Try the model
SDSU

San Diego State 28 at Hawai'i 14

HAW
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Aloha Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:45 · Tanner Blain punt for 54 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense−4.3Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−0.7Pregame prior−7.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:44: Melvin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +6.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 1:40: Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 58 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:13: Max Wittek run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK) — HAW win probability +13.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:00: Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:02: Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19 — SDSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 10SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 9:05HAW 4th & 17 at HAW 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:45SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:59HAW 4th & 18 at HAW 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:57SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:37SDSU 4th & 7 at HAW 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:26HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:23SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 49, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:30HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:29HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:16SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:51HAW 4th & 14 at SDSU 36, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:33SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:30HAW 4th & 4 at SDSU 42, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−1.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:07SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−4.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:33HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:53HAW 4th & 12 at HAW 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:09SDSU 4th & 8 at HAW 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:02HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 22, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:59SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 19, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:44SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:10SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:44HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:40SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:13HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:00SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1658% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
41.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
41.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 11 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
41.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
41.7%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
41.7%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
41.7%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+34
41.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 34 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
41.5%
Max Wittek pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 6 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
41.6%
Steven Lakalaka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+3
41.5%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 3 yds Quinton Pedroza fumbled, forced by Christian Heyward, recovered by SDSt Christian HeywardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:2859% → 61%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
40.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+2
40.9%
Marcus Stamps run for 2 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
40.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 14 yds to the Hawa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
38.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
39.4%
Steven Lakalaka run for 3 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+22
39.4%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 22 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
39.8%
Max Wittek pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
39.8%
Steven Lakalaka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-9
39.7%
Max Wittek sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 9 yards to the Hawa 36Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 17
OWN 36
+35
39.3%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 50 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 35 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
37.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+6
37.1%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 9
50
0
37.0%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 9
50
-5
37.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+1
37.3%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 13
OWN 46
-5
37.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
37.6%
Tanner Blain punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
37.3%
Steven Lakalaka run for 5 yds to the Hawa 10Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+2
37.4%
Steven Lakalaka run for 2 yds to the Hawa 12Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+21
37.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 21 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
37.6%
Steven Lakalaka run for no gain to the Hawa 33Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
37.5%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by JJ WhittakerSimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-8
37.3%
Max Wittek sacked by Calvin Munson and Noble Hall for a loss of 8 yards to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 18
OWN 25
+12
37.2%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 54 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 12 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1465% → 65%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
34.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
34.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-1
34.2%
Marcus Stamps run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+5
34.6%
Tanner Blain punt for 40 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 5 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3235% → 43%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.1%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dakota Torres for 9 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
35.5%
Melvin Davis run for 7 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
36.0%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 1 yd to the Hawa 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
36.0%
Melvin Davis run for 2 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+52
35.9%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 52 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
36.7%
Melvin Davis run for 3 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.1%
Melvin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
40.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+18
39.8%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 18 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
38.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+2
38.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
38.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (Maxwell Smith) to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+2
39.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 13
50
+6
38.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Curtis Anderson III for 6 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
38.5%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Jemond HazelySimilar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
39.3%
Tanner Blain punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
39.3%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Isaiah BernardSimilar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
39.3%
Melvin Davis run for 5 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
38.7%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Steven Lakalaka, broken up by Calvin MunsonSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
38.3%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 54 yds, downed at the SDSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0062% → 63%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
38.0%
Chase Price run for no gain to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
38.1%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+14
37.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Price for 14 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
36.2%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-3
36.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+11
37.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 11 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+1
37.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 42 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 1 yd to the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
37.7%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 10 yds to the Hawa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
37.8%
Melvin Davis run for 3 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
37.9%
Melvin Davis run for 2 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
37.4%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dakota Torres, broken up by Na'im McGeeSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
36.6%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 57 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for no gain to the SDSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:1564% → 76%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
36.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
35.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+58
23.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 58 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
