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SDSU

San Diego State 6 at Northern Illinois 3

NIU
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:46 · Jayden Denegal pass intercepted Jasper Beeler return for no gain to the NIU 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense−6.3Score differential−4.2Pregame prior−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5Time remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:55: Gabriel Plascencia 30 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: J. Holst takes a knee — SDSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Offense has -7 timeouts left).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:46: Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 07:46 — NIU win probability +11.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:28: Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 04:28 — SDSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Gabriel Plascencia 25 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +38.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:36NIU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10NIU 4th & 5 at SDSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:25SDSU 4th & 1 at NIU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55SDSU 4th & 12 at NIU 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:28NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:19SDSU 4th & 1 at NIU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−2.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:47NIU 4th & 16 at NIU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:06SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:23NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:32SDSU 4th & 18 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:01NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:01NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:30SDSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−5.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:45SDSU 4th & 3 at NIU 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−4.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:46NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:48SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:39NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:46SDSU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%−9.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−12.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:28NIU 4th & 2 at SDSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−10.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−7.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:38SDSU 4th & 3 at NIU 49, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.3 ptsPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−5.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:44NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−3.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1FG
20 plays · 62 yds · 7:4447% → 50%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.8%
Josh Holst run for 4 yds to the NIU 29Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
46.9%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 29Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
47.0%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 12 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
47.3%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Holst,Josh pass incomplete short left to Rogers,DeAree thrown to NIU47 PENALTY NIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Appleget,Jake) 5 yards from NIU41 to NIU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+3
47.2%
Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the NIU 39Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+9
47.4%
Josh Holst run for 9 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
47.7%
Chavon Wright run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 1
50
+1
47.8%
Chavon Wright run for 1 yd to the SDSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
48.5%
Josh Holst run for 3 yds to the SDSU 46Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
48.7%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Gary GivensSimilar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+14
48.6%
Josh Holst run for 14 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
49.2%
Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+11
49.5%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the SDSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
49.5%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSU 15Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
49.7%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+2
49.4%
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the SDSU 13Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
50.1%
Andrew Glass 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2FG
17 plays · 63 yds · 7:1050% → 51%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.7%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jordan NapierSimilar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.9%
Jayden Denegal run for 3 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
50.4%
Jayden Denegal run for 12 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
49.5%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
50
+15
49.2%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden pass incomplete deep left to Bostick,Jacob thrown to NIU04 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Finley,Jacob) 15 yards from SDSU50 to NIU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
48.9%
Lucky Sutton run for 4 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
48.9%
Jordan Napier run for 3 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
49.5%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the NIU 26Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
50.2%
Lucky Sutton run for 1 yd to the NIU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
49.1%
Jordan Napier run for 16 yds to the NIU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
48.9%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Washington,Christian rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NIU10 (Maciorowski,Filip; Finley,Jacob) PENALTY SDSU Holding (Adams,Seth) 10 yards from NIU09 to NIU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
-2
49.1%
Christian Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 21Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+6
49.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jackson Ford for 6 yds to the NIU 15Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
50.9%
Jayden Denegal run for 3 yds to the NIU 12Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
49.0%
Gabriel Plascencia 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0550% → 49%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.8%
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the NIU 23 Josh Holst fumbled, recovered by NIU Jaylen Poe , return for 3 yds to the NIU 23Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
49.7%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Jaylen PoeSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+8
48.9%
Chavon Wright run for 8 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
49.2%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:0151% → 51%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
49.0%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 9 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
47.9%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the SDSU 32Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
48.2%
Christian Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
48.6%
Jayden Denegal run for 4 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
45.5%
Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
48.1%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 4 yds to the SDSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
48.0%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jacob BostickSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
48.5%
Christian Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSU 48Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
48.1%
Christian Washington run for 6 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
48.7%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the NIU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:2155% → 52%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
54.7%
Chavon Wright run for a loss of 5 yards to the NIU 41Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+4
53.3%
Josh Holst run for 4 yds to the NIU 45Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-10
52.8%
Josh Holst sacked by Ryan Henderson for a loss of 10 yards to the NIU 35Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 21
OWN 35
+5
51.2%
PENALTY SDSU Offside (Johnson,Chris) 5 yards from NIU35 to NIU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
51.6%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 47 yds , Jordan Napier returns for no gain to the SDSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:3852% → 51%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
48.4%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Mikey WelshSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+13
48.7%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 13 yds to the SDSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Mikey WelshSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.5%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
49.7%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Mikey Welsh for 8 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
48.2%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 4 yds to the SDSU 40Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
47.2%
PENALTY SDSU False Start (Ford,Jackson) 5 yards from SDSU40 to SDSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+7
49.0%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Mikey Welsh for 7 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
47.3%
Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Donovan BrownSimilar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
49.4%
Hunter Green punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 1:4153% → 52%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
53.1%
PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from NIU12 to NIU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 15
OWN 7
0
53.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 7Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+15
53.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 15 yds to the NIU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
53.4%
Chavon Wright run for 11 yds to the NIU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
53.9%
Josh Holst sacked by Owen Chambliss for a loss of 10 yards to the NIU 23Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+11
