Try the model
SJSU

San José State 13 at San Diego State 16

SDSU
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Qualcomm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+13.7SDSU 77.2%John Baron II 51 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 16 · Q4 4:36
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:36 · John Baron II 51 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior+4.7Home team on offense+10.9Garbage-time factor+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score differential+0.9Blowout margin−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:11: Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd for a TD (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:09: John Baron II 22 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:50: Malike Roberson run for 1 yd for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +20.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:36: John Baron II 51 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:45: Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 38 — SDSU win probability +20.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 24 at SDSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:56SJSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:25SJSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00SDSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    88.6%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:31SJSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:04SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 21, up 1
    Close callPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:03SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:16SDSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00SJSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:09SDSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−5.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:09SJSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−1.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−7.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:47SDSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    69.7%−1.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:36SDSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−3.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:44SJSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−4.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−11.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:51SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:11SDSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:50SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
93.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 16 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
93.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-20
93.2%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Jesse Osuna for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 36 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-13 Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 28
OWN 23
+4
93.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 27
0
93.2%
Kaegun Williams run for no gain to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 24
OWN 27
+6
93.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 44 yds , Thai Cottrell returns for 6 yds to the SJSt 23 Thai Cottrell fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:577% → 9%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
92.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Justin Holmes for 7 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 3
OWN 30
0
92.7%
Josh Love run for no gain to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+8
92.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 8 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
92.7%
Thai Cottrell run for 2 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
92.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Justin Holmes for 5 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+10
92.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 10 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
92.7%
Leki Nunn run for 6 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
92.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 5 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
92.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+8
92.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 8 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
92.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+42
91.4%
Bryce Crawford 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.5%
Kaegun Williams run for no gain to the SDSt 35 Kaegun Williams fumbled, forced by Bryson Bridges, recovered by SJSt Jesse OsunaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:259% → 10%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
91.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
91.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+8
91.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Justin Holmes for 8 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+18
91.2%
Leki Nunn pass complete to Josh Oliver for 18 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by Tayler HawkinsSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
91.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
91.3%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 2Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
91.4%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 7Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
90.2%
Bryce Crawford 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 8:1490% → 90%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
90.4%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+10
90.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for 10 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
90.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
90.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+1
90.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+9
90.6%
Ryan Agnew run for 9 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
90.8%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 37Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+23
90.6%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 23 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
90.8%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SJSt 9Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-1
90.8%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 10Similar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+4
88.2%
Ryan Agnew run for 4 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+2
87.7%
Ryan Agnew run for 2 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
88.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
88.4%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SJSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, roughing passer (2 Yards) to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 45 yds · 0:3411% → 11%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
88.6%
Thai Cottrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+19
88.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 19 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+29
88.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 29 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
87.6%
Josh Love run for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard line Josh Love fumbled, recovered by SJSt Josh Love , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 18
50
+6
88.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 6 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
88.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
88.6%
Brian Papazian punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
88.0%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 10Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+10
87.9%
Chance Bell run for 10 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
87.7%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
87.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
87.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
86.9%
Thai Cottrell run for 3 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
87.1%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
87.5%
Bryce Crawford punt for 59 yds, downed at the SDSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
17 plays · 74 yds · 6:2987% → 86%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
87.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+6
87.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+10
87.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 10 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
87.4%
Chance Bell run for 20 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
88.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 7 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+8
88.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 8 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
88.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 45Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
87.9%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SJSt 45Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 15
OPP 45
-5
87.9%
AGNEW, Ryan pass complete to WARRING, Kahale for 2 yards to the SJSU43 (HARMON, Kyle), PENALTY SDSU illegal formation 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 20
50
+8
87.7%
Ryan Agnew run for 8 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+20
87.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 20 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
88.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale Warring, broken up by Jesse OsunaSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
88.7%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
86.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
86.2%
John Baron II 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
84.3%
Josh Love sacked by Noble Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+17
84.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Justin Holmes for no gain to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
84.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
83.6%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to OLIVER, Josh (THOMPSON, Tr.), PENALTY SDSU roughing passer 15 yards to the SDSU45, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
82.3%
Malike Roberson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
82.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
82.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
83.4%
Brian Papazian punt for 30 yds, downed at the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12FG
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:3283% → 88%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+38
82.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 23 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
84.5%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 8
50
+3
84.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+17
84.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 17 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
85.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+22
85.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 22 yds to the SJSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.3%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SJSt 3Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
85.3%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 5Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kahale Warring, broken up by Jonathan Lenard Jr.Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
88.1%
John Baron II 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 6:1915% → 38%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
83.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Justin Holmes for no gain to the SJSt 42Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+10
84.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 10 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
83.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+21
83.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 21 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
82.0%
Tre Walker run for no gain to the SDSt 23Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
82.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 5 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+4
83.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 4 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+1
84.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
82.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 6 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
82.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
83.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.0%
Malike Roberson run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.0%
Malike Roberson run for 1 yd for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:0372% → 69%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
71.5%
Chance Bell run for 18 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
74.3%
Chance Bell run for 13 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
75.0%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-1
75.0%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 38Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+1
73.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SJSt 37Similar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-5
70.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
69.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 33 yds, downed at the SJSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
65.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+1
64.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 15Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+4
66.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 4 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
64.2%
Malike Roberson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+5
62.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Leki Nunn for 5 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
63.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+28
62.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 28 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
58.9%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 47 Tyler Nevens fumbled, recovered by SJSt Tyler NevensSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+2
61.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 2 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+26
63.6%
Josh Love pass intercepted Tariq Thompson return for 41 yds to the SJSt 4 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SJSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:3970% → 77%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
69.9%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
69.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 40Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 15
OPP 40
-5
65.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kahale Warring for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+11
63.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 11 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+51
77.2%
John Baron II 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 39 yds · 0:5229% → 32%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 8 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
66.3%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
70.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 10 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
67.7%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre (BARCOO, Luq), PENALTY SDSU offside 5 yards to the SJSU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 5
OWN 48
0
65.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-5
66.2%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
69.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 13 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
64.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Leki NunnSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
65.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 9 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
64.0%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-1
67.6%
Malike Roberson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5488% → 93%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
87.7%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-1
89.6%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+7
88.2%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
92.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 40 yds, downed at the SJSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
88.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
88.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Leki Nunn for 4 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+1
88.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Love for 1 yd to the SJSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:45
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 38
+20.1
TD · Q3 0:50
Malike Roberson run for 1 yd for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK)
-20
FG · Q4 4:36
John Baron II 51 yd FG GOOD
+13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com