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UTAH

Utah 31 at San Diego State 33

SDSU
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:53 · Matt Araiza punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 45Home team on offense−1.3Pregame prior−11.6Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:24: Greg Bell 7 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick) — SDSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:42: Greg Bell 7 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick) — SDSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:17: Britain Covey 2 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Jadon Redding PAT failed) — UTAH win probability +5.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:16: Theo Howard 4 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Cameron Rising Pass to Connor O'Toole for Two-Point Conversion) — UTAH win probability +49.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Cameron Rising pass incomplete JOHNSON, Lucas pass up the middle incomplete intended for BELLINGER, Daniel thrown to the UTA0. PENALTY UTA Pass Interference on MCKINNEY, Brandon enforced 8 yards to the UTA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). — SDSU win probability +39.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UTAH made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:02UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:46SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:50UTAH 4th & 19 at UTAH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:02SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:36SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:14UTAH 4th & 22 at UTAH 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:54SDSU 4th & 7 at UTAH 34, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:16UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:53SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:51UTAH 4th & 7 at SDSU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:52UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:07SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:15UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:06SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:06UTAH 4th & 10 at SDSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:24SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:08UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:55SDSU 4th & 3 at UTAH 31, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.4%−1.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−2.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:55UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.3%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:14UTAH 4th & 10 at UTAH 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:58UTAH 4th & 12 at SDSU 12, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−5.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:33SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 11, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:36SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q3 11:24SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:42SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:17UTAH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    8.4%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:16UTAH Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.9%−12.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTAHDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5866% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.2%
Micah Bernard run for 8 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
34.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 2 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
34.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
34.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Britain Covey for 1 yd to the Utah 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
34.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
35.1%
Cameron Peasley punt for 38 yds, downed at the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1635% → 35%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
35.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 4 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
35.0%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
35.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+17
35.4%
Matt Araiza punt for 44 yds , Britain Covey returns for 17 yds to the Utah 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:5665% → 63%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
35.3%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 41Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-1
35.4%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 40Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
35.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Garret Fountain for 0 yards to the Utah 33Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
36.6%
Cameron Peasley punt for 42 yds, downed at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4836% → 34%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Greg Bell for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
36.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 3 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
36.1%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+80
34.1%
Matt Araiza punt for 57 yds , Britain Covey returns for 80 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1935% → 34%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
34.6%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
34.4%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 21Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 15
OWN 21
0
34.2%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
34.0%
Matt Araiza punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:2266% → 65%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
34.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
34.2%
TJ Pledger run for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 30Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
34.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Garret Fountain for 0 yards to the Utah 23Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 22
OWN 23
0
34.9%
Cameron Peasley punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:2035% → 38%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
34.8%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
35.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 10 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
35.6%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
35.4%
Greg Bell run for 12 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
35.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Kaegun Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 38Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
35.5%
Lucas Johnson run for no gain to the Utah 38Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+4
35.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Kobe Smith for 4 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+51
37.5%
Matt Araiza 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3863% → 63%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.1%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
37.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 8 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
37.3%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 35 fumbled, recovered by Utah Charlie BrewerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
38.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Solomon Enis for 10 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
37.5%
Cameron Peasley punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2338% → 38%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
37.6%
Lucas Johnson run for 23 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
38.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
38.3%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
37.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
37.4%
Matt Araiza punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 17Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
37.6%
UTAH Penalty, False Start (Brant Kuithe) to the Utah 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 5:0262% → 68%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+1
37.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 1 yd to the Utah 13Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+7
37.8%
Micah Bernard run for 7 yds to the Utah 20Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+3
38.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Solomon Enis for 3 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+5
38.7%
Punt by PEASLEY, Cameron at the UTA23 is blocked by SHAVERS, Tyrell, recovered by SDS SMITH, Kobe at the UTA20, returned 0 yards to the UTA20, End of Play. PENALTY SDS Offsides on ALVES, Andrew enforced 5 yards from the UTA23 to the UTA28 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
37.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Connor O'Toole for 5 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
36.9%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
36.7%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 34Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+6
37.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 6 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+15
37.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Targeting on MCMORRIS, Patrick enforced (Patrick McMorris) to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
36.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 15 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
35.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
35.8%
TJ Pledger run for 3 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
36.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
31.9%
Jadon Redding 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3959% → 58%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
40.7%
TJ Pledger run for no gain to the Utah 26Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
40.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+17
41.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 17 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
39.0%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
38.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Michael Shawcroft for 0 yards to the Utah 44Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
40.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+3
42.5%
Cameron Peasley punt for 48 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:4545% → 42%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
44.5%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+17
44.6%
Greg Bell run for 17 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
45.1%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+4
44.6%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
44.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jesse Matthews) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+10
44.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 47 yds , Britain Covey returns for 10 yds to the Utah 16Similar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
42.1%
BERNARD, Micah rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UTA18 (TAVAI, Jonah;NEVES, Kahi). PENALTY UTA Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the UTA16 to the UTA8 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:5257% → 56%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 18
