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SDSU

San Diego State 19 at San José State 13

SJSU
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2021 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:00 · Matt Araiza punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Shamar Garrett at the SJSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 72Pregame prior−16.8Home team on offense−2.7Score differential−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Time remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 14:49: Matt Mercurio 48 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:31: Jordan Byrd run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down — SDSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:05: Timeout SAN JOSÉ ST, clock 01:05 — SJSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SJSt 24 Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SJSt 24 Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SJSt 24 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the SDSt 30 — SDSU win probability +32.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 14 yds for a TD Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 14 yds for a TD Nick Nash pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 3 yds to the SDSt 1 — SJSU win probability +58.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12SDSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:01SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:41SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:18SJSU 4th & 22 at SDSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:14SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:14SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:16SDSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:17SJSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:00SDSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:24SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:54SDSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−6.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:36SDSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 38, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    62.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:36SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.3%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:20SJSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:05SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−2.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:49SJSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 31, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−2.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:32SDSU 4th & 17 at SDSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−8.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:26SJSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−5.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:18SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−7.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:31SJSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−11.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−12.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:23SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−9.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:15SJSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−6.3
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−13.3
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5924% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.2%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
24.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
24.2%
Nick Nash sacked by Cameron Thomas for 0 yards to the SJSt 28Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
25.1%
Will Hart punt for 42 yds, downed at the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:0175% → 74%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
25.2%
Jordon Brookshire run for 4 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
25.1%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
25.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+5
25.2%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
25.1%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
25.0%
BROOKSHIRE, Jordon pass to the right incomplete intended for SHAVERS, Tyrell thrown to the SJS27. PENALTY SJS Offsides on HALL, Cade enforced 5 yards from the SDS48 to the SJS47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
25.0%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
25.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 3 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
26.2%
Jordon Brookshire run for no gain to the SJSt 42 fumbled, recovered by SJSt Tysyn ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1927% → 27%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
27.0%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
26.9%
Nick Nash pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 6 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
27.0%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
27.3%
Will Hart punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2273% → 72%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
27.2%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
27.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
28.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
15 plays · 25 yds · 5:0128% → 30%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
28.0%
Nick Nash run for 16 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
28.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
28.5%
Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 6 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-10
28.5%
NEVENS, Tyler rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the SDS45 (MCMORRIS, Patrick). PENALTY SJS Holding on HOPPE, Kyle enforced 10 yards from the SDS49 to the SJS41 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+21
27.8%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 21 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
28.7%
NEVENS, Tyler rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the SDS37 (BANKS, Keshawn). PENALTY Before the snap, SDS Delay Of Game on HAWKINS, Tayler enforced 5 yards from the end of the play at the SDS37 to the SDS32. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-3
28.8%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
28.7%
NEVENS, Tyler rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the SDS37 (BANKS, Keshawn). PENALTY Before the snap, SDS Delay Of Game on HAWKINS, Tayler enforced 5 yards from the end of the play at the SDS37 to the SDS32. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-3
28.8%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 22
50
0
30.6%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-15
31.7%
NASH, Nick pass to the right complete for 35 yards to ROSS, Charles caught at the SDS0 and advanced to the SDS0, TOUCHDOWN SJS, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY SJS Face mask on HOPPE, Kyle enforced 15 yards from the SDS35 to the SJS50 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 17
OPP 45
0
30.7%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-15
31.7%
NASH, Nick pass to the right complete for 30 yards to ROSS, Charles caught at the SDS0 and advanced to the SDS0, TOUCHDOWN SJS, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY SJS Face mask on HOPPE, Kyle enforced 15 yards from the SDS30 to the SDS45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 22
OPP 45
0
30.2%
Will Hart punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0470% → 68%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
30.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 15 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
29.9%
Jordon Brookshire run for 8 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-2
29.3%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+5
30.0%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offsides (Tre Jenkins) to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
30.4%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by Alii Matau for 0 yards to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+6
31.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 6 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
30.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
31.7%
Matt Araiza punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0032% → 32%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
32.4%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
32.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
31.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Charles Ross) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
31.9%
Will Hart punt for 39 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SJSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5870% → 68%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
30.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 16 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
30.1%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-10
29.9%
BELL, Greg rush to the right for no gain to the SJS26 (MATAU, Alii;SHELTON, Nehemiah). PENALTY SDS Holding on CRENSHAW-DICKSON, Brandon enforced 10 yards from the SJS26 to the SJS36 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-5
31.0%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 20
OPP 41
0
31.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 20
OPP 41
+5
32.5%
ARAIZA, Matt punt -43 yards to the SDS16, fair catch by GARRETT, Shamar. PENALTY SJS Offsides enforced 5 yards from the SJS41 to the SJS36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 15
OPP 36
+53
31.6%
Matt Araiza 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:5932% → 36%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
31.5%
Shamar Garrett run for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSt 19Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
31.3%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+29
29.9%
Nick Nash pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 29 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+37
32.9%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 37 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
34.5%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SDSt 15Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
34.5%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
33.4%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
36.1%
Matt Mercurio 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1067% → 67%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
32.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 11 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
31.9%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+4
31.2%
Jordon Brookshire run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
31.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
31.5%
BJ Busbee run for 4 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
