Try the model
BOIS

Boise State 7 at San Diego State 17

SDSU
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Snapdragon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:13 · (03:20) #93 H.Green punt 48 yards to the BSU46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q2 13:13: (13:13) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 20 yards gain to the BSU45 fumbled by #26 S.Gaines at BSU45 forced by #0 B.Phillips, out of bounds at BSU45, 1ST DOWN — BOIS win probability +7.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:30: Timeout Boise State, clock 01:30 — BOIS win probability +7.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:23: (01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU07 (#0 T.Benefield; #19 D.Washington) — SDSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:16: (01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush right for 1 yard loss to the BSU08 (#19 D.Washington) — SDSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:10: (01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:10 #11 G.Plascencia kick attempt good (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez) — SDSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:43BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:52SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:50BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:52SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:25BOIS 4th & 7 at SDSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:13SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:16BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:22BOIS 4th & 1 at SDSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−1.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:32SDSU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.9%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:54SDSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 46, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−3.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:44BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:35SDSU 4th & 8 at BOIS 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:16BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:51SDSU 4th & 4 at BOIS 30, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%−1.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:12BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:38SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:20BOIS 4th & 8 at SDSU 24, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%−0.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:15SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:10SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0951% → 51%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.7%
(14:57) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU26 (#6 E.Butler)Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
48.8%
(14:26) #24 D.Riley rush right for 4 yards gain to the BSU30 (#33 B.Nassar)Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
49.0%
(13:52) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short left to #3 L.Caples thrown to BSU38 broken up by #6 E.ButlerSimilar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
49.0%
(13:47) #37 O.Doyle punt 41 yards to the SDSU29 fair catch by #2 J.Napier at SDSU29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4749% → 49%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
49.0%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short left to #2 J.Napier thrown to SDSU33 QB hurried by #90 B.FelySimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
49.0%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #14 D.Brown caught at SDSU29, for 1 yard to the SDSU30 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
49.0%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short right to #11 M.Welsh thrown to SDSU36Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
49.0%
(12:57) #93 H.Green punt 43 yards to the BSU27 fair catch by #8 M.Sherrod at BSU27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:5451% → 50%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
49.1%
(12:50) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush right for 6 yards gain to the BSU33 (#1 C.Johnson)Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+6
49.1%
(12:17) #24 D.Riley rush left for 6 yards gain to the BSU39 (#26 D.McDougle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
49.2%
(11:41) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #3 L.Caples caught at BSU38, for 0 yards to the BSU39 (#0 B.Phillips; #9 D.Staley)Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
49.2%
(11:10) #26 S.Gaines rush left for 6 yards gain to the BSU45 (#12 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+1
49.2%
(10:36) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush right for 1 yard gain to the BSU46 (#33 B.Nassar)Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
49.6%
(09:57) #37 O.Doyle punt 43 yards to the SDSU11 #2 J.Napier return 0 yards to the SDSU11 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5250% → 49%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
49.8%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SDSU15 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan; #43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
49.8%
PENALTY SDSU False Start (#76 K.Ellis) 5 yards from SDSU15 to SDSU10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+4
49.8%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SDSU14 (#53 M.Notarainni; #0 T.Benefield)Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+1
49.5%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SDSU15 (#53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+2
49.4%
(08:01) #93 H.Green punt 53 yards to the BSU32 #8 M.Sherrod return 2 yards to the BSU34 (#34 D.Harrington), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1250% → 50%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
49.7%
(07:50) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short right to #80 C.Bates caught at BSU42, for 8 yards to the BSU42 (#1 C.Johnson)Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+8
49.2%
(07:19) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU50 (#9 D.Staley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
50
-1
49.2%
