Try the model
UTSA

UTSA 24 at San Diego State 38

SDSU
2021 · Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl · Dec 21, 2021 · Toyota Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:48 · Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Home team on offense+2.0Pregame prior+3.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:14: Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:59: Greg Bell run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:39: Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 24 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:00: Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 3 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +16.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:51: Lucas Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:11SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12UTSA 4th & 7 at SDSU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:18SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:10SDSU 4th & 4 at UTSA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−1.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:46UTSA 4th & 1 at SDSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−2.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:48SDSU 4th & 3 at UTSA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:55UTSA 4th & 6 at SDSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:09UTSA 4th & 10 at SDSU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:02SDSU 4th & 11 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:37UTSA 4th & 1 at SDSU 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−2.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−9.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:13UTSA 4th & 17 at SDSU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:36UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:09SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:02UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:14SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:59SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:39SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:00UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:51SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0943% → 44%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
57.0%
Brenden Brady run for 8 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
57.0%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+29
57.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 29 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
56.9%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+27
56.9%
Brenden Brady run for 27 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
56.8%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
56.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
56.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 12 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0156% → 55%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
56.1%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
55.9%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-6
55.7%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Clarence Hicks for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+12
55.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 46 yds , Cade Stoever returns for 12 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:5045% → 46%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
55.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 8 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+7
54.8%
Brenden Brady run for 7 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
54.6%
Brenden Brady run for no gain to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
54.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 12 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
53.9%
De'Corian Clark run for 2 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+1
53.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
53.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
53.7%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:5555% → 59%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
54.5%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+12
54.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
50
+15
55.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
55.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+13
55.3%
Kaegun Williams run for 13 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
55.3%
Lucas Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
58.7%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5143% → 50%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to B.J. Daniels for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
57.1%
B.J. Daniels run for 12 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
56.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 6 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+17
56.2%
B.J. Daniels run for 17 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
56.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Dan DishmanSimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
56.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+5
55.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
55.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+15
54.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.4%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0852% → 51%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
52.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 6 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-3
52.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
51.1%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
50.5%
Matt Araiza punt for 49 yds , Cade Stoever returns for no gain to the TexSA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:4649% → 49%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
51.0%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the TexSA 12Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
51.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 5 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
50.9%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 20
-7
50.7%
Frank Harris sacked by Keshawn Banks for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 13Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 9
OWN 13
+1
51.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 42 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 1 yd to the SDSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:5452% → 60%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
51.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 12 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
52.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 7 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-1
53.2%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
51.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+5
50.9%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
52.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+30
50.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 30 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
52.1%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
52.1%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
59.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:1644% → 47%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
56.0%
Brenden Brady run for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
54.6%
Brenden Brady run for 5 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
54.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+21
54.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 21 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
52.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
52.4%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+10
53.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 10 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
53.2%
Brenden Brady run for no gain to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:4858% → 59%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
58.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+3
57.7%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+16
57.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 16 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
60.1%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-5
60.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+12
60.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
61.0%
Chance Bell run for 6 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
61.6%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
60.8%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
58.8%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:5346% → 46%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
53.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
51.8%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
51.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
51.8%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
53.8%
Lucas Dean punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12END OF HALF
15 plays · 74 yds · 1:4558% → 63%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
57.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 14 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
57.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 5 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
58.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 7 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
58.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 32 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
63.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 10 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
63.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
62.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 15
OPP 27
-5
62.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+31
61.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 31 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
64.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the TexSA 16Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
0
63.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
62.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
63.4%
Matt Araiza 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:4366% → 78%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
65.6%
Lucas Johnson run for 13 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
66.6%
Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
66.6%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
66.6%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+19
66.7%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 19 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.7%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 1:3325% → 30%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
74.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
73.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+35
75.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 35 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
71.9%
Joshua Cephus pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
72.5%
Frank Harris run for 5 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
73.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 5
OPP 19
-5
75.4%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
70.5%
Hunter Duplessis 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:0072% → 74%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 15 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
75.4%
Greg Bell run for 11 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
76.2%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 11
50
+5
75.8%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-5
76.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 11
50
0
76.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 11
50
0
74.4%
Matt Araiza punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cade Stoever at the TexSA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16INT
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:1428% → 29%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
72.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 3 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+35
72.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 35 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
70.2%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
69.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
70.8%
Frank Harris pass intercepted C.J. Baskerville return for no gain to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:5277% → 92%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
76.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Daniel BellingerSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
76.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 5 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+5
76.5%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
78.5%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+25
79.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Kobe Smith for 25 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
80.0%
Lucas Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+24
91.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 24 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:2113% → 28%
Q3 2:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+33
86.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 33 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
85.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
84.6%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
85.2%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-5
86.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+10
86.9%
Frank Harris run for 10 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+4
89.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
88.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
88.3%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the SDSt 3Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 3 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:3185% → 96%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.5%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
84.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 8 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+15
85.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
86.8%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+15
86.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
88.1%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+7
88.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
88.4%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+8
89.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the TexSA 7Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+5
88.7%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the TexSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.0%
Lucas Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:196% → 5%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
94.2%
B.J. Daniels run for 9 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Dan DishmanSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
94.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 2 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST down lat. to B.J. Daniels for 16 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
94.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-7
94.6%
Frank Harris sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 17
OPP 49
0
95.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21END OF GAME
16 plays · 45 yds · 6:4196% → 99%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.3%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
96.7%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+13
96.8%
Greg Bell run for 13 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
97.3%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-5
97.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+9
97.3%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
98.0%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
98.1%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
98.2%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+3
98.4%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
98.7%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
98.8%
Chance Bell run for 8 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:00
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 3 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q3 2:39
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 24 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q3 11:59
Greg Bell run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com