31.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
33.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Shamar Garrett at the SJSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3637% → 36%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
36.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 11 yds to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
36.9%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
36.5%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
35.5%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+4
35.7%
Will Hart punt for 50 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 4 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:3066% → 70%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
34.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to BJ Busbee for 13 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
32.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
33.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+8
33.3%
Jordon Brookshire run for 8 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
31.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 6 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
31.5%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
31.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kenyon Reed) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
30.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
31.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 7 yds to the SJSt 9Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
32.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
29.8%
Matt Araiza 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:5433% → 33%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
32.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:1967% → 64%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
33.0%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
33.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+12
34.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to BJ Busbee for 12 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
32.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to BJ Busbee for 16 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
31.1%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+19
31.0%
BJ Busbee run for 3 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
30.6%
Jordon Brookshire run for no gain to the SJSt 36Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
30.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-2
31.2%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 38Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 12
OPP 38
+55
35.6%
Matt Araiza 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 3:1637% → 35%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
36.8%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
36.4%
Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 5 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
37.9%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
36.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
38.6%
NASH, Nick pass to the left incomplete intended for HAMILTON, Isaiah thrown to the SDS6. PENALTY SDS Roughing the Passer on TAVAI, Jonah enforced 15 yards from the SJS48 to the SDS37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
39.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Snyder) to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 18
OPP 45
+8
37.2%
Nick Nash run for 8 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
39.1%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-5
38.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Nick Nash) to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 15
OPP 42
0
35.7%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
34.9%
Will Hart punt for 34 yds, downed at the SDSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1565% → 62%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
35.1%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+3
34.8%
Jordon Brookshire run for 3 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-5
35.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (William Dunkle) to the SDSt 11Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
36.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for no gain to the SDSt 11Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
37.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 86 yds, downed at the SJSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:1637% → 51%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
36.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 9 yds to the SJSt 12Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+13
37.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 13 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
37.9%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 6 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
38.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
38.9%
Nick Nash sacked for 0 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+39
37.1%
Nick Nash pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 39 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
43.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-1
46.4%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
43.7%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
50.6%
Matt Mercurio 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:1155% → 51%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
45.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-10
45.5%
BELL, Greg rush to the right for no gain to the SDS19 (HARMON, Kyle). PENALTY SDS Holding on MARTINEZ, Chris enforced 10 yards from the SDS19 to the SDS9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+5
45.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offsides (Viliami Fehoko) to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 14
OWN 15
0
45.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 14
OWN 15
-3
47.4%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 12Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 17
OWN 12
0
49.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:0650% → 50%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
50.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
52.2%
Nick Nash pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 6 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
52.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 11 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
55.0%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+5
53.1%
Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 5 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
54.5%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
50.1%
Will Hart punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0854% → 48%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
46.5%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
47.1%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Jay Lenard for 0 yards to the SDSt 4Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 18
OWN 4
+5
49.2%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 13
OWN 9
0
52.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 50 yds, downed at the SJSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4756% → 56%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
56.3%
Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 2 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+10
56.7%
Nick Nash pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 10 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
58.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
58.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
57.7%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
56.3%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SDSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0856% → 49%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
43.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
50
0
40.8%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
50
0
41.9%
Lucas Johnson sacked for 0 yards to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 18
OWN 42
0
47.3%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
50.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Shamar Garrett at the SJSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23MISSED FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 3:0154% → 60%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
54.4%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 5Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+12
53.7%
Nick Nash run for 12 yds to the SJSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
55.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 9 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+1
57.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
56.0%
NASH, Nick pass up the middle incomplete intended for HAMILTON, Isaiah. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on TUMBLIN, Noah enforced 15 yards to the SJS42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.9%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
57.9%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+19
55.4%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 19 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
63.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+4
63.6%
Nick Nash run for 4 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
64.3%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
60.2%
Matt Mercurio 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
28.0%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SJSt 24 Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SJSt 24 Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SJSt 24 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the SDSt 30Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
86.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 14 yds for a TD Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 14 yds for a TD Nick Nash pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 3 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
82.1%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SJSt 17 Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 25 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST down Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-70.8
TD · OT 0:00
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 14 yds for a TD Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 14 yds for a TD Nick Nash pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 3 yds to the SDSt 1
+58.4
KEY PLAY · OT 0:00
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SJSt 24 Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SJSt 24 Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 19 Nick Nash pass incomplete Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SJSt 24 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the SDSt 30
-32.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com