Try the model
SDSU

San Diego State 10 at UCLA 28

UCLA
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Rose Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:09 · (07:24) #89 T.Dorje punt 77 yards to the UCLA19 #7 M.Matthews return 22 yards to the UCLA41 (#20 J.McLaughlin)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior+18.8Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:17: (11:20) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17, 1ST DOWN #15 M.Bhaghani kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Barry, LS: #44 G.Cereghino) — UCLA win probability +9.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:57: (08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Emanuel, Jr. rush left for 14 yards gain to the SDSU38 (#12 M.Hartford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN — SDSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:11: (13:15) #96 C.DiLeva field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #89 T.Dorje, LS: #64 C.Poulson), clock 13:11 — SDSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:17: (07:17) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush right for 7 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:17 #15 M.Bhaghani kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Barry, LS: #44 G.Cereghino) — UCLA win probability +12.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:28: (02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #15 J.Ford caught at UCLA00, for 19 yards to the UCLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:28, 1ST DOWN #96 C.DiLeva kick attempt good (H: #89 T.Dorje, LS: #64 C.Poulson) — SDSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:10UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 43, tied
    Close callWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:24SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:29UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:09SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:08UCLA 4th & 7 at SDSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:21SDSU 4th & 9 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:22SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:20SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:04UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:41SDSU 4th & 9 at UCLA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:39UCLA 4th & 17 at UCLA 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−4.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:11SDSU 4th & 4 at UCLA 28, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%−0.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−9.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:32SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SDSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q3 11:17UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 7:17UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:31UCLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:28SDSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:16UCLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4479% → 78%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short left to #2 B.Rowe Jr. caught at UCLA23, for 9 yards to the UCLA34 (#29 J.Hunter), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
79.1%
(14:22) Shotgun #6 A.Woods rush right for 6 yards gain to the UCLA40 (#20 J.McLaughlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
78.9%
(13:45) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass incomplete short right to #1 A.Mizell thrown to UCLA43 broken up by #33 B.NassarSimilar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
78.9%
(13:41) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short right to #4 S.Morgan caught at UCLA44, for 4 yards to the UCLA44 (#21 T.Letuli)Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+4
78.7%
(13:03) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short middle to #4 S.Morgan caught at UCLA47, for 4 yards to the UCLA48 (#29 J.Hunter)Similar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+5
78.6%
PENALTY UCLA Delay Of Game (#9 N.Iamaleava) 5 yards from UCLA48 to UCLA43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+6
78.4%
(12:10) #35 C.Gerrand punt 53 yards to the SDSU04 #3 N.Acevedo return 6 yards to the SDSU10 fumbled by #3 N.Acevedo at SDSU10 forced by #10 S.Omosigho recovered by SDSU #29 J.Hunter at SDSU10, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:2822% → 22%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
78.4%
(11:56) Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SDSU14 (#90 A.Washington; #27 T.James)Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
78.3%
PENALTY UCLA Offside (#95 T.Ford) 5 yards from SDSU14 to SDSU19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+5
78.2%
PENALTY SDSU False Start (#15 J.Ford) 5 yards from SDSU19 to SDSU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+8
78.1%
(10:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SDSU22 (#12 M.Hartford; #15 S.West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
77.9%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short left to #5 B.Emanuel, Jr. caught at SDSU29, for 7 yards to the SDSU29 (#1 S.Jackson; #12 M.Hartford)Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+7
77.7%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SDSU36 (#9 J.Woods; #32 D.Barksdale), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
77.6%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SDSU37 (#12 M.Hartford; #9 J.Woods)Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
77.3%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short left to #7 L.Sutton thrown to SDSU36 broken up by #12 M.HartfordSimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
77.4%
(08:39) Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short right to #14 D.Brown thrown to SDSU45Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+10
77.6%
(08:34) #89 T.Dorje punt 53 yards to the UCLA10 #7 M.Matthews return 10 yards to the UCLA20 (#29 J.Hunter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:5077% → 76%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
