Try the model
TOW

Towson 21 at San Diego State 48

SDSU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · StubHub Center
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadTOW aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreTOW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:46 · Matt Araiza punt for 67 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Pregame prior+29.2Home team on offense+12.6Score differential+6.0Garbage-time factor+3.8Blowout margin−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:36: Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jerry Howard Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Keegan Vaughan KICK) — TOW win probability +1.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:03: Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:06: Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Keegan Vaughan KICK) — TOW win probability +5.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:02: Trenton Thompson 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Araiza Kick) — SDSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:43: Jordan Byrd run for 55 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TOW made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:32SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04TOW 4th & 8 at TOW 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:39SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:49TOW 4th & 10 at TOW 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:48TOW 4th & 10 at TOW 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:41TOW 4th & 2 at TOW 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:46SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 33, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:02TOW 4th & 11 at TOW 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:41TOW 4th & 28 at TOW 7, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:39SDSU 4th & 10 at TOW 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:40TOW 4th & 8 at TOW 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:15TOW 4th & 8 at TOW 27, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at TOW 40, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:44SDSU 4th & 10 at TOW 19, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TOW made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:36TOW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:14SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:56SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:03SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06TOW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:02SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:43SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:25SDSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:59TOW Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2894% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.4%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 20 fumbled, recovered by SDSt Lucas JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
94.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+10
94.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 10 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
94.1%
Matt Araiza punt for 58 yds , D'Ago Hunter returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Tows 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:286% → 7%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
94.1%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 3 yds to the Tows 10Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+4
94.1%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tows 14Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+18
94.1%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jason Epps for 18 yds to the Tows 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
94.1%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 5 yds to the Tows 37Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-3
94.1%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tows 34Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
94.1%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+11
93.3%
Shane McDonough punt for 50 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 11 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:0993% → 92%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
93.3%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+6
93.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 6 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
93.3%
TOWSON Penalty, Offsides (Vinnie Shaffer) to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
93.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 15 yds to the Tows 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
93.4%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the Tows 43Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-4
93.4%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tows 47Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
92.4%
Lucas Johnson pass intercepted return for no gain to the Tows 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 4TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:198% → 10%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
92.3%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+49
92.3%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Thompson IV for 49 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
92.0%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSt 19Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
90.4%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jerry Howard Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Keegan Vaughan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5791% → 90%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
90.9%
BELL, Greg rush up the middle for no gain to the SDS30 (BOWMAN, Marcus). PENALTY SDS Holding on TROMBLEY, Kyle enforced 10 yards from the SDS30 to the SDS20 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
90.8%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
90.7%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+5
89.6%
Matt Araiza punt for 72 yds , D'Ago Hunter returns for 5 yds to the Tows 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2110% → 11%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
89.8%
D'Ago Hunter run for 7 yds to the Tows 20Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+12
89.7%
D'Ago Hunter run for 12 yds to the Tows 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
89.6%
FERGUSON, Chris pass to the right incomplete intended for STREET, Darian thrown to the TOW27. PENALTY TOW Personal Foul on DESIRE, Alex enforced 15 yards from the TOW32 to the TOW17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 25
OWN 17
-2
89.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tows 15 fumbled, recovered by SDSt Garret FountainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0490% → 91%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
89.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the Tows 12Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
89.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 3 yds to the Tows 9Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
89.6%
TOWSON Penalty, Offsides (Ryan Kearney) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
89.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the Tows 3Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
89.8%
JOHNSON, Lucas pass to the right incomplete intended for SHAVERS, Tyrell broken up by COLLINS, Mark at the TOW0. PENALTY Before the snap, SDS Illegal Formation on ULUAVE, Alama enforced 5 yards from the TOW3 to the TOW8. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
91.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:1110% → 10%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
89.8%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 2 yds to the Tows 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+15
89.8%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jason Epps for 15 yds to the Tows 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.6%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for no gain to the Tows 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
89.7%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
90.0%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:49
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+54
89.7%
Shane McDonough punt for 54 yds, downed at the SANDIEGOST 10 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 5:5390% → 92%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
89.7%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 10Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
89.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+9
89.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 9 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
89.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 9 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+12
90.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 12 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
90.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 6 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
90.3%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+5
90.2%
TOWSON Penalty, Offsides (Vinnie Shaffer) to the Tows 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
90.4%
JOHNSON, Lucas pass up the middle incomplete intended for SHAVERS, Tyrell broken up by PEEPLES, Charles at the TOW6. PENALTY TOW Pass Interference on PEEPLES, Charles enforced 15 yards to the TOW31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
90.6%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the Tows 27Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+15
90.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 15 yds to the Tows 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
90.5%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
91.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0310% → 9%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
90.5%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
90.6%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Darian Street for no gain to the Tows 26Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
