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SDSU

San Diego State 42 at Northern Illinois 28

NIU
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:16 · Tanner Blain punt for 35 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Home team on offense−40.7Pregame prior−1.4Score differential−19.7Garbage-time factor−10.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:52: Kenny Golladay run for 12 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +10.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:46: Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 14 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +15.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Donnel Pumphrey run for 33 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:02: Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 7 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +12.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:40: Donnel Pumphrey run for 79 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19NIU 4th & 1 at SDSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09SDSU 4th & 2 at NIU 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−1.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−6.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:02NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:37SDSU 4th & 20 at NIU 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:28NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 11, down 21
    Close callPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:52SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00SDSU 4th & 21 at SDSU 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−1.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:54SDSU 4th & 7 at NIU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−5.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:54NIU 4th & 2 at SDSU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:40SDSU 4th & 20 at NIU 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−2.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:03NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:45NIU 4th & 1 at SDSU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−2.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:16SDSU 4th & 4 at NIU 38, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.8
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:06NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 29, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:06NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 48, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:19SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:08SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:09SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:19SDSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:52NIU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:03NIU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:46NIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:02NIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−0.7
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:40SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
30.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 18 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
30.4%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
30.4%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
30.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
30.4%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2INT
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
30.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 18 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
30.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
30.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+11
30.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 11 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
30.8%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-3
30.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+15
30.9%
CHAPMAN, Christ sacked for loss of 7 yards to the SDSU41 (SANDERS, Joe), PENALTY NIU unsportsmanlike conduct (SANDERS, Joe) 15 yards to the NIU37, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
30.8%
PUMPHREY, Donne rush for 1 yard to the NIU36 (ALLEN, Mycial;WYNNE, Quintin), PENALTY SDSU illegal motion 5 yards to the NIU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 15
OPP 42
-15
30.8%
CHAPMAN, Christ pass complete to JUDGE, Eric for 6 yards to the NIU36 (OLOOTU, Mayomi), PENALTY SDSU pass interference 15 yards to the SDSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 30
OWN 43
-1
30.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 31
OWN 42
+8
30.9%
Christian Chapman pass intercepted Mycial Allen return for 8 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
33.1%
HUFF, Jordan rush for 3 yards to the NIU21 (DUNN, Ryan), PENALTY NIU holding (MYERS, Levon) 9 yards to the NIU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+5
33.0%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+6
33.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Christian Blake for 6 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
32.8%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian Blake, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
32.6%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
1 play · 46 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
30.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 46 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
31.2%
Christian Blake run for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
31.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 8 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (3 Yards) to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
31.8%
Jordan Huff run for 15 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
32.0%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+6
31.8%
Anthony Maddie run for 6 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
31.9%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 1
OPP 31
-1
31.6%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
31.6%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:1669% → 74%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
30.9%
CHAPMAN, Christ pass incomplete to JUDGE, Eric, PENALTY NIU pass interference (OLOOTU, Mayomi) 15 yards to the SDSU47, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
30.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+9
30.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
30.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 4 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
30.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+4
30.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
26.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 27 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
27.3%
Ryan Graham pass intercepted for a 1ST down Damontae Kazee return for 28 yds to the NORTHERNIL 47 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (14 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4374% → 80%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
25.9%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the NoIll 13Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
25.9%
Christian Chapman run for 3 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+5
25.8%
Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+5
20.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 5 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
20.2%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-3
20.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
20.1%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+26
20.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 41 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 3 yds · 3:1581% → 77%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
18.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
18.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+7
19.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 7 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
18.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 15
OPP 43
-1
18.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 16
OPP 44
0
18.8%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 16
OPP 44
-4
22.5%
Christian Chapman run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 48 Christian Chapman fumbled, recovered by SDSt Rashaad PennySimilar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 20
OPP 48
0
22.7%
Tanner Blain punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
20.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+4
20.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+1
20.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 11Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
20.3%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 1:1481% → 88%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
19.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 9 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+3
19.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
12.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 33 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:278% → 19%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
7.5%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Jordan Huff for 9 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+10
7.5%
Aregeros Turner run for 10 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
8.1%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Derek BabiashSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