77.4%
(08:23) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush right for 2 yards gain to the UCLA22 (#21 T.Letuli)Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
77.1%
(07:46) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCLA29 (#0 S.Hala)Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
77.0%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short left to #2 B.Rowe Jr. caught at UCLA25, for 8 yards to the UCLA37 (#20 J.McLaughlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
77.1%
(06:43) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCLA40 (#91 A.Comier)Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
77.2%
(05:58) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short left to #4 S.Morgan caught at UCLA37, for 3 yards to the UCLA43 (#0 S.Hala), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
76.9%
(05:18) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush right for 0 yards to the UCLA43 (#0 S.Hala)Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+5
76.2%
(04:37) #35 C.Gerrand punt 48 yards to the SDSU09 #3 N.Acevedo return 5 yards to the SDSU14 (#20 S.Taylor)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:3324% → 26%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
76.2%
(04:29) Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SDSU17 (#97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+6
76.0%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SDSU23 (#12 M.Hartford; #9 J.Woods)Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
75.9%
(03:23) Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDSU25 (#0 D.Pellot; #90 A.Washington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.7%
(03:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep left to #14 D.Brown thrown to UCLA32Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.6%
(03:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SDSU33 (#44 A.Sanders; #2 R.Pleasant)Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
74.9%
(02:14) Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SDSU38 (#19 R.McCulloch; #25 T.Hendrick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
74.4%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SDSU41 (#12 M.Hartford; #55 A.Fuimaono)Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
73.9%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush middle for 0 yards to the SDSU41 (#92 D.DeNgohe; #10 S.Omosigho)Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+3
74.1%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SDSU44 (#97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+9
74.3%
(15:00) #89 T.Dorje punt 45 yards to the UCLA11 #7 M.Matthews return 9 yards to the UCLA20 (#29 J.Hunter), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5INT
10 plays · 78 yds · 5:3075% → 75%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
75.0%
(14:52) Shotgun #6 A.Woods rush right for 5 yards gain to the UCLA25 (#16 J.Whitmore)Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
75.0%
(14:15) Shotgun #6 A.Woods rush left for 3 yards gain to the UCLA28 (#21 T.Letuli; #24 J.Cox)Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
74.3%
(13:34) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short right to #21 J.Thomas caught at UCLA23, for 4 yards to the UCLA32 (#21 T.Letuli), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
74.6%
(12:49) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush right for 2 yards gain to the UCLA34 (#95 G.Lightfoot; #42 C.Cooper)Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+45
74.4%
(12:06) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short left to #2 B.Rowe Jr. caught at UCLA41, for 45 yards to the SDSU21 (#29 J.Hunter), 1ST DOWN. #2 B.Rowe Jr. injured on the playSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
75.9%
(11:32) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass incomplete short right to #19 H.Lodge thrown to SDSU15 QB hurried by #33 B.NassarSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+12
75.9%
(11:25) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush middle for 12 yards gain to the SDSU09 (#20 J.McLaughlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
75.8%
(10:43) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush right for 4 yards gain to the SDSU05 (#42 C.Cooper)Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
75.8%
(10:04) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short left to #86 J.Saint Paul caught at SDSU07, for 3 yards to the SDSU02 (#14 I.Green)Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
75.0%
(09:25) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass intercepted by #27 M.Lindsay at SDSU00 #27 M.Lindsay return 2 yards to the SDSU02 (#85 B.Loftin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0428% → 27%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
72.4%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush left for 4 yards gain to the SDSU06 (#15 S.West; #9 J.Woods)Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 6
-2
72.3%
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 2 yards loss to the SDSU04 (#15 S.West; #90 A.Washington)Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
72.4%
(08:03) Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #14 D.Brown caught at SDSU03, for 0 yards to the SDSU04 (#24 C.Cogshell)Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+22
72.8%
(07:24) #89 T.Dorje punt 77 yards to the UCLA19 #7 M.Matthews return 22 yards to the UCLA41 (#20 J.McLaughlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 21 yds · 4:5675% → 71%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
74.6%
(07:09) Shotgun #6 A.Woods rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCLA45 (#95 G.Lightfoot)Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
74.9%
(06:36) Shotgun #21 J.Thomas rush right for 6 yards gain to the SDSU49 (#21 T.Letuli), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
75.1%