90.9%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+4
90.9%
Shane McDonough punt for 48 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 4 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
90.7%
TOWSON Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:4591% → 94%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+8
91.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
91.2%
Chance Bell run for 13 yds to the Tows 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
91.4%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Keyvone Bruton for 0 yards to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 19
OWN 47
+25
90.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 25 yds to the Tows 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
91.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 12 yds to the Tows 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
93.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:227% → 7%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.8%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 6 yds to the Tows 31Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
92.7%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tows 33Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
92.7%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Shane McDonough punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5593% → 94%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
93.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
93.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
93.7%
Matt Araiza punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 14TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 1:407% → 13%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
93.3%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 17 yds to the Tows 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.2%
Chris Ferguson sacked by Jonah Tavai and Cameron Thomas for 0 yards to the Tows 33Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+13
93.4%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 13 yds to the Tows 46Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
92.7%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 3 yds to the Tows 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
92.9%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 9 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
92.5%
FERGUSON, Chris pass up the middle incomplete intended for HUNTER, D'Ago thrown to the SDS38. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on OLUBI, Segun enforced at the spot of the foul for 3 yards to the SDS39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
92.5%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
92.6%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jabari Allen for 4 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+7
92.6%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 7 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
92.1%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+24
92.3%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Darian Street for 24 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.2%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Keegan Vaughan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 15PUNT TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5811% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.7%
D'Ago Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tows 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
88.8%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
89.3%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+11
93.6%
Trenton Thompson 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 16INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:137% → 7%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.3%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 8 yds to the Tows 33Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
92.7%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tows 34Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
93.0%
Devin Matthews run for 9 yds to the Tows 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
92.9%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tows 44Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
92.8%
Chris Ferguson pass intercepted return for no gain to the SDSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:0694% → 98%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.9%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 36Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
93.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 9 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+55
97.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 55 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 3:023% → 2%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
97.5%
run for a loss of 15 yards to the Tows 10 fumbled, recovered by Tows Chris FergusonSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 25
OWN 10
-19
97.5%
FERGUSON, Chris pass to the right complete for 19 yards to RUTKOWSKI, Ryan caught at the TOW29 and advanced to the TOW29 (THOMPSON, Trenton). PENALTY TOW Holding on BRYANT, Darian enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the TOW10 to the TOW5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 30
OWN 5
+7
97.6%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to D'Ago Hunter for 7 yds to the Tows 12Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+5
97.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Jonah Tavai) to the Tows 17Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
97.6%
Chris Ferguson sacked by Jonah Tavai and Cameron Thomas for 0 yards to the Tows 7Similar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 28
OWN 7
+16
97.9%
Shane McDonough punt for 39 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 16 yds to the Tows 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0298% → 98%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
98.0%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the Tows 30Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
97.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
97.9%
Matt Araiza 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.2%
TOWSON Penalty, False Start (D'Ago Hunter) to the Tows 20Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+7
98.2%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 7 yds to the Tows 27Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Shane McDonough punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the SDSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:1598% → 100%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
98.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
98.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+61
98.4%
Chance Bell run for 61 yds to the Tows 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.6%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tows 22Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
99.6%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
99.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Jalil Lecky) to the Tows 27Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Shane McDonough punt for 56 yds, downed at the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 10:31100% → 100%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.8%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
99.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+15
99.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Brionne Penny for 15 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 7 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-6
99.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+13
99.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Brionne Penny for 13 yds to the Tows 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the Tows 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the Tows 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+7
99.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Brionne Penny for 7 yds to the Tows 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+5
99.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the Tows 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the Tows 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
99.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the Tows 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+7
99.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the Tows 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the Tows 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
99.8%
Lucky Avinger run for 1 yd to the Tows 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-3
99.8%
Lucky Avinger run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tows 19Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
99.9%
Matt Araiza 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 24TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jason Epps for 3 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Chris Ferguson pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
99.9%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Thompson IV for 9 yds for a TD, (Keegan Vaughan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 64 yds · 5:59100% → 100%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
William Haskell run for 7 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
William Haskell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.9%
William Haskell run for 8 yds to the Tows 44Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Lucky Avinger run for 5 yds to the Tows 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
99.9%
William Haskell pass complete to Brionne Penny for 20 yds to the Tows 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the Tows 18Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+7
100.0%
Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the Tows 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:06
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Keegan Vaughan KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q3 14:02
Trenton Thompson 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Araiza Kick)
+4.4
TD · Q3 10:43
Jordan Byrd run for 55 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com