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SDSU

San Diego State 19 at Boise State 13

BOIS
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:48 · Brandon Heicklen punt for 46 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 2 yds to the BoiSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior+29.8Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:36: Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:10: Jordan Byrd run for 72 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SDSU win probability +23.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:05: Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Joel Velazquez PAT MISSED) — BOIS win probability +19.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:05: Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SDSt 35 — SDSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:39: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 35 — SDSU win probability +12.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 12SDSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:35BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:48SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:14SDSU 4th & 5 at BOIS 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:14BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:48SDSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:19BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 41, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:09SDSU 4th & 24 at BOIS 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:09BOIS 4th & 10 at SDSU 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    77.0%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:05SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:36BOIS 4th & 1 at SDSU 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−2.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:37BOIS 4th & 24 at SDSU 45, down 6
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00BOIS 4th & 9 at SDSU 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:58SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−3.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:09BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:37SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.1%−3.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:31BOIS 4th & 8 at SDSU 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−2.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:01SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 5, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−2.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00BOIS 4th & 6 at SDSU 41, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%−2.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−1.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:10BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 40, down 12
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:40SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 24, up 12
    Close callPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:09SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 40, up 6
    Close callPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%−0.7
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:59BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:48BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:36SDSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:10SDSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    82.6%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.3%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:05BOIS Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    16.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
83.7%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
83.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
83.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 48 yds, downed at the BoiSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
83.3%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
83.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
83.2%
Quinn Skillin punt for 42 yds, downed at the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
83.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 13 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
83.0%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+2
83.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 2 yds to the SDSt 45 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+1
83.0%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
83.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 27 yds, downed at the BoiSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
82.5%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Darren Hall return for 9 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2918% → 18%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
82.0%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
82.0%
Zidane Thomas run for no gain to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
82.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
81.7%
John Baron II 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
81.7%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
81.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 4 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
81.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
81.4%
Quinn Skillin punt for 56 yds , Ethan Dedeaux returns for no gain to the SDSt 4 Ethan Dedeaux fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Riley WhimpeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0682% → 82%
Q1 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
81.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.9%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Joel Velazquez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
81.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 30 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
81.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-5
81.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Keith Ismael) to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+3
81.6%
Ryan Agnew run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-5
81.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Daishawn Dixon) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 15
50
-4
81.8%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Matt Locher for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 19
OWN 46
+2
82.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 46 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 2 yds to the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
81.3%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
81.2%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Tariq Thompson return for no gain to the SDSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
80.3%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
80.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 2 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+14
80.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 14 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
80.2%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+33
80.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for 18 yds BJ Busbee fumbled, forced by Chase Hatada, recovered by BoiSt Tyler Horton for a 1ST down , return for 10 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
80.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Octavius Evans for 1 yd to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+1
80.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chase Blakley for 1 yd to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
80.5%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 8
OWN 41
-10
80.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the BoiSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5122% → 21%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
78.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 24 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
78.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
77.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 1 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Parker Houston) to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
78.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale WarringSimilar
Q2 13:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
-8
79.9%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 24
+41
79.4%
John Baron II 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
79.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 9 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
79.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
80.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 1
50
+4
80.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
80.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
80.2%
Chase Cord run for no gain to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
79.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean Modster, broken up by Tayler HawkinsSimilar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
78.8%
Quinn Skillin punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:4022% → 21%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
77.8%
Ryan Agnew run for 4 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+1
77.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+6
78.3%
Ryan Agnew run for 6 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
77.7%
Ryan Agnew run for 1 yd to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale Warring, broken up by Avery WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-5
78.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
78.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+62
79.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 48 yds BOISE ST Penalty, illegal block (14 Yards) to the BoiSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
79.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+3
79.2%
John Hightower run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+7
78.8%
Chase Cord pass intercepted Ronley Lakalaka return for 7 yds to the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:5226% → 37%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
74.0%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+13
74.0%
AGNEW, Ryan pass incomplete to WILSON, Tim (HORTON, Tyler), PENALTY BSU pass interference (HORTON, Tyler) 13 yards to the BSU2, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
14 plays · 29 yds · 3:5968% → 61%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
67.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 1 yd to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+14
67.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 14 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
68.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 15 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
69.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
69.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
69.7%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
68.9%
Brett Rypien run for 4 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
71.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (Andres Preciado) to the SDSt 36Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
68.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-9
68.5%
Brett Rypien sacked by Darren Hall for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 45 Brett Rypien fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Brett Rypien , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 24
OPP 45
0
62.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 24
OPP 45
0
60.9%
Quinn Skillin punt for 34 yds, downed at the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
61.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 8 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
64.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
64.8%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
63.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
50
+2
65.3%
Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
65.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
65.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
64.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
62.5%
Quinn Skillin punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kobe Smith at the SDSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
57.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 9 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+5
56.0%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
56.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-7
56.5%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Durrant Miles for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
58.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+58
59.8%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 16 , Khalil Shakir returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
57.1%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+2
56.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 2 yds to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+13
55.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 13 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
57.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
57.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-7
58.3%
Brett Rypien sacked by Damon Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
54.7%
Quinn Skillin punt for 33 yds, downed at the SDSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0253% → 55%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
47.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
46.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-5
45.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Parker Houston) to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+8
46.5%
Ryan Agnew run for 8 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
44.8%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SDSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 48%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
53.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John Hightower, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-7
52.5%
Brett Rypien sacked by Kyahva Tezino for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+9
47.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 9 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
48.3%
Quinn Skillin punt for 44 yds, downed at the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
43.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
44.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 5
OWN 6
-1
45.3%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 5Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+3
46.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 44 , Khalil Shakir returns for 3 yds to the BoiSt 8 BOISE ST Penalty, illegal block (Akilian Butler) to the BoiSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
48.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
50.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
50.2%
Chase Cord run for 6 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-10
50.3%
MATTISON, Alex rush up middle for 2 yards to the SDSU37 (CASSIDY, Troy;BALDWIN, Parker), PENALTY BSU holding (QUEVEDO, Eric) 10 yards to the SDSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+8
47.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 8 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
49.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
46.1%
Quinn Skillin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kobe Smith at the SDSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 2:5761% → 87%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
38.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 6Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+14
39.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 14 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
38.0%
Zidane Thomas run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
36.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 4 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+72
13.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 72 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.8%
Chase Cord pass complete to CT Thomas for 8 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
18.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
18.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
18.2%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to Sean Modster, broken up by Luq BarcooSimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
18.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
18.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chase BlakleySimilar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
17.9%
Quinn Skillin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kobe Smith at the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
9.8%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-1
10.1%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 11
OWN 16
-5
10.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Ryan Pope) to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+13
10.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 13 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+1
10.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 50 yds , Avery Williams returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 29TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:029% → 34%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
9.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 7 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+8
10.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 8 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
10.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
10.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
10.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 8 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
11.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
10.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 13 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
13.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
13.7%
Brett Rypien run for 10 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
14.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 23 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Joel Velazquez PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:5686% → 89%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
13.8%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
14.0%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Riley Whimpey for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+8
11.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 8 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+11
11.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 38 yds , Avery Williams returns for 11 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
18.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 8 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-7
21.4%
Brett Rypien sacked by TEAM for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 34 BOISE ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Brett Rypien) to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
17.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
17.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-1
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 12
OPP 36
-1
5.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:10
Jordan Byrd run for 72 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-23.4
TD · Q4 3:05
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Joel Velazquez PAT MISSED)
+19.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:39
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 35
-12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com