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SDSU

San Diego State 24 at Nevada 28

NEV
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:07 · Brandon Heicklen punt for 37 yds, downed at the Nevad 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout marginPregame prior
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense+5.7Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score differential+0.6Blowout margin+1.1Pregame prior+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:41: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 16 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +5.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:50: Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 26 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed PAT MISSED) — NEV win probability +5.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:31: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 30 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:39: Devonte Lee run for 2 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +11.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. FG · Q3 5:13: Ramiz Ahmed 32 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +8.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 12 of 12SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:16NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:41NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 28, up 5
    Close callPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:12NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 33, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:39SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 13, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:19SDSU 4th & 8 at NEV 9, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:19NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:31NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:39SDSU 4th & 21 at SDSU 14, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−7.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:49NEV 4th & 3 at SDSU 29, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−1.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−11.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:13NEV 4th & 5 at SDSU 15, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−14.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:09SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−2.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:19NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−3.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:11SDSU 4th & 8 at NEV 43, down 1
    Close callPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−2.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:01NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−2.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:54NEV 4th & 10 at SDSU 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−2.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−14.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:07SDSU 4th & 7 at NEV 41, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−2.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%−4.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:34NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−2.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:42SDSU 4th & 10 at NEV 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−3.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:08NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:16SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:41SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:09NEV Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:50NEV Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:31SDSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:39NEV Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4449% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
51.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 30 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
51.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
51.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+6
51.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 6 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
51.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
51.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
51.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 12 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
51.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
51.2%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the Nevad 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
51.2%
Fred Trevillion run for 11 yds to the Nevad 20 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+8
51.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 8 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 2 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.9%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
49.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 7 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
49.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
49.8%
Quinton Conaway punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:4551% → 57%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
49.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 10 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
49.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
49.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+29
49.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for 29 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
48.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the Nevad 35Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+14
48.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 14 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
48.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
43.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 16 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
45.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 17 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
45.8%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 42Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
45.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Ron SmithSimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
45.3%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 42Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
45.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 56 yds, downed at the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5SF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4457% → 55%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
42.8%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 3Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
44.7%
AGNEW, Ryan pass incomplete to TREVILLION, F., PENALTY SDSU holding (DIXON, Daishawn) 3 yards to the SDSU0, NO PLAY, TEAM safety, clock 02:12. for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:0346% → 51%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
50
0
46.0%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 10
50
+8
45.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 8 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+17
46.0%
Ty Gangi run for 17 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
46.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Trae Carter-WellsSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-15
46.6%
GANGI, Ty rush for 8 yards to the SDSU17 (THOMPSON, Tr.), PENALTY NEVADA illegal block (79) 15 yards to the SDSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 25
OPP 40
+40
50.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 40 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0550% → 49%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
49.9%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
50.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jordan ByrdSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+9
50.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 9 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
50.8%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by McLane Mannix at the Nevad 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
49.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 10 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
49.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 4 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-3
50.5%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
49.0%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
48.6%
Quinton Conaway punt for 56 yds, downed at the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4750% → 49%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
49.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
49.9%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
50.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Fred Trevillion, broken up by Jomon DotsonSimilar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+11
50.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 51 yds , McLane Mannix returns for 11 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:2852% → 59%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
51.8%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 7
50
+5
52.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 5 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+18
52.0%
Devonte Lee run for 18 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
53.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
53.3%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+26
58.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 26 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 4:2744% → 50%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
55.7%
Chance Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
54.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isiah Macklin for 18 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
53.3%
BJ Busbee run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
54.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Tim Wilson Jr., broken up by Daniel BrownSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+15
55.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for 15 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
52.3%
Chance Bell run for 9 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+11
52.0%
Chance Bell run for 11 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
52.0%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
52.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
53.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
49.8%
John Baron II 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
