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CSU

Colorado State 17 at San Diego State 29

SDSU
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+5.9SDSU 81.9%Matt Araiza 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 23 · Q2 5:48
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Q2 5:48 · Matt Araiza 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+11.2Home team on offense+10.5Garbage-time factor+2.9Score differential+5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:54: Jonathan Terry kickoff for 58 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 93 yds for a TD SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (-90 Yards) to the SDSt 7 (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:22: Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Robert Liss KICK) — CSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:48: Matt Araiza 40 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:47: Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 37 yds for a TD (Robert Liss KICK) — CSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:17: Matt Araiza 38 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13CSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:34SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:10CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:41CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:35SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:08CSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:24CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:48SDSU 4th & 10 at CSU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:40SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:09CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:11SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:01CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 39, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:53CSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:14SDSU 4th & 7 at CSU 15, up 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.0 ptsPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    74.4%
    83% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%−6.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:53CSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 10:49SDSU 4th & 23 at CSU 30, up 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.3 ptsWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%−3.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−1.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at CSU 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−3.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−14.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:21SDSU 4th & 3 at CSU 3, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.3%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−11.9
    average punt
  20. Q3 15:00CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 15, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  21. Q3 10:49CSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 34, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−3.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−4.4
    average punt
  22. Q3 4:28CSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−3.5
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−7.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 9:17SDSU 4th & 12 at CSU 21, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−5.4
    average punt
  24. Q4 9:09CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 28, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  25. Q4 6:34SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 22, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:50SDSU 4th & 1 at CSU 33, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:41SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:22CSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:47CSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
68.7%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
68.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to E.J. Scott for 2 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+1
68.7%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 30
-4
68.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 48 yds , BJ Busbee returns for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:0069% → 68%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
68.5%
Jordon Brookshire run for 2 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+4
68.5%
Jordon Brookshire run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+6
68.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 6 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
68.5%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by Scott Patchan for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
68.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to BJ Busbee, broken up by Logan StewartSimilar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
68.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+4
68.3%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 47 yds , Dante Wright returns for 4 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
68.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to A'Jon VivensSimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
68.2%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+14
68.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 14 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
67.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for no gain to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
68.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete, broken up by Caden McDonaldSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
68.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
68.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 36 yds , BJ Busbee returns for no gain to the SDSt 20 BJ Busbee fumbled, recovered by SDSt BJ BusbeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:5268% → 72%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
68.2%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
68.2%
Jordon Brookshire run for 9 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
68.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
68.2%
Jordon Brookshire run for 10 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
68.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 15 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
68.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
68.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 5 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
69.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+14
69.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Nolan Givan for 14 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
69.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 7 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
72.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.7%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
70.5%
Dante Wright run for 1 yd to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
70.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante Wright, broken up by Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
71.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
71.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 1 yd to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
71.3%
Jordon Brookshire run for 6 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+9
71.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Dominic Benson for 9 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-11
71.5%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by Scott Patchan and Ellison Hubbard for a loss of 11 yards to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 21
OWN 22
+6
71.2%
Chance Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+10
70.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 10 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
71.1%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:1129% → 30%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
71.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
50
+8
70.2%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 8 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
70.2%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 4 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
70.3%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Connor Mitchell for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 46
-1
71.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+25
71.5%
Patrick O'Brien run for 25 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
69.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 0
+1
69.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 1 yd to the SDSt 25 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 25
0
71.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+43
69.7%
Robert Liss 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3025% → 18%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.9%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
74.1%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
74.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante Wright, broken up by Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+90
81.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 58 yds , BJ Busbee returns for 90 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:5519% → 27%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
80.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 10 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
80.4%
Patrick O'Brien run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+25
81.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 25 yds to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
80.3%
Dante Wright run for 11 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.3%
Patrick O'Brien run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.9%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Robert Liss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2476% → 82%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
76.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 9 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+8
76.7%
Jordon Brookshire run for 8 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
76.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-1