53.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 11 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+1
52.7%
Chavon Wright run for 1 yd to the NIU 35Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
52.1%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 0:4550% → 46%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
50.3%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 13 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
48.9%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Denegal,Jayden pass incomplete short left to Napier,Jordan thrown to NIU39 PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (McCuin,Deshawn) 15 yards from NIU42 to SDSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+5
51.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the SDSU 48Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 20
OWN 48
-1
51.9%
Jayden Denegal run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 47Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 21
OWN 47
+3
52.8%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 18
50
0
53.7%
Hunter Green punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
42.8%
J. Holst takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10INT
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:2851% → 53%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
49.5%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 19 yds to the SDSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-11
47.0%
Jayden Denegal pass intercepted Muhammed Jammeh return for 11 yds to the NIU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1354% → 52%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
53.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the NIU 28Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
53.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
52.9%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to George DimopoulosSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
51.9%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 42 yds , Jordan Napier returns for no gain to the SDSU 25Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
51.9%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 42 yds , Jordan Napier returns for no gain to the SDSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:2651% → 47%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.2%
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
47.6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 9 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
47.3%
Jayden Denegal sacked by Filip Maciorowski for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSU 30Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+1
50.5%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSU 31Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 19
OWN 31
0
51.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass incomplete to Donovan BrownSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 19
OWN 31
+18
52.8%
Hunter Green punt for 60 yds , DeAree Rogers returns for 18 yds to the NIU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:4554% → 56%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
53.6%
Brady Davidson pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 8 yds to the NIU 35Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
55.6%
Chavon Wright run for 1 yd to the NIU 36Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
55.1%
Chavon Wright run for 2 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
55.6%
Brady Davidson pass intercepted Chris Johnson return for 4 yds to the SDSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4454% → 52%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
45.9%
Jordan Napier run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 9
50
+8
45.8%
Christian Washington run for 8 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-2
45.1%
Christian Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 44Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
47.7%
Hunter Green punt for 34 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:4954% → 51%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
53.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the NIU 15Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
53.6%
Josh Holst run for 3 yds to the NIU 18Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+2
52.0%
Josh Holst pass complete to Jaylen Poe for 2 yds to the NIU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
53.5%
Jaylen Poe run for 2 yds to the NIU 22Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-2
53.3%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 20Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+7
51.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the NIU 27Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+1
51.2%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 20 , Jordan Napier returns for 1 yd to the SDSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5250% → 48%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
49.7%
Jordan Napier run for 2 yds to the SDSU 22Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
50.2%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass complete to Jordan Napier for 5 yds to the SDSU 27Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
49.6%
Lucky Sutton run for 1 yd to the SDSU 28Similar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
52.1%
Hunter Green punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2153% → 52%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
53.2%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the NIU 18Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+3
55.1%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
54.6%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
54.1%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+4
52.3%
Josh Holst pass complete to George Dimopoulos for 4 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
52.2%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18INT
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:4750% → 53%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
50.1%
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the SDSU 26Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
48.8%
Lucky Sutton run for 11 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
48.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 10 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
45.1%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 1 yd to the SDSU 48Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
45.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+3
45.0%
Jayden Denegal run for 3 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
44.3%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 7 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
43.6%
Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
43.7%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the NIU 34Similar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
47.2%
Jayden Denegal pass intercepted Jasper Beeler return for no gain to the NIU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:1159% → 61%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
59.0%
Lazaro Rogers run for 6 yds to the NIU 38 Northern Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (Landon Hron) to the NIU 28Similar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 14
OWN 28
+5
58.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 5 yds to the NIU 33Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
58.2%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Telly Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
55.8%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to DeAree RogersSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 9
OWN 33
-15
54.5%
(06:50) No Huddle Vuckovic,Danny rush middle for 16 yards loss to the NIU17 fumbled by Vuckovic,Danny at NIU17 recovered by NIU Vuckovic,Danny at NIU17, End Of Play PENALTY SDSU Personal Foul 15 yards from NIU33 to NIU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 48Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
62.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 48Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+8
59.3%
Josh Holst run for 8 yds to the SDSU 44Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
60.9%
Josh Holst run for no gain to the SDSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4253% → 50%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
47.5%
Jayden Denegal run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 4
50
+2
46.0%
Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-1
47.4%
Jayden Denegal run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 49Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
50.0%
Hunter Green punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:5459% → 51%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
59.3%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Tweedy,Aidan) 5 yards from NIU15 to NIU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+2
59.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the NIU 12Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 13
OWN 12
0
55.4%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Gary GivensSimilar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+7
52.8%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the NIU 19Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
51.0%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 1:3753% → 96%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
46.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 13 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
43.5%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the NIU 40Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+22
42.8%
Lucky Sutton run for 7 yds to the NIU 33 for a 1ST down Northern Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Roy Williams) to the NIU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
39.5%
Lucky Sutton run for 4 yds to the NIU 14Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
42.3%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the NIU 11Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+5
45.7%
(00:51) No Huddle Denegal,Jayden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU09 (Gulley, Jr,Alvin; Dixon,Dasean) PENALTY NIU Offside 5 yards from NIU11 to NIU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
42.2%
J. Denegal takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
4.0%
Gabriel Plascencia 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Gabriel Plascencia 25 yd FG GOOD
-38.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:28
Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 04:28
-14.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:46
Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 07:46
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com