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UNLV

UNLV 6 at San Diego State 34

SDSU
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:26 · Matt Araiza punt for 58 yds, downed at the UNLV 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Home team on offense+35.8Pregame prior+3.2Score differential+28.6Garbage-time factor+12.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.5Blowout margin+13.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:38: Chance Bell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:51: Greg Bell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:59: Carson Baker pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 9 yds to the SDSt 33 — SDSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:44: Max Gilliam pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 4 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez PAT MISSED) — UNLV win probability +2.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UNLV made the numbers' call on 12 of 15
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:25UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:17SDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:00UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:19UNLV 4th & 12 at SDSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:19SDSU 4th & 6 at UNLV 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:38UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:43UNLV 4th & 20 at UNLV 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:56SDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 10, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%−0.9
    88% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−4.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:56UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:00SDSU 4th & 4 at UNLV 4, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:56UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 48, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 14:56UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 48, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:34SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:09UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  18. Q3 7:20SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 40, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q3 5:13UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 33, down 21
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q3 3:08SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 2 at SDSU 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−2.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 4 at SDSU 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−2.3
    average punt
  23. Q4 10:52UNLV 4th & 3 at SDSU 4, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−1.6
    average punt
  24. Q4 8:25UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  25. Q4 6:26SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 37, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:06SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:38SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:51SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:44UNLV Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    3.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:25SDSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
77.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 5 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
77.9%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-7
77.9%
Carson Baker sacked by Adam Plant Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+7
77.9%
Matt Araiza punt for 53 yds , Tyleek Collins returns for 7 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+7
77.9%
Matt Araiza punt for 53 yds , Tyleek Collins returns for 7 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
77.5%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
77.5%
Tyleek Collins run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
77.5%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete, broken up by Cedarious BarfieldSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+10
77.6%
Tanner Brown punt for 46 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 10 yds to the SDSt 49 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 15Similar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
77.5%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:5077% → 78%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
77.2%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+19
77.2%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 19 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
77.4%
BELL, Greg rush for 10 yards to the UNLV48 (WINDMON,Jacoby), PENALTY SDSU illegal block 5 yards to the SDSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+12
77.2%
Carson Baker pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 12 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+32
77.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 32 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
77.1%
Carson Baker pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen GravesSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
77.1%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+3
76.9%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+3
76.7%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
77.1%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 10Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
77.1%
Chance Bell run for 6 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.4%
Carson Baker pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Tyleek Collins, broken up by Andrew AlekiSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-4
78.2%
Max Gilliam sacked by Caden McDonald and Cameron Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-2
78.4%
Tanner Brown punt for 55 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 23 Jordan Byrd fumbled, recovered by UNLV Nohl WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5MISSED FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0724% → 23%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
76.5%
Charles Williams run for 6 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 4
OPP 17
-5
76.5%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+4
76.5%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-7
76.9%
Max Gilliam sacked by Caden McDonald for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+42
77.5%
Daniel Gutierrez 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.7%
BAKER, Carson pass incomplete to LOTULELEI, L., PENALTY UNLV holding 10 yards to the SDSU35, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
77.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 24 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
78.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
78.6%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
78.3%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Daniel Bellinger, broken up by Bryce JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-2
77.9%
Ethan Dedeaux run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2623% → 23%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
76.8%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
76.9%
Kenyon Oblad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+6
77.3%
Kenyon Oblad run for 6 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
77.3%
Tanner Brown punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2278% → 84%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
77.6%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
78.0%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Isaiah RichardsonSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+12
77.3%
Greg Bell run for 12 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
78.5%
Greg Bell run for 12 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
78.8%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
78.7%
Carson Baker pass complete to Bj Busbee for 2 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+17
78.4%
Carson Baker run for 17 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
78.9%
Carson Baker pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 21 yds to the UNLV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.8%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.6%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Jacob Gasser for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
81.3%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Tyleek Collins for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
81.9%
Kenyon Oblad pass incomplete to Jacob Gasser, broken up by Trenton ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+11
82.1%
Tanner Brown punt blocked by Trenton Thompson blocked by Trenton Thompson Michael Shawcroft return for 11 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.6%
Kenyon Oblad pass complete to Jacob Gasser for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:3884% → 92%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
84.0%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+2
84.0%
Carson Baker run for 2 yds to the UNLV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
84.0%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.0%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
89.6%
Dylan Downing run for 2 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
89.8%
Justin Rogers run for 12 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
89.0%
OBLAD,Kenyon pass complete to WILLIAMS,Kyle for 6 yards to the SDSU40 (THOMPSON, Tariq), PENALTY UNLV illegal formation 5 yards to the UNLV49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-2
89.8%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Tyleek Collins for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 17
OWN 47
-4
90.2%
Justin Rogers sacked by Connor Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 21