(06:44) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short middle to #3 L.Caples caught at BSU49, for 1 yard loss to the BSU49 (#44 N.King)Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+4
49.6%
(06:05) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SDSU47 (#9 D.Staley)Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
49.4%
(05:34) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short left to #13 C.Penry thrown to SDSU38 broken up by #6 E.ButlerSimilar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
50.3%
(05:30) #37 O.Doyle punt 41 yards to the SDSU06 fair catch by #2 J.Napier at SDSU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0750% → 50%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
50.3%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SDSU09 (#43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+1
50.3%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush left for 1 yard gain to the SDSU10 (#43 J.Ripp; #90 B.Fely)Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 6
OWN 10
-4
50.0%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short left to #7 L.Sutton caught at SDSU05, for 4 yards loss to the SDSU06 (#43 J.Ripp; #99 M.Madrie)Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
49.7%
(03:20) #93 H.Green punt 48 yards to the BSU46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4951% → 49%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
49.5%
(03:09) #24 D.Riley rush right for 1 yard gain to the BSU47 (#12 O.Chambliss; #41 M.Williams)Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+2
49.3%
(02:37) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush left for 2 yards gain to the BSU49 (#41 M.Williams)Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-1
49.5%
(01:58) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth rush right for 1 yard loss to the BSU48 fumbled by #14 M.Cutforth at BSU49 recovered by BSU #8 M.Sherrod at BSU48, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
50.7%
(01:20) #37 O.Doyle punt 52 yards to the SDSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5151% → 60%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
51.3%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 41 yards gain to the BSU39 (#0 T.Benefield), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
53.1%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU37 (#19 D.Washington)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+26
53.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 26 yards gain to the BSU11 (#7 A.McCoy; #21 Z.Washington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
53.8%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU07 (#0 T.Benefield; #41 B.Phelps)Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+6
54.1%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BSU01 (#41 B.Phelps), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.6%
(13:19) No Huddle #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:15 #11 G.Plascencia kick attempt good (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:4449% → 52%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
50.8%
(13:13) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 20 yards gain to the BSU45 fumbled by #26 S.Gaines at BSU45 forced by #0 B.Phillips, out of bounds at BSU45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
49.4%
(12:45) #26 S.Gaines rush right for 11 yards gain to the SDSU44 (#42 B.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
49.0%
(12:08) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SDSU41 (#12 O.Chambliss; #41 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
49.0%
(11:34) #8 M.Sherrod rush left for 0 yards to the SDSU41 (#91 A.Comier)Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
49.4%
(11:01) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #3 L.Caples caught at SDSU45, for 6 yards to the SDSU35 (#2 T.White)Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
50.4%
(10:25) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDSU33 (#0 B.Phillips), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
48.2%
(09:52) #24 D.Riley rush right for 2 yards gain to the SDSU31 (#41 M.Williams; #55 M.Finau)Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+8
48.2%
(09:10) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SDSU23 (#2 T.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
48.0%
(08:36) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 9 yards gain to the SDSU14 (#0 B.Phillips)Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+5
47.0%
PENALTY BSU False Start (#88 M.Wagner) 5 yards from SDSU14 to SDSU19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
46.8%
(07:48) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SDSU14 (#6 E.Butler; #26 D.McDougle)Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
47.6%
(07:21) #26 S.Gaines rush left for 2 yards gain to the SDSU12 (#0 B.Phillips), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
46.7%
(06:43) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDSU10 (#12 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+1
46.7%
(06:09) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SDSU09 (#42 B.Anderson)Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
47.6%
(05:32) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:29, 1ST DOWN #35 C.Boomer kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #42 M.Hutton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10TD
16 plays · 71 yds · 3:5954% → 68%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
53.6%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #2 J.Napier caught at SDSU27, for 2 yards loss to the SDSU27 (#20 J.Mickey)Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+14
53.3%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 14 yards gain to the SDSU41 (#53 M.Notarainni; #21 Z.Washington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
55.3%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short left to #2 J.Napier thrown to SDSU42Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
54.6%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SDSU45 (#53 M.Notarainni; #19 D.Washington)Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
55.0%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SDSU50 (#41 B.Phelps)Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 1
50
+27
54.0%
(02:38) #7 L.Sutton rush left for 27 yards gain to the BSU23 (#0 T.Benefield; #10 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
