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SDSU

San Diego State 23 at Nevada 7

NEV
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:54 · Jack Browning punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout marginTimeout advantage
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior−2.2Home team on offense+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score differential+0.2Blowout margin+0.9Timeout advantage+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:48: Jack Browning 27 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:40: Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 6 yds to the SDSt 20 — NEV win probability +8.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q2 0:48: Spencer Curtis 20 Yd pass from Shane Illingworth (Matthew Killam Kick) — SDSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:01: Jack Browning 23 Yd Field Goal — NEV win probability +2.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q3 5:29: Jalen Mayden 32 Yd Run (Jack Browning Kick) — NEV win probability +2.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 9SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:24NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:04SDSU 4th & 4 at NEV 13, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:44SDSU 4th & 24 at NEV 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:48NEV 4th & 19 at SDSU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:48SDSU 4th & 9 at NEV 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:05SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:05SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:29SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 18, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−3.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:01SDSU 4th & 2 at NEV 6, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%−1.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−12.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:23NEV 4th & 17 at NEV 13, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−5.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:26NEV 4th & 13 at SDSU 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    53.4%−1.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:21SDSU 4th & 17 at SDSU 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−6.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:48NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 21, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−4.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:58NEV 4th & 10 at SDSU 41, up 1
    Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    57.9%−1.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:54SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 36, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:54NEV 4th & 7 at SDSU 48, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:40NEV 4th & 5 at SDSU 10, up 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.5%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−28.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:16SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4429% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.7%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+30
28.9%
Patrick McMorris 30 Yd Fumble Return (Jack Browning Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5229% → 29%
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.9%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.9%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
28.9%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
28.9%
Harry Webster punt for 17 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 4:2071% → 71%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
28.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+13
28.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 13 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
28.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+4
28.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
28.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+1
28.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+2
28.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
29.2%
Jack Browning 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1429% → 29%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.4%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
29.5%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
29.3%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
29.2%
Harry Webster punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 5:0671% → 71%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
28.6%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
28.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+21
28.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 21 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
28.6%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
28.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Brionne PennySimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+13
28.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 13 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+1
28.6%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 21
OPP 37
+4
28.7%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 17
OPP 33
-7
28.9%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Eli'jah Winston for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 24
OPP 40
0
29.2%
Jack Browning punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:5629% → 28%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
29.0%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
28.9%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
29.6%
Nate Cox run for 5 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-5
29.8%
PENALTY Nevada False Start (Taua,Toa) 5 yards from Nevada49 to Nevada44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
29.5%
Nate Cox pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
30.0%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-9
29.7%
Nate Cox sacked by Michael Shawcroft for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 49
0
28.8%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
28.4%
Harry Webster punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
16 plays · 79 yds · 7:0071% → 76%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
28.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
28.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+11
29.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 11 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
28.7%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
28.5%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+19
28.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Braxton Burmeister for 19 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
28.0%
Chance Bell run for 24 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
27.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 15 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
27.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+3
27.8%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
27.8%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
27.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
25.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
23.8%
Jack Browning 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 0:0026% → 36%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
26.0%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
26.1%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
26.2%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
26.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 1 yd to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-5
26.1%
PENALTY Nevada False Start (Campbell,Dalevon) 5 yards from Nevada25 to Nevada20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 16
OWN 20
0
26.0%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+16
25.6%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 16 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
26.6%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
26.8%
Shane Illingworth run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+26
26.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 26 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
27.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
28.8%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
27.7%
Wesley Kommer run for 1 yd to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
36.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 6 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:4367% → 53%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
33.2%
Spencer Curtis 20 Yd pass from Shane Illingworth (Matthew Killam Kick)Similar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
45.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 10 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
43.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Chance BellSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
44.0%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Dwight Togiola for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
45.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+10
46.7%
Jack Browning punt for 38 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 10 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+10
46.7%
Jack Browning punt for 38 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 10 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
47.3%
Kneel down by Nevada at Nevada09 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2354% → 50%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
46.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
46.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 21
OWN 12
+6
47.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 15
OWN 18
0
49.6%
Jack Browning punt for 59 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for no gain to the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0948% → 48%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
48.0%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
47.8%
Shane Illingworth pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13FG
9 plays · 19 yds · 4:1958% → 52%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 11
OPP 25
+1
42.2%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
42.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for no gain to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+12
45.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+7
43.3%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+1
43.2%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+5
46.1%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
48.5%
Jack Browning 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3352% → 51%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
52.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Carlton Brown III for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-7
52.1%
Shane Illingworth sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 13Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
50.8%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Jeremiah GradowitzSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
51.3%
Harry Webster punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:5452% → 52%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
47.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 9 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+10
47.1%
Shotgun Mayden,Jalen pass incomplete short middle to Shaw,Mekhi broken up by Sanders,Bentlee, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Nevada Pass Interference (Sanders,Bentlee) 10 yards from Nevada47 to Nevada37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
47.1%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
45.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Chris JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+32
48.5%
Jalen Mayden 32 Yd Run (Jack Browning Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 50 yds · 3:5654% → 56%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
54.3%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+24
54.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 24 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
55.4%
Toa Taua run for 27 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
59.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 4 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
60.9%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Carlos Sandy for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-8
59.0%
Shane Illingworth sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
55.7%
Harry Webster punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:0544% → 41%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
55.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 9 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+3
54.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
56.2%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+5
55.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Aaron Greene for 5 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
55.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Brionne PennySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+22
56.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 40
0
54.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 40
0
55.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jordan ByrdSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+3
56.3%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
58.9%
Jack Browning punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3360% → 58%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
59.8%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 6 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
60.3%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
58.2%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
57.9%
Harry Webster punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:3543% → 45%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
56.8%
Cam Davis run for 4 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
54.2%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+15
55.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 15 yds Jesse Matthews fumbled, recovered by SDSt Naki MateialonaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1566% → 63%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
66.2%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 8
50
+9
66.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Toa Taua for 9 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
67.1%
Shane Illingworth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
66.8%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
65.1%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
63.3%
Harry Webster punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0441% → 39%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
58.9%
Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+2
56.8%
Martin Blake run for 2 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
57.6%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
61.0%
Jack Browning punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:1465% → 75%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
64.6%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Toa Taua for 16 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
66.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Toa Taua for 12 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
69.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 4 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
69.6%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
68.3%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+23
64.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 23 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
72.0%
PENALTY Nevada False Start (Campbell,Dalevon) 5 yards from SDSU25 to SDSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 15
OPP 30
0
71.0%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+15
69.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 15 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
71.9%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Wesley Kommer for 2 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
71.9%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+3
69.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Carlos Sandy for 3 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 5
OPP 10
0
74.6%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:4032% → 17%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
68.0%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
68.3%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+6
82.7%
Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-82.7
TD · Q2 7:40
Shane Illingworth pass complete to BJ Casteel for 6 yds to the SDSt 20
+8.3
TD · Q2 0:48
Spencer Curtis 20 Yd pass from Shane Illingworth (Matthew Killam Kick)
-2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com