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AF

Air Force 17 at San Diego State 21

SDSU
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2018 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:11 · Brandon Heicklen punt for 54 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 4 yds to the AFA 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore differential
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+25.0Home team on offense+1.0Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin−0.1Score differential+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. PUNT · Q2 0:08: Charlie Scott punt blocked by Kaelin Himphill blocked by Kaelin Himphill Trenton Thompson return for 19 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:25: Ronald Cleveland run for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Sanders pass to Ronald Cleveland for Two-Point Conversion) — AF win probability +39.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:18: Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 7 — SDSU win probability +13.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 6:10: Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 29 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +29.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:44: Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the AFA 41 — SDSU win probability +10.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:49AF 4th & 12 at SDSU 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    22.4%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:11SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04AF 4th & 2 at AF 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:52SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:00AF 4th & 7 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:35SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:28AF 4th & 6 at SDSU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.3
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:48AF 4th & 8 at SDSU 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:29SDSU 4th & 10 at AF 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:08AF 4th & 1 at AF 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 10 at AF 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:40SDSU 4th & 9 at AF 43, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:50AF 4th & 6 at AF 8, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:50SDSU 4th & 9 at AF 41, up 5
    Close callPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 4 at SDSU 40, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−3.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:09SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 3, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−7.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:10AF 4th & 25 at AF 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:48SDSU 4th & 21 at SDSU 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−7.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:49SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:13AF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:25AF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    49.2%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    50.5%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:10SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:1178% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
77.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 6 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+55
77.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 55 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
77.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 27 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
77.4%
Cole Fagan run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+1
77.4%
Ronald Cleveland run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+11
77.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 11 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
77.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
77.4%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-14
77.4%
Andrew Smith run for 1 yd to the SDSt 25 AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+4
77.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
77.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 26 yds , Kobe Smith returns for no gain to the SDSt 10 Kobe Smith fumbled, recovered by SDSt Kobe SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
77.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+11
77.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 11 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
77.7%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 12
OWN 20
0
77.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 12
OWN 20
0
77.5%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+4
77.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 54 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
77.5%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+8
77.7%
Cole Fagan run for 8 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
77.4%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+2
77.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 39 yds , Kobe Smith returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 40 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (12 Yards) to the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
77.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
77.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
77.5%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
77.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
77.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
77.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 7
50
0
77.2%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete, broken up by Ronley LakalakaSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 7
50
0
77.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 44 yds, downed at the SDSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
77.7%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 5Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 11
OWN 5
-1
77.7%
Ryan Agnew run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 4Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 12
OWN 4
+2
77.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
77.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.3%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
76.3%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
76.5%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Kade Waguespack, broken up by Kyahva TezinoSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
76.9%
Charlie Scott punt for 30 yds, downed at the SDSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9SF
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:3178% → 75%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
77.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 6
OWN 11
-11
74.8%
Ryan Agnew sacked by TEAM for a loss of 11 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10MISSED FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1227% → 26%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
73.3%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-1
73.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
73.9%
Andrew Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:48
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
74.4%
Jake Koehnke 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:1175% → 77%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
74.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 8 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
74.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 24 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
75.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+11
75.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 11 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
76.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 6 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
76.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
76.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
76.9%
Ryan Agnew pass intercepted, touchback. Jeremy Fejedelem return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:1726% → 38%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
74.5%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the AFA 24 AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 18
OWN 12
+7
74.6%
Joseph Saucier run for 7 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
74.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+42
74.2%
Cole Fagan run for 42 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
71.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+7
72.0%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 7 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+4
72.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
71.7%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
71.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SDSt 13Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+1
71.7%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
62.4%
Ronald Cleveland run for 12 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:3768% → 66%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+28
67.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 28 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
70.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+15
70.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 15 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
71.2%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
71.1%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
70.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
66.2%
John Baron II 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT TD
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2136% → 22%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
63.8%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
63.7%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
63.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+19
77.9%
Charlie Scott punt blocked by Kaelin Himphill blocked by Kaelin Himphill Trenton Thompson return for 19 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
77.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
76.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
77.0%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
76.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 7 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+3
75.1%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
75.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
76.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Kade WaguespackSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+3
77.3%
Joseph Saucier run for 3 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
77.9%
Jake Koehnke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
76.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 7 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+20
76.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 20 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
78.0%
Chase Jasmin run for 7 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+5
78.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
78.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
78.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Tim Wilson Jr.Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
77.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
76.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 39 yds, downed at the AFA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
78.0%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+1
78.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for 1 yd to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+1
79.0%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 1 yd to the AFA 8Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
79.6%
Jake Koehnke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 76%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
79.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale WarringSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
78.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
78.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
76.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 36 yds, downed at the AFA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:5622% → 24%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
78.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+5
78.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+2
78.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
77.5%
SANDERS, Isaiah pass incomplete to MATKOVICH, Jake, PENALTY SDSU roughing passer 15 yards to the AF31, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
76.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+2
74.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 2 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
75.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+7
74.5%
Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
74.1%
Joseph Saucier run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+3
75.1%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+4
74.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
75.7%
Jake Koehnke punt for 34 yds, downed at the SDSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
75.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the SDSt 3Similar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 13
OWN 3
-2
75.7%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 15
OWN 1
+2
75.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 13
OWN 3
0
74.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Tim Wilson Jr.Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 13
OWN 3
0
73.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:1427% → 66%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
73.5%
REMSBERG, Kadin rush for 4 yards to the SDSU36 (BALDWIN, Parker), PENALTY AF holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 20
50
0
75.8%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 20
50
+1
76.2%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for 1 yd to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 19
OPP 49
+20
77.3%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 20 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
71.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
71.8%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Joseph SaucierSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+24
73.9%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 20 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (4 Yards) to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Sanders pass to Ronald Cleveland for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 3:0846% → 85%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
45.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 7Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
45.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale Warring SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+32
43.9%
Ryan Agnew run for 32 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
48.8%
BJ Busbee run for 5 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
51.2%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+32
49.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 32 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
55.5%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+29
84.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 29 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · -15 yds · 0:0026% → 23%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
74.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the AFA 29 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 16
OWN 19
-9
75.0%
SANDERS, Isaiah rush for 9 yards to the AF28 (LAKALAKA, R.), PENALTY AF holding 9 yards to the AF10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 25
OWN 10
0
75.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for no gain to the AFA 10Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 25
OWN 10
0
75.2%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 25
OWN 10
0
76.6%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+3
77.5%
Jake Koehnke punt for 38 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:5688% → 86%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
88.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
88.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-16
88.9%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Kyle Floyd for a loss of 16 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 21
OWN 44
0
86.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
89.3%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
89.4%
Isaiah Sanders pass intercepted Parker Baldwin return for no gain to the SDSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 88%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
89.7%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+10
89.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 10 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
90.5%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 16
50
+1
88.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 15
OPP 49
-1
87.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:25
Ronald Cleveland run for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Sanders pass to Ronald Cleveland for Two-Point Conversion)
-39.8
TD · Q4 6:10
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 29 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)
+29.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:18
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 7
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com