Try the model
SJSU

San José State 27 at San Diego State 43

SDSU
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Snapdragon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:27 · Jack Browning punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Hamilton at the SJSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense+27.4Score differential+13.9Pregame prior−1.7Garbage-time factor+12.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:15: Tyrell Shavers 66 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Jack Browning Kick) — SDSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:15: Mekhi Shaw 17 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Jack Browning Kick) — SDSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:40: Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +17.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:15: Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:44: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Skylar Loving-Black for 32 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SJSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 3:18SJSU 4th & 22 at SJSU 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:55SDSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:49SDSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:05SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:03SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:48SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:19SJSU 4th & 18 at SJSU 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−3.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:27SDSU 4th & 2 at midfield, up 18
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:55SDSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 14, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:48SDSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 11:23SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:58SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:45SDSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:15SDSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:15SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:40SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:15SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:44SJSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:59SJSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:3259% → 60%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
40.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
40.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 11 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
40.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 7 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
40.9%
Kairee Robinson run for no gain to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+27
40.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 27 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
40.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
40.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+14
40.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 14 yds to the SDSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
40.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 4Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
40.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 11:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
40.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 4 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2INT
6 plays · 9 yds · 3:1641% → 40%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
40.7%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+9
40.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jay Rudolph for 9 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 15
OWN 22
-1
40.7%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Lando Grey for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 21Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+5
40.7%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
40.1%
Jalen Mayden pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:0361% → 65%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
39.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
39.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 9 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
39.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
39.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 8 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+8
39.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 8 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
39.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
39.5%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 2 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.5%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 3 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:2159% → 58%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
41.0%
Nick Nash run for 3 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 13
OWN 20
0
41.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Jackson CanaanSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 13
OWN 20
-9
41.5%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 22
OWN 11
0
41.8%
Alex Weir punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SJSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:2943% → 43%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
43.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 13
OPP 45
0
42.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+8
42.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 8 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+13
41.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 13 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
42.9%
Jordan Byrd pass incomplete to Jay RudolphSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+23
42.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 23 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
43.2%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SJSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
43.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jay RudolphSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.3%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
43.3%
Jack Browning 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4058% → 57%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
42.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Isaac Jernagin for 12 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
41.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for no gain to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
42.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 5 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
42.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
42.9%
Alex Weir punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:5043% → 48%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
42.7%
Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+66
48.4%
Tyrell Shavers 66 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Jack Browning Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1252% → 51%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
48.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+11
48.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 11 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
48.6%
Alex Weir punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 4:4848% → 60%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
48.2%
Mekhi Shaw run for 7 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+21
49.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 21 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
50.2%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-7
50.0%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Kyle Harmon for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 45Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+18
48.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 18 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
50.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 11 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
50.5%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+17
60.0%
Mekhi Shaw 17 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Jack Browning Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2741% → 39%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Jackson CanaanSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
60.0%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 3 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
61.5%
Alex Weir punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11END OF HALF
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:4859% → 66%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
59.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 16 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
61.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
61.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 5 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
60.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
61.5%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
61.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 10 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
61.6%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
67.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+8
66.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 8 yds to the SJSt 41 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by SJSt Alama UluaveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 5:1667% → 87%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
67.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+11
67.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 11 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
68.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 12 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
68.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+6
68.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 6 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
68.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 11 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
69.0%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
69.0%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the SJSt 20Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
86.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1517% → 15%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
83.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
84.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for no gain to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-8
84.2%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 19Similar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 18
OWN 19
0
85.5%
Alex Weir punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 5:0489% → 97%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
88.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 14 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
88.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 6 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+2
88.8%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+5
88.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
88.9%
Kenan Christon run for 18 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
88.9%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+1
88.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the SJSt 19 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by SJSt Jalen MaydenSimilar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+17
88.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 17 yds to the SJSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:314% → 9%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 9 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
96.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 3 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
96.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 14 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
96.1%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 9 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
95.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Skylar Loving-Black for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+32
91.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Skylar Loving-Black for 32 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:3395% → 97%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.4%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
95.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 7 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
95.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for 9 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
95.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by SJSt Jalen MaydenSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
95.7%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+7
95.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 2
50
0
97.0%
Jack Browning punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Hamilton at the SJSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
97.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 4:2697% → 99%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
97.2%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+8
97.2%
Jalen Mayden run for 8 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+6
97.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for 6 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
97.3%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the SJSt 21Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+5
97.3%
Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+2
97.2%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
99.0%
Jack Browning 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:560% → 2%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Jermaine BraddockSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-7
99.5%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Keshawn Banks for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+5
99.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 5 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
99.5%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Cooper McDonald for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+8
99.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 8 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+16
99.5%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 16 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
98.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 21 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1098% → 99%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
98.4%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
98.4%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
98.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
99.2%
Jack Browning punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21SF
1 play · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.2%
Jonah Tavai SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.5%
J. Mayden takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:40
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)
+17.8
TD · Q2 6:15
Mekhi Shaw 17 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Jack Browning Kick)
+9.5
TD · Q2 12:15
Tyrell Shavers 66 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Jack Browning Kick)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com