57.4%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU15 (#53 M.Notarainni; #6 J.Earby)Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+7
57.5%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BSU08 (#41 B.Phelps; #6 J.Earby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
57.8%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU07 (#0 T.Benefield; #19 D.Washington)Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
59.3%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush right for 1 yard loss to the BSU08 (#19 D.Washington)Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
68.3%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:10 #11 G.Plascencia kick attempt good (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:2432% → 33%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.7%
(01:08) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush right for 6 yards gain to the BSU31 (#41 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
67.0%
(00:36) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush left for 3 yards gain to the BSU34 (#41 M.Williams; #90 S.Benjamin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:5466% → 68%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.4%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 9 yards gain to the SDSU34 (#0 T.Benefield; #7 A.McCoy)Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
67.9%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 12 yards gain to the SDSU46 (#0 T.Benefield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
69.0%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 4 yards gain (4) to the SDSU50 (#6 J.Earby) PENALTY SDSU Illegal Block in Back (#13 N.Acevedo) 10 yards from BSU50 to SDSU40Similar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 16
OWN 40
+11
68.1%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BSU49 (#21 Z.Washington)Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
69.5%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU46 (#99 M.Madrie)Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
69.5%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep right to #14 D.Brown thrown to BSU17Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
68.1%
(12:00) #93 H.Green punt 46 yards to the BSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:0433% → 30%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
66.7%
(11:52) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BSU26 (#9 D.Staley)Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
66.3%
(11:22) #8 M.Sherrod rush right for 5 yards gain to the BSU31 (#1 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
66.7%
(10:45) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BSU30 (#2 T.White; #26 D.McDougle)Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+8
67.8%
(10:11) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush right for 8 yards gain to the BSU38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-3
66.5%
(09:27) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush left for 3 yards loss to the BSU35 (#12 O.Chambliss; #6 E.Butler)Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
69.7%
(08:49) #37 O.Doyle punt 36 yards to the SDSU29 fair catch by #11 M.Welsh at SDSU29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:0372% → 74%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
71.5%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SDSU34 (#21 Z.Washington; #43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+23
73.9%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short left to #11 M.Welsh caught at BSU48, for 23 yards to the BSU43 (#6 J.Earby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
75.9%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #11 M.Welsh caught at BSU46, for 3 yards loss to the BSU46 (#20 J.Mickey)Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+4
75.2%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU42 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+1
75.3%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU41 (#53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
73.8%
(05:39) #93 H.Green punt 41 yards to the BSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 4:1330% → 24%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
69.8%
(05:33) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU24 (#2 T.White)Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
70.3%
(05:01) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU29 (#2 T.White; #26 D.McDougle)Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
70.8%
(04:24) #14 M.Cutforth rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU31 (#12 O.Chambliss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
70.5%
(03:45) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 12 yards gain (4) to the BSU43 (#26 D.McDougle) PENALTY BSU Face Mask (#26 S.Gaines) 15 yards from BSU35 to BSU20Similar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 21
OWN 20
0
71.7%
(03:16) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 0 yards to the BSU20 (#90 S.Benjamin; #44 N.King)Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 21
OWN 20
+6
72.5%
(02:34) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short middle to #3 L.Caples caught at BSU25, for 6 yards to the BSU26 (#12 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+4
73.8%
(01:59) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU30 (#2 T.White)Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
76.3%
(01:23) #37 O.Doyle punt 39 yards to the SDSU31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 5:1580% → 85%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
79.9%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SDSU38 (#41 B.Phelps)Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-1
82.0%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard loss to the SDSU37 (#43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+14
81.8%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 14 yards gain to the BSU49 (#41 B.Phelps), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
83.9%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush right for 3 yards gain to the BSU46 (#6 J.Earby)Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+10
84.5%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell rush right for 10 yards gain to the BSU36 (#6 J.Earby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
85.2%
