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HAW

Hawai'i 14 at San Diego State 16

SDSU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:47 · Jack Browning punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nicholas Cenacle at the Hawa 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior+34.0Home team on offense+1.2Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:27: Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 66 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +7.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 1:19: Dedrick Parson run for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +52.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:19: Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 14 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST down — SDSU win probability +26.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 0:07: Jack Browning 26 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +42.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 0:00: Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 18 yds Zion Bowens fumbled, recovered by SDSt Cooper McDonald — HAW win probability +8.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:12HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:42HAW 4th & 2 at SDSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:15SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:50HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:47SDSU 4th & 4 at HAW 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:03HAW 4th & 15 at SDSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:10SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:24HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:39SDSU 4th & 10 at HAW 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:20SDSU 4th & 21 at SDSU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−3.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:26HAW 4th & 14 at SDSU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−1.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:16SDSU 4th & 8 at HAW 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−13.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:17HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 26, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:57SDSU 4th & 11 at HAW 14, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−9.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 10:58SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:27HAW Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:19HAW Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−4.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:436% → 7%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
93.6%
Dedrick Parson run for 1 yd to the Hawa 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+2
93.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 2 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+8
93.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 8 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
93.6%
Dedrick Parson run for 6 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+6
93.6%
Dedrick Parson run for 6 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
93.6%
Tylan Hines run for 2 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
93.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for no gain to the Hawa 48Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
93.6%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
92.7%
Matthew Shipley punt for 47 yds, downed at the SDSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 4:1193% → 91%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
92.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 6Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+5
92.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 5 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+9
92.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 9 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
92.7%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+10
92.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 10 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
92.6%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+2
91.3%
Jack Browning punt for 53 yds , Nicholas Cenacle returns for 2 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:199% → 10%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
91.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 4 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
91.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 8 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
91.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 5 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+9
91.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 9 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
91.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 8 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
91.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
90.1%
Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
90.2%
Matthew Shipley punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:2791% → 90%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
90.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 4 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
90.5%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-12
90.4%
MAYDEN, Jalen pass up the middle complete for 12 yards to REDMAN, Mark caught at the SDS23 and advanced to the SDS28 (PAVIHI, Penei). PENALTY SDS Holding on SIMMONS, Josh enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the SDS16 to the SDS8 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 14
OWN 8
+4
90.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 10
OWN 12
-2
89.5%
Jack Browning punt for 45 yds , Nicholas Cenacle returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2511% → 11%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
89.0%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
89.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
89.3%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
89.4%
Matthew Shipley punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:0390% → 88%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
89.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
89.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
89.4%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
89.2%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
89.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 9 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+12
89.9%
Chance Bell run for 12 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
90.0%
Chance Bell run for 6 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
88.5%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the Hawa 43Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
88.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
87.8%
Jack Browning punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nicholas Cenacle at the Hawa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:4413% → 16%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
87.1%
Dedrick Parson run for 8 yds to the Hawa 17Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+3
86.9%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.9%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
87.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Justus Tavai) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
86.6%
Tylan Hines run for 8 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
86.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+9
86.3%
Brayden Schager run for 9 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
86.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+15
85.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 15 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
85.6%
Dedrick Parson run for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+1
86.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 1 yd to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
86.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
84.2%
Matthew Shipley punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 3:5385% → 83%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
85.2%
Kenan Christon run for 6 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+1
85.2%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the SDSt 12Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+7
84.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
85.3%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
85.3%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+15
84.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 15 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+7
82.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
84.4%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Tariq Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
83.2%
Jack Browning punt for 49 yds , Nicholas Cenacle returns for no gain to the Hawa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4618% → 17%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
82.3%
Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
82.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
82.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+10
82.7%
Matthew Shipley punt for 51 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 10 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:4584% → 85%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
84.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 11 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
84.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 14 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
85.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 11 yds to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
85.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
85.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
85.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
85.2%
Jack Browning 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
86.8%
[NH] Kneel down by SCHAGER, Brayden at HAW21 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 4:0284% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
84.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 7 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
85.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 5 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
85.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 18 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+16
86.1%
Chance Bell run for 16 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
86.1%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the Hawa 15Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
91.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 15 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:2510% → 18%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
89.8%
Tylan Hines run for 8 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+5
89.2%
Tylan Hines run for 5 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
89.4%
Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
89.1%
HAWAII Penalty, False Start (Stephan Bernal-Wendt) to the Hawa 35Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
89.8%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive Holding (Stephan Bernal-Wendt) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+66
82.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 66 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:0782% → 78%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
82.0%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
81.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 8 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+25
81.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 25 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-15
84.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Block below the waist on SIMMONS, Josh enforced (Josh Simmons) to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 23
OWN 42
-7
82.3%
Jalen Mayden sacked by John Tuitupou for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 30
OWN 35
+9
80.9%
Kenan Christon run for 9 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 21
OWN 44
0
78.1%
Jack Browning punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nicholas Cenacle at the Hawa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:5421% → 21%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
79.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 10 yds to the Hawa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
79.4%
Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+9
78.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 9 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
78.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 9 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+15
76.3%
Dedrick Parson run for 15 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
76.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
77.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
78.9%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
79.2%
Matthew Shipley punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:1078% → 88%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
78.1%
Cam Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+4
76.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+9
75.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 9 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
77.5%
Chance Bell run for 13 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
79.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 6 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-5
80.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson) to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
79.3%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+41
77.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 41 yds to the Hawa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
81.2%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
82.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
81.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
87.5%
Jack Browning 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5419% → 17%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.6%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
81.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 6 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
80.6%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
83.2%
Matthew Shipley punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:2088% → 89%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.8%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
87.3%
Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+20
87.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
50
-5
89.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Kenan Christon) to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
89.6%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+42
89.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 42 yds to the Hawa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
90.7%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 14Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
90.6%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the Hawa 14Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
89.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
89.3%
Jack Browning 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:3818% → 80%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
81.8%
Tylan Hines run for 27 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
77.1%
Tylan Hines run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 7
50
+11
76.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 11 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
75.7%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+12
75.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 12 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
72.9%
Tylan Hines run for 3 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
20.1%
Dedrick Parson run for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 1:1246% → 95%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
46.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 14 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
52.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 4 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+6
50.0%
MAYDEN, Jalen pass up the middle incomplete intended for SHAVERS, Tyrell thrown to the HAW42. PENALTY HAW Pass Interference on MANUMA, Peter enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the HAW41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
49.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 6 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+7
55.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 7 yds to the Hawa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
55.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 3 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+16
50.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 16 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
95.4%
Jack Browning 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Zion Bowens for 18 yds Zion Bowens fumbled, recovered by SDSt Cooper McDonaldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:19
Dedrick Parson run for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
-52.8
FG · Q4 0:07
Jack Browning 26 yd FG GOOD
+42.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:19
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 14 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST down
+26.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com