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SDSU

San Diego State 14 at Fresno State 23

FRES
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:06 · Brandon Heicklen punt for 26 yds, downed at the SDSt 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+23.6Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score differential−0.8Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:29: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 70 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:51: Timeout FRESNO ST, clock 03:51 — SDSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:56: Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +8.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:34: Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the SDSt 1 — FRES win probability +3.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:40: Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller PAT BLOCKED) — FRES win probability +9.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 14:52SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:40FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:21FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:06SDSU 4th & 16 at SDSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 13 at SDSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:21SDSU 4th & 5 at FRES 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:47FRES 4th & 6 at SDSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:51FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:18SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:02FRES 4th & 4 at SDSU 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:50SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 24, down 3
    Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:18FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:16SDSU 4th & 5 at FRES 30, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:33SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 15, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:51FRES 4th & 5 at SDSU 23, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−4.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:11SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:08FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:21SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:29SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:56FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:40FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
78.3%
Juwan Washington run for 8 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
78.3%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
78.3%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
78.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 55 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for no gain to the FrsSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
3 plays · 94 yds · 1:1178% → 78%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
77.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+8
77.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 8 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+86
78.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 86 yds for a TD SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:0722% → 22%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
78.3%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+4
78.4%
Christian Chapman run for 4 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+11
78.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 11 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
78.2%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
78.3%
Christian Chapman run for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
78.0%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
78.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
78.7%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-2
78.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+6
78.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 6 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
78.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
76.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 75 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
76.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 7 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
76.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
76.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
76.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
76.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
75.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 21Similar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
75.5%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 21Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
75.5%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 15
OWN 21
-1
75.8%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
76.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 26 yds, downed at the SDSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:4677% → 75%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
76.5%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
76.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+2
76.4%
Marcus McMaryion run for 2 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
76.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
76.5%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Chibu Onyeukwu for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
-2
75.7%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Chibu Onyeukwu for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 39
+10
74.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 25 yds FRESNO ST Penalty, kick catching interference (Mike Bell) to the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
73.6%
BJ Busbee run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
73.4%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+34
73.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 34 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
72.0%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Kahale WarringSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
72.0%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
72.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
73.2%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:1274% → 75%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
74.4%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+4
75.0%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
74.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 5 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
75.5%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
75.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
50
+38
75.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 38 yds to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
76.2%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
74.6%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
73.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Trenton ThompsonSimilar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
74.6%
Asa Fuller 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
65.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 70 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3266% → 64%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
66.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+16
65.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
66.5%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Kyahva Tezino for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+4
66.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+8
62.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 8 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
64.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 55 yds, downed at the SDSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4937% → 36%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
62.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-1 Yards) to the SDSt 2Similar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+4
62.6%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+1
62.9%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 7Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
62.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 6
OWN 7
+1
63.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 49 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 1 yd to the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
62.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
61.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
63.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Ron SmithSimilar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
61.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 44 yds, downed at the SDSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
61.5%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 6Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+4
61.8%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0462% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
62.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
63.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
64.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
64.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+32
65.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 32 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
67.1%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, KeeSea, PENALTY SDSU pass interference (SMITH,Ron) 15 yards to the SDSU3, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
67.1%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
72.4%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+2
72.0%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
72.8%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to BJ Busbee, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
74.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 42 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for no gain to the FrsSt 25 Ronnie Rivers fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Ronnie RiversSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
75.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
73.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Kyahva TezinoSimilar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
72.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19MISSED FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 5:4628% → 28%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
71.7%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+15
71.9%
CHAPMAN,C. pass incomplete to DEDEAUX,Ethan, PENALTY FS roughing passer (IAKOPO, Keiti) 15 yards to the SDSU40, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
69.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 6 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
68.8%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
69.0%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
68.2%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
68.3%
Christian Chapman run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
67.1%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
67.0%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
70.4%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
72.5%
John Baron II 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:3673% → 90%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Derrion GrimSimilar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
72.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 6 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+13
73.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
75.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+7
76.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
76.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
77.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-10
79.0%
RIVERS, Ronnie rush for 30 yards to the SDSU0, clock 13:34, PENALTY FS holding (CRUZ, Alex) 10 yards to the SDSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+37
76.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 37 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.8%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.8%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
90.3%
Ethan Dedeaux run for 1 yd to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+4
90.4%
Ryan Agnew run for 4 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
90.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale Warring, broken up by James BaileySimilar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
91.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 5:0390% → 94%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
89.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
90.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
89.9%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
90.0%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
89.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, offside defense (Noble Hall) to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
90.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
90.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+1
94.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 1 yd to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
93.8%
Asa Fuller 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:406% → 4%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
93.6%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+6
93.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 6 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+10
93.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 10 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
92.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
93.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Ethan DedeauxSimilar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
93.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+6
94.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for 6 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 9
OWN 38
-6
96.0%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24Uncategorized
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
96.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
96.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
96.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:29
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 70 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q4 12:40
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller PAT BLOCKED)
+9
TD · Q3 10:56
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com