53.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
51.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 38 yds, downed at the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:1451% → 65%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
49.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for 14 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
47.4%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+15
47.5%
AGNEW, Ryan pass incomplete to SMITH, Kobe, PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (SEWELL, Nephi) 15 yards to the NEVADA30, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
34.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 30 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Ronley LakalakaSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
38.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
37.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kelton MooreSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
37.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 45 yds, downed at the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:1762% → 63%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
37.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 6 yds to the SDSt 36 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal block (Daishawn Dixon) to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 19
OWN 21
+7
38.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 7 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+13
37.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 13 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
35.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
36.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+12
36.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 12 yds to the Nevad 47 Chase Jasmin fumbled, forced by Jomon Dotson, recovered by Nevad Sam HammondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
38.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange, broken up by Ron SmithSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
38.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Parker BaldwinSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+15
37.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 15 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2138% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
37.9%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+32
37.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 32 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
40.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 23 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
41.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 10 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
41.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
41.8%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the SDSt 2Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.7%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.3%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.5%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
48.6%
AGNEW, Ryan pass complete to BELL, Chance for 14 yards to the SDSU44 (SEWELL, Gabe), PENALTY SDSU illegal formation 5 yards to the SDSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-11
49.7%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 11 yards to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+21
51.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 43 yds , McLane Mannix returns for 21 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 4:3654% → 62%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
54.2%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+1
52.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 1 yd to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+9
51.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 9 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+9
51.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 9 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
55.6%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+1
55.6%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-2
53.8%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 15Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
61.9%
Ramiz Ahmed 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
59.4%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
59.7%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+16
60.1%
Chance Bell run for 16 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
56.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Chad Woolsey, broken up by Gabriel SewellSimilar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
57.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
58.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Tim Wilson Jr.Similar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
60.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 55 yds, downed at the Nevad 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+10
59.9%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to MANNIX, McLane, PENALTY SDSU holding (THOMPSON, Tr.) 10 yards to the NEVADA14, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
60.3%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
60.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
58.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
57.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:1444% → 40%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
56.3%
Chance Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
55.3%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
55.5%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
55.0%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
55.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Chad WoolseySimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
56.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Chance BellSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
60.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by McLane Mannix at the Nevad 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
62.7%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
62.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 6 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+2
61.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
62.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 10 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
62.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
62.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by Parker BaldwinSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
60.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 49 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 17 Jordan Byrd fumbled, recovered by Nevad Jomon DotsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3371% → 73%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
70.5%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
70.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-1
68.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Devonte Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
73.1%
Ramiz Ahmed 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:4729% → 29%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
70.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 18 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
68.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+9
66.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 9 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
65.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-10
65.1%
AGNEW, Ryan pass incomplete to HOUSTON, Parker, PENALTY SDSU holding (POPE, Ryan) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 16
50
-10
68.9%
AGNEW, Ryan pass complete to JASMIN, Chase for 2 yards to the NEVADA48 (ADAMS, Kyle;HAMMOND, Sam), PENALTY SDSU holding (POPE, Ryan) 10 yards to the SDSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 26
OWN 40
+7
70.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for 7 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 19
OWN 47
+12
71.0%
Ryan Agnew run for 12 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
71.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 37 yds, downed at the Nevad 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2483% → 82%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
83.1%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+1
82.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 1 yd to the Nevad 9Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 5
OWN 9
0
83.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for no gain to the Nevad 9Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 5
OWN 9
+5
82.4%
Quinton Conaway punt for 52 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 5 yds to the Nevad 14 NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Justin Brent) to the Nevad 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 25%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
69.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale WarringSimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
69.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
72.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale WarringSimilar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
74.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale Warring, broken up by Daniel BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:5989% → 93%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
89.2%
Ty Gangi run for 5 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
90.9%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 1
50
-6
92.5%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
92.8%
Quinton Conaway punt for 55 yds, downed at the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 29Uncategorized
6 plays · 59 yds · 0:0010% → 18%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+25
90.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 10 yds to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, roughing passer (Gabriel Sewell) to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
89.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 14 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
88.1%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 6 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+19
87.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isiah Macklin for 19 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
81.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.2
TD · Q2 1:31
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 30 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q3 11:39
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com