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UNLV

UNLV 27 at San Diego State 24

SDSU
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:56 · Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Pregame prior+29.0Home team on offense−2.7Garbage-time factor−2.0Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:35: Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +6.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:28: Juwan Washington run for 2 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:19: Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNLV win probability +19.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 3:27: Lexington Thomas run for 75 yds for a TD (Max Gilliam pass for Two-Point Conversion) — UNLV win probability +52.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:30UNLV 4th & 4 at SDSU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:59UNLV 4th & 1 at SDSU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:08UNLV 4th & 10 at SDSU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:08SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 34, down 6
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:09UNLV 4th & 18 at UNLV 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:30SDSU 4th & 23 at SDSU 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:11UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:56SDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−2.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:28SDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 2, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:55SDSU 4th & 8 at UNLV 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:55UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:51SDSU 4th & 4 at UNLV 15, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−8.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:13SDSU 4th & 8 at UNLV 42, up 5
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−1.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:13UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−5.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 13:54SDSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:35UNLV Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:28SDSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:00SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:19UNLV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.9%−0.9
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:27UNLV Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    54.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    54.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.0%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
93.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 9 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
93.0%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
93.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 54 yds, downed at the UNLV 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2FG
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:457% → 8%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
92.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+77
92.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 77 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
92.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the SDSt 4Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
92.5%
Max Gilliam pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
92.5%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Lexington ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
92.0%
Evan Pantels 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
92.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to BJ Busbee for 13 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
92.1%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
92.0%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+2
92.0%
Christian Chapman pass intercepted Dalton Baker return for 2 yds to the SDSt 35 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:519% → 10%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
91.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
91.4%
Max Gilliam pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
91.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 6 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+8
91.5%
Jamaal Neal run for 8 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
91.4%
Max Gilliam run for 4 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-4
91.4%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
91.5%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr. UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
90.2%
Evan Pantels 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.3%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
90.3%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 7 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
90.4%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
90.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
89.3%
Max Gilliam run for 1 yd to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+9
89.3%
Charles Williams run for 9 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
89.1%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
89.0%
Brandon Presley run for a loss of 10 yards to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
89.5%
Max Gilliam pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+7
89.6%
Hayes Hicken punt for 51 yds , Garrett Binkley returns for 7 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:5288% → 89%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+31
88.3%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 31 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
88.9%
BJ Busbee run for 1 yd to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+8
88.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 8 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+9
88.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 9 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
89.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 1 yd to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+10
87.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 10 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
87.8%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 13Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
89.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1912% → 18%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
88.3%
Evan Owens run for 4 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
88.3%
Jamaal Neal run for 6 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
88.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 6 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-10
87.9%
WILLIAMS,C. rush for 1 yard to the UNLV47 (THOMPSON,Tr.), PENALTY UNLV holding 10 yards to the UNLV36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
88.5%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Lexington ThomasSimilar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+16
88.7%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 16 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+46
87.8%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 46 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
15 plays · 25 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
83.3%
Ethan Dedeaux run for 2 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 0
0
83.3%
AGNEW,Ryan pass incomplete to WILSON,Tim, PENALTY SDSU personal foul off-setting, PENALTY UNLV pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+8
83.3%
Ryan Agnew run for 8 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
83.5%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+6
83.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+12
83.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 12 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
83.8%
Chance Bell run for 8 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
84.3%
Ryan Agnew run for 3 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
84.6%
WASHINGTON,J. rush for no gain to the UNLV46 (LAOLAGI,Bailey), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 20
OWN 44
0
83.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Juwan WashingtonSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 20
OWN 44
0
83.5%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Juwan WashingtonSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 20
OWN 44
-3
83.1%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Jameer Outsey for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 23
OWN 41
+3
82.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 44 yds , Tyleek Collins returns for 3 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
77.1%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 16 Lexington Thomas fumbled, forced by Tariq Thompson,Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+5
77.4%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
77.7%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+8
78.3%
Hayes Hicken punt for 49 yds , Garrett Binkley returns for 8 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
14 plays · 62 yds · 3:2878% → 84%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