(05:57) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush right for 3 yards gain to the SDSU46 (#0 S.Hala)Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
74.2%
(05:11) Shotgun #6 A.Woods rush left for 3 yards gain to the SDSU43 (#27 M.Lindsay)Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+4
73.7%
(04:35) Shotgun #6 A.Woods rush right for 4 yards gain to the SDSU39 (#0 S.Hala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
74.0%
(03:57) Shotgun #21 J.Thomas rush left for 0 yards to the SDSU39 (#91 A.Comier). #76 M.Indestad injured on the playSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
73.8%
(03:31) PENALTY UCLA False Start 5 yards from SDSU39 to SDSU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 15
OPP 44
0
72.4%
(03:03) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass incomplete short middle to #4 S.Morgan thrown to SDSU31 broken up by #91 A.ComierSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+8
71.0%
(02:59) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short right to #86 J.Saint Paul caught at SDSU32, for 8 yards to the SDSU36 (#21 T.Letuli; #35 T.Lave)Similar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 7
OPP 36
-2
71.1%
(02:08) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava sacked for loss of 2 yards to the SDSU38 (#6 M.Finau), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 12 yds · 1:3434% → 32%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.1%
(02:00) Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep left to #17 J.Bostick thrown to UCLA20Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
66.2%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #3 N.Acevedo caught at SDSU42, for 6 yards to the SDSU44 (#32 D.Barksdale; #12 M.Hartford)Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
65.0%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep left to #17 J.Bostick thrown to UCLA19 PENALTY UCLA Offside (#12 M.Hartford) 5 yards from SDSU44 to SDSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
64.4%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 6 yards gain (6) to the UCLA45 (#2 R.Pleasant) PENALTY SDSU Personal Foul (#88 R.Wolfer) 15 yards from UCLA45 to SDSU40Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 19
OWN 40
+10
66.2%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short left to #21 J.Kinnard caught at SDSU35, for 10 yards to the SDSU50 (#97 A.Gobaira; #27 T.James)Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 9
50
+10
64.4%
(00:50) Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep left to #17 J.Bostick thrown to UCLA08 PENALTY SDSU Holding (#78 J.Borjon) 10 yards from SDSU50 to SDSU40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 19
OWN 40
0
67.0%
(00:43) Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush left for 0 yards to the SDSU40 (#24 C.Cogshell)Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+10
67.6%
(00:30) Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 10 yards gain to the SDSU50 (#9 J.Woods), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 9
50
0
67.9%
(00:28) #89 T.Dorje punt 50 yards to the UCLA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9END OF HALF
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:1472% → 71%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
71.7%
(00:20) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush right for 11 yards gain to the UCLA31 (#21 T.Letuli), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
72.1%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
71.9%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass incomplete deep middle to #4 S.Morgan thrown to SDSU42 QB hurried by #95 G.LightfootSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-1
70.5%
(00:02) Kneel down by #9 N.Iamaleava at UCLA30 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3533% → 31%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short left to #3 N.Acevedo thrown to SDSU21Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.1%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush right for 2 yards gain to the SDSU27 (#27 T.James)Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
67.7%
(14:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal sacked for loss of 5 yards to the SDSU22 (#9 J.Woods)Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+25
68.7%
(13:31) #89 T.Dorje punt 46 yards to the UCLA32 #4 S.Morgan return 25 yards to the SDSU43 (#22 M.Garrison; #15 O.Eyafe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 2:0073% → 82%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
72.6%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SDSU40 (#18 K.Wallin)Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+25
72.2%
(12:41) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush right for 25 yards gain to the SDSU15 (#20 J.McLaughlin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
72.7%
(12:02) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SDSU08 (#0 S.Hala; #18 K.Wallin)Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
82.1%
(11:20) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17, 1ST DOWN #15 M.Bhaghani kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Barry, LS: #44 G.Cereghino)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5221% → 20%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.8%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 0 yards to the SDSU25 (#9 J.Woods; #10 S.Omosigho)Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.0%
(10:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep left to #85 J.Lowe thrown to UCLA41Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
79.8%
(10:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep right to #12 J.Hawkins thrown to UCLA26Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
80.5%
(10:28) #89 T.Dorje punt 39 yards to the UCLA36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1081% → 82%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
80.5%
(10:20) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush right for 8 yards gain to the UCLA44 (#20 J.McLaughlin), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