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU34 (#21 Z.Washington; #94 K.Mailoto)Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+3
85.9%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Cardwell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU31 (#96 L.Sanusi)Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+1
85.1%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Welsh rush left for 1 yard gain to the BSU30 (#0 T.Benefield; #21 Z.Washington)Similar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+47
85.0%
(10:51) #11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez), clock 10:51Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:2215% → 10%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
85.5%
(10:48) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short right to #3 L.Caples caught at BSU34, for 9 yards to the BSU44 (#1 C.Johnson)Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
84.2%
(10:12) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU49 (#41 M.Williams; #12 O.Chambliss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
85.2%
(09:38) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SDSU46 (#42 B.Anderson)Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
85.3%
(08:59) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at SDSU48, for 4 yards to the SDSU42 (#91 A.Comier)Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-1
85.4%
(08:19) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard loss to the SDSU43 (#41 M.Williams)Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+10
87.5%
(07:43) #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #80 C.Bates caught at SDSU27, for 19 yards to the SDSU24 (#26 D.McDougle) PENALTY BSU Holding 10 yards from SDSU43 to BSU47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
90.0%
(07:17) #37 O.Doyle punt 39 yards to the SDSU14 fair catch by #11 M.Welsh at SDSU14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:2790% → 94%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
90.0%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SDSU20 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+7
91.0%
(06:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SDSU27 (#20 J.Mickey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
91.4%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 0 yards to the SDSU27 (#43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
91.4%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush right for 4 yards gain to the SDSU31 (#53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+7
92.0%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SDSU38 (#92 D.Latu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+2
92.4%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short left to #11 M.Welsh caught at SDSU36, for 2 yards to the SDSU40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+1
93.0%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SDSU41 (#43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+1
94.3%
(03:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush left for 1 yard gain to the SDSU42 (#41 B.Phelps)Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
94.4%
(03:45) #93 H.Green punt 39 yards to the BSU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 2:014% → 4%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
95.8%
(03:34) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short right to #13 C.Penry caught at BSU38, for 19 yards to the BSU38 (#9 D.Staley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.1%
(03:11) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth rush right for 0 yards to the BSU38 (#2 T.White), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
96.3%
(02:44) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short right to #3 L.Caples caught at BSU47, for 9 yards to the BSU47 (#1 C.Johnson)Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+13
96.4%
(02:28) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #3 L.Caples caught at SDSU40, for 13 yards to the SDSU40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.8%
(02:09) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short right to #13 C.Penry thrown to SDSU35 broken up by #1 C.JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
95.9%
(02:06) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short left to #85 M.Lauter thrown to SDSU34Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
95.6%
(02:01) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short middle to #13 C.Penry caught at SDSU27, for 14 yards to the SDSU26 (#26 D.McDougle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
94.6%
(01:55) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short right thrown to SDSU15 PENALTY BSU Personal Foul 15 yards from SDSU26 to SDSU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 25
OPP 41
0
95.9%
(01:50) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short middle thrown to SDSU31 broken up by #33 B.Nassar QB hurried by #33 B.NassarSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 25
OPP 41
+17
96.0%
(01:41) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short right to #13 C.Penry caught at SDSU25, for 17 yards to the SDSU24 (#1 C.Johnson; #31 J.Badie)Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
95.5%
(01:25) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short right thrown to SDSU18Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
96.1%
(01:23) #35 C.Boomer field goal attempt from 41 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #42 M.Hutton), clock 01:20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
97.1%
(01:19) Kneel down by #4 J.Denegal at SDSU23 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-1
97.1%
(01:03) Kneel down by #4 J.Denegal at SDSU22 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 12
OWN 22
-1
97.2%
(00:14) Kneel down by #4 J.Denegal at SDSU21 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:10
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:10 #11 G.Plascencia kick attempt good (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez)
+15.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:23
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU07 (#0 T.Benefield; #19 D.Washington)
+7.6
FUMBLE · Q2 13:13
(13:13) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 20 yards gain to the BSU45 fumbled by #26 S.Gaines at BSU45 forced by #0 B.Phillips, out of bounds at BSU45, 1ST DOWN
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com