77.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for 13 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.1%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
78.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 8 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
79.0%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
78.1%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
79.2%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Roger Mann and Salanoa-Alo Wily for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 17
OPP 46
+35
74.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 35 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
76.9%
Juwan Washington run for 9 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 1
OPP 2
0
76.9%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the UNLV 2Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
74.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
83.9%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:1718% → 19%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
82.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 9 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
81.3%
Max Gilliam run for no gain to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+11
81.8%
Jamaal Neal run for 11 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
81.4%
Max Gilliam sacked by Chibu Onyeukwu and Noble Hall for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
82.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 3 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
82.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 6 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
82.2%
Max Gilliam pass intercepted Trenton Thompson return for 1 yd to the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2085% → 82%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
84.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 5 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
84.6%
Juwan Washington run for 6 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
84.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 15 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
84.9%
WASHINGTON,J. rush for 5 yards to the UNLV14 (LAOLAGI,Bailey), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the UNLV29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
84.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+6
84.1%
Ryan Agnew run for 6 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 14
OPP 23
+6
83.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 6 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
81.5%
John Baron II 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.2%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
80.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
80.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
79.7%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 2 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+1
79.7%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-5
80.3%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+1
81.2%
Max Gilliam run for 1 yd to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+3
81.7%
Hayes Hicken punt for 39 yds , Garrett Binkley returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:4879% → 82%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+46
79.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 46 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
82.4%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+1
82.4%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the UNLV 15Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
81.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete, broken up by Bailey LaolagiSimilar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
82.3%
John Baron II 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0020% → 23%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
79.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
79.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
79.7%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
78.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 7 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
77.8%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
77.2%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43 Charles Williams fumbled, forced by Troy Cassidy, recovered by SDSt Parker BaldwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:2783% → 92%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
82.7%
Juwan Washington run for 27 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
84.2%
WASHINGTON,J. rush for loss of 4 yards to the UNLV34 (GIBBS,D.), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the UNLV40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 20
OPP 40
0
82.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+6
82.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 6 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+34
91.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4110% → 32%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
89.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
89.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
89.7%
GILLIAM,Max pass incomplete to PRESLEY,Brandon, PENALTY SDSU roughing passer 15 yards to the SDSU49, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
88.4%
Max Gilliam run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
50
-10
88.9%
GILLIAM,Max rush for 5 yards to the SDSU45, PENALTY UNLV holding 10 yards to the UNLV40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 40
+1
90.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 1 yd to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+25
90.8%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 25 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
87.7%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 10 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
87.4%
Max Gilliam run for 7 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+5
87.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
87.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
67.7%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:5982% → 87%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
82.0%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+10
81.8%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Kolo Uasike for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (16 Yards) to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
83.5%
Juwan Washington run for 7 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+5
84.3%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
84.4%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
83.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Tim Wilson Jr., broken up by Evan AustrieSimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+3
87.4%
Ryan Agnew run for 3 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
86.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Lexington Thomas at the UNLV 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 1:5323% → 76%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
77.4%
Jamaal Neal run for 1 yd to the UNLV 9Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+10
77.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 10 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
76.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 6 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+75
24.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 75 yds for a TD (Max Gilliam pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22INT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0038% → 42%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
37.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 9 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+2
40.9%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
39.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 8 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
43.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Tim Wilson Jr., broken up by Evan AustrieSimilar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
41.5%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
42.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe Smith, broken up by Jocquez KaliliSimilar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
41.9%
Ryan Agnew pass intercepted Jericho Flowers return for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 1:1087% → 93%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
12.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
11.1%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-10
9.0%
THOMAS,L. rush for 61 yards to the SDSU0, clock 00:59, PENALTY UNLV holding 10 yards to the UNLV29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+5
11.0%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 5 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+1
7.5%
Hayes Hicken punt for 35 yds , Garrett Binkley returns for 1 yd to the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:27
Lexington Thomas run for 75 yds for a TD (Max Gilliam pass for Two-Point Conversion)
-52
TD · Q4 9:19
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-19.7
TD · Q2 0:28
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com