82.8%
(09:45) Shotgun #6 A.Woods rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCLA47 (#24 J.Cox), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
82.9%
(09:06) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass incomplete short middle to #2 B.Rowe Jr. thrown to SDSU41Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
82.6%
(09:03) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCLA49 (#29 J.Hunter)Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
81.8%
(08:21) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass incomplete deep left to #20 S.Rosenthal thrown to SDSU10 broken up by #27 M.LindsaySimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 8
OWN 49
+16
81.5%
(08:14) #35 C.Gerrand punt 43 yards to the SDSU08 #3 N.Acevedo return 16 yards to the SDSU24 (#21 D.Lovett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:1626% → 20%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+14
74.2%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Emanuel, Jr. rush left for 14 yards gain to the SDSU38 (#12 M.Hartford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
77.6%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short middle to #5 B.Emanuel, Jr. caught at SDSU40, for 3 yards to the SDSU41 (#12 M.Hartford; #55 A.Fuimaono)Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
77.1%
(07:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UCLA49 (#9 J.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
75.9%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UCLA50 (#10 S.Omosigho)Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 11
50
-4
77.0%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal sacked for loss of 7 yards to the SDSU43 (#20 S.Taylor, #27 T.James)Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 18
OWN 43
+9
79.3%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush right for 9 yards gain to the UCLA48 (#20 S.Taylor)Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
79.6%
(04:47) #89 T.Dorje punt 40 yards to the UCLA08 fair catch by #4 S.Morgan at UCLA08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:5682% → 83%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
81.6%
(04:39) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCLA09 (#11 K.Clay; #95 G.Lightfoot)Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+11
81.5%
(03:59) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short right to #4 S.Morgan caught at UCLA07, for 11 yards to the UCLA20 (#45 D.Rahman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
82.2%
(03:15) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short right to #2 B.Rowe Jr. caught at UCLA24, for 4 yards to the UCLA24 (#16 J.Whitmore)Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
83.3%
(02:38) Shotgun #21 J.Thomas rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCLA31 (#20 J.McLaughlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
85.7%
(01:56) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass incomplete deep middle to #85 B.Loftin thrown to SDSU45Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
83.4%
(01:48) Shotgun #21 J.Thomas rush left for 3 yards gain to the UCLA34 (#11 K.Clay)Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-10
84.4%
(01:09) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UCLA24 (#42 C.Cooper)Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 17
OWN 24
+3
83.0%
(00:50) #35 C.Gerrand punt 55 yards to the SDSU21 #3 N.Acevedo return 3 yards to the SDSU24 (#9 J.Woods), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:2319% → 30%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
80.8%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SDSU25 (#92 D.DeNgohe; #95 T.Ford)Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+2
81.0%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush right for 2 yards gain to the SDSU27 (#39 A.Sacca; #32 D.Barksdale)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+15
81.7%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep right to #14 D.Brown thrown to UCLA30 PENALTY UCLA Face Mask (#2 R.Pleasant) 15 yards from SDSU27 to SDSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
79.3%
(14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 14 yards gain to the UCLA44 (#12 M.Hartford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
77.4%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush right for 10 yards gain to the UCLA34 (#27 T.James; #92 D.DeNgohe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
78.1%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short left to #2 J.Napier thrown to UCLA21 QB hurried by #10 S.OmosighoSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
78.1%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UCLA28 (#12 M.Hartford)Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
79.3%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep right to #14 D.Brown thrown to UCLA01 broken up by #27 T.James. #4 J.Denegal injured on the playSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
70.5%
(13:15) #96 C.DiLeva field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #89 T.Dorje, LS: #64 C.Poulson), clock 13:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4975% → 94%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.1%
(13:11) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UCLA30 (#18 K.Wallin)Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
75.6%
(12:35) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCLA31 (#45 D.Rahman)Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
74.2%
(11:54) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush right for 5 yards gain to the UCLA36 (#21 T.Letuli; #29 J.Hunter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
76.0%
(11:11) Shotgun #6 A.Woods rush right for 2 yards gain to the UCLA38 (#18 K.Wallin; #0 S.Hala)Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+31
76.3%
(10:26) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete deep right to #4 S.Morgan caught at SDSU35, for 31 yards to the SDSU31 (#14 I.Green), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
