San Diego State

Profile vs. FBS, 2018

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0730th
  Defense+0.0567th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.0%14th
  Defense39.0%82nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2567th
  Defense+1.2149th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0215th
  Defense−0.0792nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2262nd
  Defense+0.1940th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense43.1%14th
  Defense42.4%88th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.3%42nd
  Defense32.3%55th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7325th
  Defense2.3598th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense22.8%17th
  Defense19.9%54th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.9%22nd
  Defense15.8%41st

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2018

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San Diego State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   STAN
2. W
   SAC
3. W
   ASU
4. W
   EMU
5. W
   BOIS
6. W
   AF
7. W
   SJSU
8. L
   NEV
9. W
   UNM
10. L
    UNLV
11. L
    FRES
12. L
    HAW
13. L
    OHIO

Bars above the line: better than expected for San Diego State.

Players, 2018

1. Ryan AgnewQB262 plays · +0.211 pts/play · 81st of 225 QBs
   1.03WAR0.68 to 1.50
2. Juwan WashingtonRB201 plays · +0.155 pts/play · 41st of 351 RBs
   0.58WAR0.40 to 0.75
3. Chase JasminRB138 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 77th of 351 RBs
   0.43WAR0.33 to 0.51
4. Christian ChapmanQB106 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 162nd of 225 QBs
   0.34WAR0.18 to 0.50
5. John Baron IIPK21 plays · +0.436 pts/play · 7th of 112 kickers
   0.17WAR0.12 to 0.23
6. Fred TrevillionWR35 plays · +0.200 pts/play · 124th of 434 WRs
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.18
7. Tim Wilson Jr.WR31 plays · +0.140 pts/play · 234th of 434 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.12
8. Kahale WarringTE48 plays · +0.080 pts/play · 17th of 204 TEs
   0.07WAR−0.01 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San Diego State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2018

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  47347379th of 130Roster talent: 473, 79th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15315375th of 130Recruiting: 153, 75th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  46%46%97th of 129Returning production: 46%, 97th of 129 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +6.0+6.047th of 130SP+ rating: +6.0, 47th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San Diego State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.19 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at NEVQ4 5:07 4th & 7 at NEV 41, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.3 pts
2. vs SACQ4 5:59 4th & 9 at SAC 38, down 1Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.9 pts
3. vs HAWQ2 5:01 4th & 1 at SDSU 39, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. vs ASUQ4 11:34 4th & 4 at ASU 19, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. vs SJSUQ4 0:51 4th & 2 at SDSU 44, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at UNMQ3 12:09 4th & 3 at SDSU 46, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs EMUQ3 3:57 4th & 2 at SDSU 35, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at OHIOQ2 6:16 4th & 1 at SDSU 32, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2018

95th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San Diego State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   STAN
2. W

   SAC
3. W

   ASU
4. W

   EMU
5. W

   BOIS
6. W

   AF
7. W

   SJSU
8. L

   NEV
9. W

   UNM
10. L

    UNLV
11. L

    FRES
12. L

    HAW
13. L

    OHIO

What moved it, 2018

Every game starts at San Diego State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.13
• Possession & field position+0.12
• Clock+0.21
• Timeouts−0.35
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.85

Game by game

• STANL 10-31 at STAN15% → 0%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −19
• SACW 28-14 vs SAC95% → 98%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +10
• ASUW 28-21 vs ASU32% → 92%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +33, Possession & field position +2
• EMUW 23-20 vs EMU78% → 79%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +28, Timeouts −19
• BOISW 19-13 at BOIS16% → 95%Before kickoff −34 · On the field +78: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• AFW 21-17 vs AF77% → 88%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +2
• SJSUW 16-13 vs SJSU93% → 89%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −4: Scoreboard +11, Possession & field position +1
• NEVL 24-28 at NEV49% → 18%Before kickoff −1 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −23, Possession & field position +3
• UNMW 31-23 at UNM79% → 97%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +30, Clock +2
• UNLVL 24-27 vs UNLV93% → 8%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −85: Scoreboard −48, Clock −3
• FRESL 14-23 at FRES22% → 3%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts −1
• HAWL 30-31 vs HAW89% → 41%Before kickoff +39 · On the field −48: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts −17
• OHIOL 0-27 at OHIO43% → 0%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −42, Possession & field position +1

Points of win probability, from San Diego State's side.

Closest call

TOL 14-17 SDSU (2022) - San Diego State dropped to a 13.4% win probability before pulling it out.