2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Tanner Blain punt for 44 yds, downed at the Wyom 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:09: Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 7 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:44: Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) to the Wyom 10 for a 1ST down — SDSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:29: Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 4 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:50: Donny Hageman 26 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:33: Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WYO made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 33, tiedClose callPunted · 89.1% before the snapGo for it89.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:46WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.6%average punt
- Q1 7:39WYO 4th & 15 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snapGo for it11.7%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.9%average punt
- Q2 15:00WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.2%−0.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q2 13:39SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 41, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it89.6%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.2%average punt
- Q2 12:43WYO 4th & 16 at WYO 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it9.9%−0.815% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.7%average punt
- Q2 5:55WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.547% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%average punt
- Q2 3:51SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 30, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snapGo for it89.1%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.4%average punt
- Q3 11:49WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 43, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q3 4:50SDSU 4th & 9 at WYO 9, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.0%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call97.2%89% to makePunt95.8%−1.4average punt
- Q3 4:50WYO 4th & 2 at SDSU 36, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%57% to convertField goal1.7%−0.442% to makePunt1.6%−0.5average punt
- Q3 4:50WYO 4th & 1 at SDSU 21, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.2%71% to convertField goal1.7%−0.574% to makePunt0.3%−1.8average punt
- Q4 13:30WYO 4th & 5 at SDSU 14, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call1.2%84% to makePunt0.4%−0.7average punt
- Q4 3:02WYO 4th & 10 at SDSU 44, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 7:39SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.9%97% to makeGo for two87.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:09SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:29SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:33SDSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:02SDSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSDSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
WYODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
89.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 5 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-4
89.9%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Na'im McGee for a loss of 4 yards to the Wyom 24Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
90.0%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD7 plays · 57 yds · 3:3690% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
SDSUDrive 5TD11 plays · 79 yds · 4:4089% → 91%
Q1 4:49
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+25
89.0%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 10
50
+13
89.2%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 13 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+25
89.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) to the Wyom 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
90.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 7 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0910% → 10%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
90.1%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-7
90.1%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Alex Barrett for a loss of 7 yards to the Wyom 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
90.3%
Ethan Wood punt for 41 yds , Mikah Holder returns for no gain to the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
90.0%
Brian Hill run for 5 yds to the Wyom 28 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, PFR (15 Yards) to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
89.7%
HILL, Brian rush for 4 yards to the WY47 (FELY, Jake), PENALTY WY holding 10 yards to the WY33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+10
90.0%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to James Price for 10 yds to the Wyom 43Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-6
89.8%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Alex Barrett for a loss of 6 yards to the Wyom 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FUMBLE10 plays · 66 yds · 3:5390% → 91%
Q2 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+5
90.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 34 yds Eric Judge fumbled, forced by Marcus Epps, recovered by Wyom Robert Priester , return for 5 yds to the Wyom 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 5:55
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+5
91.0%
Ethan Wood punt for 47 yds , Mikah Holder returns for 5 yds to the SDSt 26 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, BL; (10 Yards) to the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q2 3:51
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+7
90.7%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 7 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-5
90.6%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Carl Granderson for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
90.0%
Tanner Blain punt for 43 yds , Andrew Wingard returns for no gain to the Wyom 24 Andrew Wingard fumbled, recovered by SDSt Jeff OverbaughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD5 plays · 24 yds · 1:1592% → 97%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
92.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) to the Wyom 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+11
92.0%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 11 yds to the Wyom 4Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.6%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 4 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14INT5 plays · 23 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
96.0%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 19 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+5
96.0%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 5 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+10
95.8%
Cameron Coffman pass intercepted JJ Whittaker return for 10 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15FUMBLE4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.2%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey, broken up by D.J. MaySimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
97.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 30 Donnel Pumphrey fumbled, forced by Lucas Wacha, recovered by Wyom D.J. May , return for no gain to the Wyom 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
96.3%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to James Price for 8 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17FG13 plays · 70 yds · 5:0397% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18FG14 plays · 56 yds · 6:202% → 1%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
98.1%
Brian Hill run for 11 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-1
98.6%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD12 plays · 67 yds · 4:5799% → 100%
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+24
99.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+6
99.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 6 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
99.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 10 yds to the Wyom 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+14
99.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 11 yds to the Wyom 5 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (3 Yards) to the Wyom 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20INT6 plays · 52 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
99.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 30 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+29
99.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 29 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-9
99.9%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Jon Sanchez for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+10
99.9%
Cameron Coffman pass intercepted Malik Smith return for 10 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21TD7 plays · 89 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by Derek BabiashSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Jacob Hollister, broken up by Derek BabiashSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by Noble HallSimilar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Ethan Wood punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Damontae Kazee at the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:29
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 4 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q1 0:09
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 7 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+2.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:44
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) to the Wyom 10 for a 1ST down
+2