSimilar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
90.7%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Lucky SuttonSimilar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
90.7%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 10 yds to the STBK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
90.7%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 3 yds to the STBK 20Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+10
90.5%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 10 yds to the STBK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
90.7%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 2 yds to the STBK 20Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
90.8%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jacob BostickSimilar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
90.8%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jacob BostickSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-5
90.5%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden pass complete short middle to Napier,Jordan caught at SBU11, for 9 yards to the SBU11 (Allen,Jayson) PENALTY SDSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from SBU20 to SBU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-5
90.5%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden pass complete short middle to Napier,Jordan caught at SBU11, for 9 yards to the SBU11 (Allen,Jayson) PENALTY SDSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from SBU20 to SBU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+25
90.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 25 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5311% → 10%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Chris Zellous pass incomplete to Dez WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.6%
Chris Zellous pass complete to Jayce Freeman for 5 yds to the STBK 30Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
89.5%
Chris Zellous pass incomplete to Jayce FreemanSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
89.7%
Clayton Taylor punt for 38 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 5 yds to the SDSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:2891% → 90%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.7%
Jayden Denegal run for no gain to the SDSU 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
90.6%
Christian Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSU 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
90.5%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Donovan BrownSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
90.3%
Hunter Green punt for 42 yds, fair catch by MarQeese Dietz at the STBK 20Similar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
90.4%
Hunter Green punt for 42 yds, fair catch by MarQeese Dietz at the STBK 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 19 yds · 3:3110% → 10%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
89.6%
Roland Dempster run for 4 yds to the STBK 24Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
89.6%
Roland Dempster run for 5 yds to the STBK 29Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
89.5%
Roland Dempster run for no gain to the STBK 29Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
89.7%
Roland Dempster run for 3 yds to the STBK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
89.5%
Chris Zellous pass complete to Dez Williams for 4 yds to the STBK 36Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
89.5%
Chris Zellous pass complete to RJ Lamarre for 4 yds to the STBK 40Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-1
89.2%
Shakhi Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 39Similar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
89.8%
Roland Dempster run for 4 yds to the STBK 24Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
89.8%
Roland Dempster run for 5 yds to the STBK 29Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
89.7%
Roland Dempster run for 3 yds to the STBK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
89.7%
Chris Zellous pass complete to Dez Williams for 4 yds to the STBK 36Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
89.7%
Chris Zellous pass complete to RJ Lamarre for 4 yds to the STBK 40Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-1
89.3%
Shakhi Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 39Similar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+9
89.9%
Clayton Taylor punt for 39 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 9 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:3591% → 94%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+44
90.9%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Mikey Welsh for 44 yds to the STBK 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
91.4%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the STBK 23Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-1
91.4%
Jayden Denegal run for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 24Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
91.1%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jordan NapierSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
94.4%
Gabriel Plascencia 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:408% → 8%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Chris Zellous pass incomplete to Jayden Flood-BrownSimilar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.8%
Chris Zellous pass complete to Dez Williams for 5 yds to the STBK 30Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
91.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Zellous,Chris pass incomplete short middle to Carson,Shakhi thrown to SBU33 broken up by Williams,Mister PENALTY SDSU Holding 10 yards from SBU30 to SBU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
91.5%
Shakhi Carson run for 1 yd to the STBK 41Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
91.6%
Chris Zellous run for 1 yd to the STBK 42Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+3
91.6%
Chris Zellous pass complete to Jayce Freeman for 3 yds to the STBK 45Similar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+5
91.6%
Clayton Taylor punt for 38 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 5 yds to the SDSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:4295% → 97%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
95.1%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jerry McClure for 18 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.3%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Lucky SuttonSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
95.3%
Lucky Sutton run for 4 yds to the SDSU 44Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+8
95.1%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 8 yds to the STBK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.3%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jordan NapierSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
95.3%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jerry McClure for 8 yds to the STBK 40Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
95.1%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the STBK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
95.3%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the STBK 35Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+17
95.3%
Lucky Sutton run for 17 yds to the STBK 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
95.3%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jackson FordSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
95.3%
Jayden Denegal run for 1 yd to the STBK 17Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
94.9%
Jayden Denegal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
97.2%
Gabriel Plascencia 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:054% → 4%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Casey Case pass incomplete to Dez WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
96.0%
Casey Case sacked by August Salvati for a loss of 8 yards to the STBK 17Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
96.1%
Roland Dempster run for no gain to the STBK 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:174% → 4%
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
96.3%
Roland Dempster run for 3 yds to the STBK 11Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+17
96.3%
Casey Case pass complete to Dez Williams for 17 yds to the STBK 28 for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.4%
Roland Dempster run for no gain to the STBK 28Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
96.6%
Roland Dempster run for 6 yds to the STBK 34Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
96.0%
Casey Case pass complete to Roland Dempster for no gain to the STBK 34Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+7
96.1%
Clayton Taylor punt for 42 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 7 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:0297% → 97%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
96.9%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 14 yds to the SDSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
97.0%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 44Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+2