76.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jordan Byrd for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
75.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Thomas PannunzioSimilar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
81.9%
Matt Araiza 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 0:5320% → 29%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+29
80.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 14 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
79.5%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+37
70.9%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 37 yds for a TD (Robert Liss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
74.3%
Jordon Brookshire run for 3 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
74.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Daniel BellingerSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+13
73.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Dominic Benson for 13 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
75.4%
Jordon Brookshire run for 5 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-2
75.6%
Jordon Brookshire run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
74.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
73.5%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
73.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
73.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete, broken up by Caden McDonaldSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 15
OWN 22
0
73.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 15
OWN 22
0
74.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to A'Jon VivensSimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
75.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 52 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:3775% → 73%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
74.6%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-7
74.1%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by Cam'ron Carter and Scott Patchan for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 19
OWN 17
+8
73.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 8 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+13
72.9%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 38 yds , Dante Wright returns for 13 yds to the ColSt 38 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ColSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
73.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to E.J. Scott for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
73.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to E.J. ScottSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
74.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
75.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
74.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
73.7%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
73.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 7 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
74.5%
Jordon Brookshire run for 1 yd to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
73.3%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0033% → 28%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
67.2%
Tanner Hollens run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 31Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-7
67.3%
Rashad Ajayi pass complete to Brian Polendey for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 18
OPP 38
-1
71.0%
Rashad Ajayi run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
72.2%
- 1b punt for a loss of 43 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
76.2%
Dezjhon Malone run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+4
76.1%
Dezjhon Malone run for 4 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
75.4%
- 1q pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 7
OPP 15
-7
73.9%
BJ Busbee punt for a loss of 58 yards , Bam Amina returns for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0033% → 28%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
67.1%
Rashad Ajayi pass incomplete to Ty McCullouchSimilar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
67.1%
Brandon Hickerson-Rooks run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
71.3%
Rashad Ajayi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
72.5%
- 1b punt for a loss of 44 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0077% → 72%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
76.5%
Rashad Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-12
76.4%
- 1q pass complete to Nolan Givan for a loss of 12 yards to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 24
OPP 31
-4
74.2%
Rashad Scott run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 28
OPP 35
+5
72.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 23
OPP 30
+4
72.3%
Rashad Scott run for 4 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 7:0775% → 86%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
75.2%
Jordon Brookshire run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+19
74.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 19 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
77.5%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 6
50
+4
77.7%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+5
76.8%
Jordon Brookshire run for 5 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
77.9%
Jordon Brookshire run for 4 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+15
77.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 15 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
78.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
78.2%
Jordon Brookshire run for 4 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+5
80.7%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+9
79.3%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
81.8%
Jordon Brookshire run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
81.8%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.6%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the ColSt 3Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
85.5%
Matt Araiza 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
75.9%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 19
-4
76.1%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 15
0
77.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 15
+7
77.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 58 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 7 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 6:2122% → 17%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+31
77.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 31 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
75.5%
Dante Wright run for 5 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
75.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
75.2%
Patrick O'Brien run for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+15
76.8%
A'Jon Vivens run for 15 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
74.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+1
74.5%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 11
OPP 20
-9
75.8%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 20
OPP 29
+47
82.8%
Robert Liss 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
85.9%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
86.1%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for no gain to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-15
87.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass intercepted Darren Hall return for 15 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5087% → 93%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
87.3%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-5
87.2%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+4
86.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
92.6%
Matt Araiza 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
92.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for no gain to the ColSt 10Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
92.1%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the ColSt 10Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+18
92.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to E.J. Scott for 18 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
91.4%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-1
91.5%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
92.1%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
92.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Leka Lotulelei at the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
94.5%
Jordon Brookshire run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 14
OWN 26
-5
94.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 19
OWN 21
+1
94.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 22Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 18
OWN 22
0
94.1%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 22Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 18
OWN 22
0
93.8%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 30INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:386% → 4%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
93.6%
Dante Wright run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+12
93.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 12 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.3%
Todd Centeio pass intercepted Tayler Hawkins return for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 31END OF GAME
9 plays · 35 yds · 1:2697% → 98%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
97.1%
Jordon Brookshire run for 3 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+20
97.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 20 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
97.3%
Jordon Brookshire run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
97.9%
Jordon Brookshire run for 6 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
98.0%
Jordon Brookshire run for no gain to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+5
97.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
98.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:47
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 37 yds for a TD (Robert Liss KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q2 8:22
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Robert Liss KICK)
-7.4
FG · Q4 9:17
Matt Araiza 38 yd FG GOOD
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com