26.0%
Max Wittek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
26.0%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by Randy RicksSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
25.5%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Randy RicksSimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+8
25.3%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 54 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 8 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4676% → 76%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
24.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 6 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-2
23.6%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Jahlani Tavai and Luke Shawley for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-2
22.7%
Chase Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 35 Maxwell Smith fumbled,Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+13
23.6%
Tanner Blain punt for 48 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 13 yds to the Hawa 30 Nick Nelson fumbled, forced by Parker Baldwin, recovered by Hawa Nick NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
23.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
26.3%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by JJ WhittakerSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
26.0%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+26
25.3%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 26 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
27.3%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-4
27.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 36Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 14
OPP 36
0
25.6%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
Q3 14:51
4TH & 14
OPP 36
-4
24.9%
Max Wittek sacked by Jon Sanchez for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
21.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
21.8%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+1
21.9%
Maxwell Smith run for 1 yd to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+18
22.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 43 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 18 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0023% → 24%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
22.6%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 6 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
23.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Christian Heyward) to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
24.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (JJ Whittaker) to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
24.6%
Melvin Davis run for 6 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
24.8%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Isaiah Bernard, broken up by Pierre RomainSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
24.1%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Melvin DavisSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
23.8%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 22 yds, downed at the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
19.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 21Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
19.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+4
19.5%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 4 yds Jemond Hazely fumbled, recovered by Hawa Marrell JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:4124% → 38%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
23.7%
Melvin Davis run for 12 yds to the SDSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
23.7%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
23.7%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dakota Torres for 6 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+6
23.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (JJ Whittaker) to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
23.8%
Melvin Davis run for 1 yd to the SDSt 1Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.7%
Melvin Davis run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.5%
Max Wittek run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
31.6%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 10 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
31.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Pearce Slater) to the SDSt 8Similar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 18
OWN 8
0
31.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 8Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+1
31.9%
N/A run for 1 yd to the SDSt 9Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 17
OWN 9
+2
32.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 15
OWN 11
0
33.3%
Tanner Blain punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
33.3%
Max Wittek sacked by Christian Heyward for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+5
32.1%
Melvin Davis run for 5 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+6
32.5%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 6 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
32.9%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 4:4271% → 92%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
28.9%
Chase Price run for 14 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
27.9%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
27.7%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+36
28.0%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 36 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
25.1%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah Holder, broken up by Lance WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
25.2%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+3
25.7%
Marcus Stamps run for 3 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+5
25.9%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (Penitito Faalologo) to the Hawa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
23.3%
Marcus Stamps run for 1 yd to the Hawa 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+5
23.3%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the Hawa 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+5
24.0%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive holding (5 Yards) to the Hawa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
23.3%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Dakota Torres for 9 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
13.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Steven Lakalaka for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 33Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
13.6%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 7 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
14.3%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 6 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
14.8%
Melvin Davis run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
15.2%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 5 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-5
15.6%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Asotui Eli) to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
14.9%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Steven Lakalaka for no gain to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-2
14.6%
Ikaika Woolsey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 49 Ikaika Woolsey fumbled, recovered by Hawa Steven LakalakaSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
13.4%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26PUNT
15 plays · 39 yds · 5:5393% → 97%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
6.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
6.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
7.0%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 13 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
6.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
6.3%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
6.5%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 5 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
6.2%
Chase Price run for 8 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+3
6.0%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
6.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 4
OPP 37
-3
3.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 40Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+4
3.1%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 3
OPP 36
-5
2.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Hawa 41Similar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
2.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 27INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.9%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
2.8%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dakota Torres for 2 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
2.8%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by JJ WhittakerSimilar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+19
2.8%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 19 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
3.0%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by Calvin MunsonSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
3.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
3.1%
Max Wittek pass intercepted Damontae Kazee return for no gain to the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
2.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+3
2.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+3
2.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
2.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 33 yds, downed at the Hawa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 29INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
2.4%
Max Wittek pass intercepted JJ Whittaker return for 20 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:00
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q3 7:13
Max Wittek run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q2 1:40
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 58 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com