79.1%
(09:39) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short left to #2 B.Rowe Jr. caught at SDSU34, for 3 yards loss to the SDSU34 (#27 M.Lindsay)Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+20
78.6%
(08:58) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete deep middle to #4 S.Morgan caught at SDSU14, for 20 yards to the SDSU14 (#14 I.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
79.9%
PENALTY UCLA False Start (#4 S.Morgan) 5 yards from SDSU14 to SDSU19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+5
81.5%
(07:51) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SDSU14 (#0 S.Hala) PENALTY SDSU Face Mask (#29 J.Hunter) 7 yards from SDSU14 to SDSU07, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.6%
(07:17) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush right for 7 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:17 #15 M.Bhaghani kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Barry, LS: #44 G.Cereghino)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:428% → 7%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
92.1%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush right for 2 yards loss to the SDSU23 (#10 S.Omosigho)Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
92.0%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep left to #2 J.Napier thrown to UCLA36 broken up by #32 D.BarksdaleSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
92.9%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass intercepted by #9 J.Woods at SDSU19 #9 J.Woods return 0 yards to the SDSU19 (#21 J.Kinnard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:5494% → 99%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
94.0%
(06:30) Shotgun #21 J.Thomas rush left for 9 yards gain to the SDSU10 (#27 M.Lindsay), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+3
94.5%
(05:56) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush right for 3 yards gain to the SDSU07 (#29 J.Hunter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
94.6%
(05:15) Shotgun #21 J.Thomas rush right for 6 yards gain to the SDSU01 (#20 J.McLaughlin)Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
(04:32) Shotgun #21 J.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:31 #15 M.Bhaghani kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Barry, LS: #44 G.Cereghino)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:012% → 8%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
97.6%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete short left to #3 N.Acevedo thrown to SDSU37 broken up by #32 D.Barksdale PENALTY UCLA Roughing The Passer (#20 S.Taylor) 15 yards from SDSU35 to SDSU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
50
+7
97.5%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCLA43 (#21 D.Lovett; #97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-1
97.4%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UCLA44 (#15 S.West; #97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+15
97.7%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass incomplete deep left to #85 J.Lowe thrown to UCLA14 broken up by #1 S.Jackson PENALTY UCLA Pass Interference (#1 S.Jackson) 15 yards from UCLA44 to UCLA29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
97.2%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush right for 9 yards gain to the UCLA20 (#4 C.Martin), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+1
97.2%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 J.Kinnard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCLA19 (#15 S.West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
92.0%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass complete short right to #15 J.Ford caught at UCLA00, for 19 yards to the UCLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:28, 1ST DOWN #96 C.DiLeva kick attempt good (H: #89 T.Dorje, LS: #64 C.Poulson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:0596% → 99%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
96.0%
(02:22) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SDSU36 (#42 C.Cooper; #24 J.Cox)Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+36
98.8%
(02:18) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 36 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:16, 1ST DOWN #15 M.Bhaghani kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Barry, LS: #44 G.Cereghino)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:252% → 1%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.2%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 J.Thomas rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SDSU40 (#25 T.Hendrick; #97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
98.4%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 J.Thomas rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDSU42 (#24 C.Cogshell)Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
98.5%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 J.Thomas rush middle for 0 yards to the SDSU42 (#25 T.Hendrick; #39 A.Sacca)Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
99.3%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 D.Trudeau pass incomplete deep left to #16 W.Cianfrini thrown to UCLA29, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.3%
(00:30) Kneel down by #10 M.Iamaleava at SDSU43 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:17
(07:17) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush right for 7 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:17 #15 M.Bhaghani kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Barry, LS: #44 G.Cereghino)
+12.1
TD · Q3 11:17
(11:20) Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17, 1ST DOWN #15 M.Bhaghani kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Barry, LS: #44 G.Cereghino)
+9.4
FG · Q4 13:11
(13:15) #96 C.DiLeva field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #89 T.Dorje, LS: #64 C.Poulson), clock 13:11
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com