OWN 43
+1
90.4%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Dylan Downing for 1 yd to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 20
OWN 44
+6
90.4%
Tanner Brown punt for 38 yds , Isaiah Richardson returns for 6 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:0393% → 95%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
93.0%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 9 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
93.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.2%
Carson Baker pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
93.3%
Segun Olubi run for 5 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
93.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.5%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Sir Oliver EverettSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+18
93.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 18 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
93.4%
Carson Baker pass complete to Tj Sullivan for 16 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
93.4%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
93.4%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
93.0%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the UNLV 10Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+27
95.1%
Matt Araiza 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Justin Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Justin Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.6%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
93.6%
Tanner Brown punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:3796% → 99%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
95.8%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
95.8%
BAKER, Carson pass incomplete to BELLINGER, D., PENALTY UNLV holding 10 yards to the UNLV31, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
95.8%
Carson Baker pass complete to Bj Busbee for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+24
95.7%
Kaegun Williams run for 24 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.6%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.5%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Daniel BellingerSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.4%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Sir Oliver EverettSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
98.7%
Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15TD
18 plays · 81 yds · 6:123% → 5%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
97.4%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-7
97.6%
Max Gilliam sacked by Caden McDonald for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 16Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+23
97.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 23 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
97.2%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 15
OWN 34
-1
97.3%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 33Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+15
97.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Jacob Gasser for 15 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+4
96.9%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
97.1%
Max Gilliam run for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+8
96.9%
Charles Williams run for 8 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
97.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 17 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the SDSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
96.7%
Charles Williams run for 6 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+4
96.5%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+23
97.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 23 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+15
97.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Jacob Gasser for 15 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+4
96.9%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
97.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 17 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the SDSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 4 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
96.3%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Daniel Bellinger, broken up by Vic ViramontesSimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
96.3%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Greg BellSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
96.2%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+7
96.0%
Matt Araiza punt for 50 yds , Tyleek Collins returns for 7 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
95.9%
Dylan Downing run for 3 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
95.8%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Jacob Gasser, broken up by Dwayne Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
96.0%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Dylan DowningSimilar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
96.0%
Tanner Brown punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 31Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
95.8%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Jacob Gasser, broken up by Dwayne Johnson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
96.5%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
96.6%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
96.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 36 yds, downed at the UNLV 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
96.4%
Max Gilliam run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+5
96.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Noah Bean for 5 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+6
96.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 6 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+13
96.3%
Tanner Brown punt for 45 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 13 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
97.5%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 36Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
97.6%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
97.6%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
97.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 52 yds, downed at the UNLV 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21DOWNS
20 plays · 73 yds · 6:203% → 1%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
97.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 8 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+8
97.4%
Charles Williams run for 8 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
97.4%
Max Gilliam pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+25
97.5%
Charles Williams run for 25 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
97.3%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 9 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+2
97.2%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Charles Williams for 2 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
97.3%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
97.9%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
98.2%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Noah BeanSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+5
98.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+3
98.1%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
97.9%
Charles Williams run for 7 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
97.8%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-1
98.0%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+8
98.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
97.8%
Max Gilliam run for 8 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 3
-2
97.8%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+1
98.0%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 4Similar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 3
OPP 4
-11
98.7%
Tyleek Collins run for a loss of 11 yards to the SDSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:1999% → 100%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+40
99.0%
Greg Bell run for 40 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
99.1%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 16
OWN 49
-1
99.0%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 17
OWN 48
+33
99.0%
Carson Baker pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 33 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
Chance Bell run for 19 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-8
99.9%
Max Gilliam sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
99.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Dylan Downing for 7 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Tanner Brown punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 7 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 4 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
UNLV Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-10
99.9%
WILLIAMS, K. rush for 13 yards to the UNLV40 (PLAYER,Tyson;LEWIS,Aaron), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-5
99.9%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 10 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 8
OWN 42
-5
99.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Matt Araiza punt for 58 yds, downed at the UNLV 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
100.0%
Max Gilliam run for no gain to the UNLV 9 Max Gilliam fumbled, forced by Garret Fountain, recovered by SDSt Michael ShawcroftSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:51
Greg Bell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
+8
TD · Q2 10:38
Chance Bell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
+4.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOOD
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com