7.8%
Jordan Huff run for 9 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
7.7%
Ryan Graham run for 1 yd to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
8.1%
GOLLADAY, Kenny pass incomplete to BLAKE, Christia, PENALTY SDSU pass interference (KELLY, Kameron) 15 yards to the SDSU21, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
8.4%
Christian Blake run for 9 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+12
18.5%
Kenny Golladay run for 12 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.0%
Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
16.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
16.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
16.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+10
17.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 10 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
17.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
14.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 3Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 3
-1
13.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-14
10.8%
CHAPMAN, Christ pass complete to HOLDER, Mikah for 8 yards to the SDSU36 (ALLEN, Mycial), PENALTY SDSU pass interference (WELLS, David) 14 yards to the SDSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+3
11.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-3
11.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+12
11.6%
Tanner Blain punt for 52 yds , Shawun Lurry returns for 12 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:3113% → 19%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
13.1%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 0
+49
18.5%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 49 yds for a TD NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the SDSt 0, (Christian Hagan KICK) NORTHERNIL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18MISSED FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0084% → 83%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
16.3%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
16.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
16.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah Holder, broken up by Mayomi OlootuSimilar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
17.5%
John Baron II 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:0819% → 35%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
18.7%
Ryan Graham run for no gain to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+30
18.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Jordan Huff for 30 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
20.4%
Aregeros Turner run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+4
20.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 4 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-5
20.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+8
20.0%
Ryan Graham run for 8 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+21
19.9%
Kenny Golladay run for 7 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Noble Hall) to the SDSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
34.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 14 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
26.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
26.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+15
26.5%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Bobby Jones IV) to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
24.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the NORTHERNIL 41 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shawun Lurry) to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
24.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
24.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 7
OPP 23
-13
25.0%
Christian Chapman sacked by Bobby Jones IV for a loss of 13 yards to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 20
OPP 36
0
27.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
28.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+3
28.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+5
27.6%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros Turner, broken up by Randy Ricks for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Damontae Kazee) to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
28.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 7 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 25
-1
29.6%
Christian Blake run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
28.0%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+7
26.7%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 36 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 7 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:4477% → 90%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
23.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+3
22.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
22.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
22.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+33
9.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 33 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23TD
18 plays · 65 yds · 6:4313% → 28%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
13.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Christian Blake for 8 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+7
14.4%
Aregeros Turner run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
50
+7
14.5%
Ryan Graham run for 7 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
15.2%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
14.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
14.6%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
15.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 4 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
15.1%
Kenny Golladay run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
15.5%
Jordan Huff run for no gain to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
15.3%
Ryan Graham sacked by Alex Barrett for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+28
13.5%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 28 yds to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
15.7%
Jordan Huff run for no gain to the SDSt 12Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
15.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+6
14.8%
GOLLADAY, Kenny rush for loss of 8 yards to the SDSU20 (RICKS, Randy), PENALTY SDSU face mask (RICKS, Randy) 6 yards to the SDSU6, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
15.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
15.7%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 7Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
28.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 7 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:1781% → 94%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
19.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Nick BawdenSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+79
5.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 79 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
7.6%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Christian Blake for 5 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
7.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+10
7.9%
Ryan Graham pass intercepted Trey Lomax return for 10 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:1395% → 96%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.7%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
4.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 8 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+3
4.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
4.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
3.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+2
3.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
3.6%
Tanner Blain punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
3.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 4 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+17
3.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 17 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
3.2%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
3.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 5 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
3.2%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+19
3.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to D.J. Brown for 19 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
3.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
3.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
3.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
3.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Derek BabiashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
2.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+27
2.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 27 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
2.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 21Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-1
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 22Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 12
OPP 22
-1
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:46
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 14 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+15
TD · Q4 7:40
Donnel Pumphrey run for 79 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q4 14:54
Donnel Pumphrey run for 33 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com