OWN 8
+5
42.7%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the Utah 13Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 13
OWN 13
-5
42.7%
UTAH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Utah 8Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+7
42.8%
Micah Bernard run for 7 yds to the Utah 15Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+8
43.5%
Micah Bernard run for 8 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+1
43.7%
Cameron Peasley punt for 41 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 1 yd to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0945% → 44%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.8%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Mika Tafua for 0 yards to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+8
43.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
43.7%
Kaegun Williams run for no gain to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+7
44.0%
Matt Araiza punt for 49 yds , Britain Covey returns for 7 yds to the Utah 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 3:11
4TH & 28
OWN 20
+1
42.4%
Matt Araiza punt for 77 yds , returns for 1 yd to the Utah 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 3:3147% → 64%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
46.6%
Lucas Johnson run for 8 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+4
47.9%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
46.9%
Lucas Johnson run for no gain to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
46.5%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+54
48.2%
Lucas Johnson run for 54 yds to the Utah 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.7%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the Utah 7Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
64.3%
Greg Bell 7 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17INT
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:3839% → 40%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
60.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to TJ Pledger for 14 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
59.6%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted return for no gain to the Utah 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
78.4%
Greg Bell 7 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3624% → 22%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.7%
Micah Bernard run for 4 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
74.7%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
74.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Britain Covey for 6 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
74.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 14 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
73.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
73.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
74.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
77.8%
punt blocked by Tyrell Shavers blocked by Tyrell ShaversSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:4281% → 82%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
80.6%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+5
80.7%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
80.8%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
80.7%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
80.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
82.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 60 yds, downed at the Utah 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1620% → 15%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
80.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 5 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
79.9%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the Utah 23Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
80.9%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+7
83.0%
Cameron Peasley punt for 45 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 7 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
86.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Jay Rudolph) to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+15
85.5%
JOHNSON, Lucas pass up the middle incomplete intended for SHAVERS, Tyrell thrown to the UTA27. PENALTY UTA Pass Interference on MARKS, Faybian enforced 15 yards to the SDS49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22MISSED FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 4:1386% → 90%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
86.3%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the Utah 43Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-1
86.4%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 44Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
85.9%
Lucas Johnson run for 6 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
86.5%
Kaegun Williams run for no gain to the Utah 38Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
86.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 4 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+3
91.2%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+48
90.3%
Matt Araiza 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:4113% → 11%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
87.2%
Micah Bernard run for 1 yd to the Utah 32Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+6
87.7%
Cameron Rising run for 6 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+3
87.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 3 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.3%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
86.5%
Micah Bernard run for no gain to the Utah 41Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
86.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
89.3%
Cameron Peasley punt for 34 yds, downed at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 1:2492% → 93%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.3%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
93.3%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 33 fumbled, recovered by Utah Devin LloydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:5213% → 10%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
87.5%
Cameron Rising run for 24 yds to the SDSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.0%
Micah Bernard run for no gain to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
87.0%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 12Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
88.3%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+8
90.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 8 yds to the SDSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:2594% → 95%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
94.1%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 4Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+2
94.1%
Lucas Johnson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+5
94.1%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+12
95.0%
Matt Araiza punt for 64 yds , Britain Covey returns for 12 yds to the Utah 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 27TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:168% → 15%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
92.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 5 yds to the Utah 42Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+13
92.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 13 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
91.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to TJ Pledger for 6 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+16
91.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 16 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
90.8%
Cameron Rising run for no gain to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
91.2%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+15
91.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 15 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
90.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 2 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
90.7%
Cameron Rising run for 4 yds to the SDSt 2Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.9%
Britain Covey 2 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Jadon Redding PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:3793% → 95%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
92.5%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+7
92.4%
Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
94.5%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+2
95.1%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
95.5%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+6
94.9%
Matt Araiza punt for 59 yds , Britain Covey returns for 6 yds to the Utah 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 29TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 2:206% → 58%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
94.5%
Cameron Rising run for 12 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
93.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 6 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
93.4%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+13
93.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 13 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
92.9%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
93.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 11 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
91.5%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
91.8%
RISING, Cameron pass to the left incomplete intended for VELE, Devaughn broken up by TUMBLIN, Noah at the SDS0. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on TUMBLIN, Noah enforced 15 yards to the SDS17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
91.0%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
91.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 3 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+9
92.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 9 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
91.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 1 yd to the SDSt 4Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.0%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.7%
Theo Howard 4 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Cameron Rising Pass to Connor O'Toole for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 31TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
82.3%
Cameron Rising pass incomplete JOHNSON, Lucas pass up the middle incomplete intended for BELLINGER, Daniel thrown to the UTA0. PENALTY UTA Pass Interference on MCKINNEY, Brandon enforced 8 yards to the UTA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 32MISSED FG
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
65.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 25 yds for a TD Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 25 yds for a TD Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 15 yds to the Utah 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:16
Theo Howard 4 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Cameron Rising Pass to Connor O'Toole for Two-Point Conversion)
-49.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+40.3
TD · OT 0:00
Cameron Rising pass incomplete JOHNSON, Lucas pass up the middle incomplete intended for BELLINGER, Daniel thrown to the UTA0. PENALTY UTA Pass Interference on MCKINNEY, Brandon enforced 8 yards to the UTA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+39.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com