San Diego State

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense−0.094th
  Defense+0.1526th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense32.3%1st
  Defense47.7%8th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2861st
  Defense+1.1188th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0217th
  Defense+0.0551st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense−0.132nd
  Defense+0.3123rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense37.4%1st
  Defense52.4%10th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense23.9%12th
  Defense34.9%19th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9738th
  Defense3.377th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.9%20th
  Defense11.1%1st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.0%28th
  Defense12.0%7th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   PRST
2. L
   UCLA
3. L
   JMU
4. L
   TOL
5. W
   TXST
6. L
   ORST

Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego State.

Players, 2026

1. Jayden DenegalQB115 plays · +0.056 pts/play · 126th of 192 QBs
   0.12WAR−0.05 to 0.29
2. Javion KinnardRB51 plays · +0.111 pts/play · 69th of 320 RBs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.14
3. Lucky SuttonRB28 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 152nd of 320 RBs
   0.07WAR0.05 to 0.09
4. Nathan AcevedoWR19 plays · +0.110 pts/play · 185th of 364 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
5. Jordan NapierWR16 plays · +0.120 pts/play · 197th of 364 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
6. Jacob BostickWR13 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 241st of 364 WRs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.04
7. Jackson FordTE6 plays · +0.116 pts/play · 89th of 164 TEs
   0.01WAR0.01 to 0.02
8. Donovan BrownWR8 plays · +0.057 pts/play · 314th of 364 WRs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San Diego State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  60960989th of 138Roster talent: 609, 89th of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17317377th of 138Recruiting: 173, 77th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  99%99%3rd of 136Returning production: 99%, 3rd of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −10.2−10.2109th of 138SP+ rating so far: −10.2, 109th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs TXSTQ4 1:26 4th & 3 at TXST 42, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−5.6 pts
2. vs JMUQ4 4:19 4th & 10 at JMU 19, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−2.0 pts
3. vs TXSTQ3 1:21 4th & 2 at SDSU 36, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
4. at UCLAQ4 13:11 4th & 4 at UCLA 28, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
5. vs TXSTQ2 1:29 4th & 11 at TXST 37, down 14Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts
6. vs JMUQ3 1:05 4th & 3 at SDSU 36, down 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
7. at TOLQ3 13:28 4th & 2 at SDSU 35, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. at TOLQ3 0:20 4th & 11 at TOL 11, down 25Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

113th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San Diego State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   PRST
2. L

   UCLA
3. L

   JMU
4. L

   TOL
5. W

   TXST
6. L

   ORST

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at San Diego State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.26
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock−0.04
• Timeouts+0.04
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.28

Game by game

• PRSTW 53-20 vs PRST99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• UCLAL 10-28 at UCLA21% → 1%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −24, Timeouts −1
• JMUL 13-26 vs JMU68% → 2%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −66: Scoreboard −58, Clock −4
• TOLL 16-41 at TOL48% → 0%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −48: Scoreboard −48, Timeouts +3
• TXSTW 31-29 vs TXST28% → 87%Before kickoff −22 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +24, Possession & field position +3
• ORSTL 14-66 at ORST20% → 0%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −23

Points of win probability, from San Diego State's side.

Closest call

TOL 14-17 SDSU (2022) - San Diego State dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.