97.0%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 2 yds to the SDSU 46Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
97.0%
Jayden Denegal run for no gain to the SDSU 46Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
96.9%
Hunter Green punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:513% → 3%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.8%
Casey Case pass complete to MarQeese Dietz for 4 yds to the STBK 24Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
96.7%
Casey Case pass incomplete to Cole BunicciSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+4
96.9%
Casey Case pass complete to MarQeese Dietz for 4 yds to the STBK 28Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+34
96.9%
Clayton Taylor punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STBK 38 , Jordan Napier returns for 34 yds to the STBK 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1297% → 97%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.3%
Lucky Sutton run for no gain to the STBK 38Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
97.3%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jacob BostickSimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+5
97.2%
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the STBK 33Similar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
97.2%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jordan NapierSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
97.2%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jordan NapierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:213% → 3%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.0%
Casey Case pass incomplete to Dez WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
97.1%
Casey Case pass incomplete to MarQeese DietzSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
97.2%
Casey Case pass incomplete to Jayce FreemanSimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
97.3%
Clayton Taylor punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Napier at the SDSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3198% → 98%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
97.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 4 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
97.5%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Lucky Sutton for 2 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
97.6%
Lucky Sutton run for no gain to the SDSU 33Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
97.5%
Hunter Green punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:003% → 2%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
97.4%
Roland Dempster run for 1 yd to the STBK 21Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
97.5%
Casey Case pass incomplete to Roland DempsterSimilar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
97.5%
Casey Case sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the STBK 16Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+6
97.6%
Clayton Taylor punt for 44 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 6 yds to the SDSU 46Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+6
97.6%
Clayton Taylor punt for 44 yds , Jordan Napier returns for 6 yds to the SDSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 0:2998% → 100%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+44
97.9%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 44 yds to the STBK 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
98.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the STBK 8Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
97.6%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the STBK 5Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
97.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Lucky Sutton for 3 yds to the STBK 2Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Lucky Sutton 2 Yd Run (DJ Herman Pass to Brady Anderson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.8%
PENALTY SDSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anderson,Brady) 15 yards from SDSU35 to SDSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.8%
Chris Zellous run for 4 yds to the STBK 42Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Shakhi Carson run for no gain to the STBK 42Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+15
99.8%
PENALTY SDSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anderson,Brady) 15 yards from SBU42 to SDSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Chris Zellous pass incomplete to Nolan SlywkaSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.8%
Chris Zellous run for 4 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Chris Zellous pass incomplete to Jayce FreemanSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Chris Zellous pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:48100% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.8%
Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
99.8%
PENALTY SDSU False Start (Ford,Jackson) 5 yards from SDSU41 to SDSU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+27
99.8%
Christian Washington run for 27 yds to the STBK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
99.8%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 17 yds to the STBK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.9%
Christian Washington run for 1 yd to the STBK 19Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
99.9%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 10 yds to the STBK 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.9%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 2 yds to the STBK 7Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.9%
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the STBK 2Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Christian Washington run for 1 yd to the STBK 1Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Christian Washington run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Roland Dempster run for 4 yds to the STBK 29Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the STBK 32Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Chris Zellous pass incomplete to RJ LamarreSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
100.0%
Clayton Taylor punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 29 , Mikey Welsh returns for 10 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Cincere Rhaney run for 3 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-10
99.9%
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Rhaney,Cincere rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SDSU39 (Jenkins,Jocquan) PENALTY SDSU Holding (Kassim,Ikbahl) 10 yards from SDSU32 to SDSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 17
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 5 yds to the SDSU 27Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Hunter Green punt for 56 yds, fair catch by MarQeese Dietz at the STBK 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
100.0%
Shakhi Carson run for 2 yds to the STBK 19Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-1
100.0%
Chris Zellous run for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 18Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 9
OWN 18
-11
100.0%
Stony Brook Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-11 Yards) to the STBK 7Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 20
OWN 7
+6
100.0%
Clayton Taylor punt for 43 yds , Mikey Welsh returns for 6 yds to the STBK 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Cincere Rhaney run for 2 yds to the STBK 42Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+15
99.9%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Emanuel, Jr.,Bert pass incomplete deep right to McClure,Jerry thrown to SBU05 broken up by Askin,Shamar PENALTY SBU Pass Interference (Askin,Shamar) 15 yards from SBU42 to SBU27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
99.9%
Cincere Rhaney run for 8 yds to the STBK 19Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+1
100.0%
Cincere Rhaney run for no gain to the STBK 19Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+3
100.0%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 3 yds to the STBK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
100.0%
Cincere Rhaney run for 5 yds to the STBK 11Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+3
100.0%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Myles Kitt-Denton for 3 yds to the STBK 14Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+9
100.0%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 9 yds to the STBK 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Parker Threatt run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Clegg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the STBK 27Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the STBK 29Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
100.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 7 yds to the STBK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 8:31
Gabriel Plascencia 42 yd FG GOOD
+3.3
FG · Q2 1:09
Gabriel Plascencia 35 yd FG GOOD
+2.3
TD · Q3 1:40
Lucky Sutton 2 Yd Run (DJ Herman Pass to Brady Anderson for Two-Point Conversion)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com