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AF

Air Force 24 at San Diego State 27

SDSU
2015 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2015 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:23 · Dakota Gordon run for 23 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+4.1Home team on offense−6.8Garbage-time factor−4.1Score differential−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Blowout margin−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:34: Timothy McVey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +14.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:58: Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +18.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:22: Rashaad Penny run for 28 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +28.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:49: Timothy McVey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +25.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:10: Donny Hageman 46 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:51SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52AF 4th & 9 at AF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:23SDSU 4th & 24 at AF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    60.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:39AF 4th & 6 at AF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:32AF 4th & 4 at SDSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:54SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:42AF 4th & 3 at SDSU 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:44SDSU 4th & 4 at AF 5, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−7.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:23SDSU 4th & 1 at AF 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−4.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−14.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:04AF 4th & 8 at AF 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:49AF 4th & 2 at SDSU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−16.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:07SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−2.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:04AF 4th & 4 at AF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−2.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:10SDSU 4th & 14 at AF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−5.5
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−17.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:35AF 4th & 5 at AF 30, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:36SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−2.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00AF 4th & 6 at SDSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−4.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:01AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:34AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:58SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:22SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:49AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0463% → 63%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
63.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+13
63.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
63.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
63.2%
Christian Chapman run for no gain to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
63.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 5 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-5
63.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
62.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5337% → 37%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
62.9%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
62.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-3
62.9%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
63.2%
Luke Strebel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mikah Holder at the SDSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2163% → 62%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+30
63.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 30 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
63.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 27
OPP 43
+5
63.0%
Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-15
63.4%
Chapman, Christian pass complete to Holder, Mikah for 28 yards to the AIRFORCE0, PENALTY SANDIEGOST illegal block 15 yards to the AIRFORCE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 22
OPP 38
-2
62.9%
Chase Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 24
OPP 40
0
62.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3438% → 37%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
62.4%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
62.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
62.1%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
61.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
62.1%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+52
62.6%
Luke Strebel punt for 52 yds , Mikah Holder returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 10 Mikah Holder fumbled, recovered by AFA Jacob OnyechiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3039% → 43%
Q1 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
60.8%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
56.8%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:4058% → 64%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
58.2%
Chase Price run for 9 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+13
58.8%
Chase Price run for 13 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
58.4%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
58.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+11
58.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 11 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
58.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
58.4%
Chase Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+24
64.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 24 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:1239% → 40%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
61.2%
Karson Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+9
60.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
59.9%
Tyler Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
59.6%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 6 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
59.2%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
59.1%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-2
58.9%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
60.0%
Luke Strebel punt for 27 yds, downed at the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2862% → 61%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
61.9%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
62.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 5 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
61.5%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.1%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
63.0%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
61.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Daniel BrunskillSimilar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-2
60.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 51 yds , Garrett Brown returns for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FG
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:0041% → 45%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
59.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+11
59.1%
Tyler Williams run for 11 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+65
58.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 65 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
55.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
55.8%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the SDSt 3Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
56.6%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 4:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
55.5%
Luke Strebel 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:4458% → 62%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
58.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+40
56.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 40 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
61.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 14 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
61.2%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
60.9%
Christian Chapman run for 4 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
57.3%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Jemond HazelySimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
62.2%
Donny Hageman 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2743% → 42%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
57.4%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
56.7%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
58.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1043% → 63%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.4%
Tyler Williams run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
55.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
55.7%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+34
55.8%
Jacobi Owens rush for 2 yards to the AF40, fumble forced by Alex Barrett, fumble by J. Owens recovered by AF Garrett Griffin at SDSU28, 1ST DOWN AFSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
52.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-2
52.5%
Tyler Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+9
54.2%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
52.0%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+10
52.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.0%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:1742% → 63%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
42.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+7
43.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
42.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+13
41.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 13 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
44.4%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 8
50
+5
44.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+7
45.2%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
44.9%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
46.4%
Chase Price run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+5
43.3%
Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+23
41.3%
Dakota Gordon run for 23 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
45.0%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
44.8%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.4%
Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4145% → 43%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
55.4%
Timothy McVey run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
53.9%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
54.4%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-4
51.9%
Tyler Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
57.1%
Luke Strebel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mikah Holder at the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:2559% → 86%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
59.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+3
58.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+44
57.3%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 44 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
85.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 28 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:1724% → 48%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+54
76.0%
Karson Roberts run for 51 yds to the SANDIEGOST 5 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (3 Yards) to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
73.9%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.0%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
75.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the SDSt 5Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
76.6%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 2Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.6%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1959% → 55%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
59.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-1
59.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
56.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+3
54.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 48 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5446% → 44%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.7%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
53.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
53.6%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-3
55.9%
Luke Strebel punt for 41 yds , Mikah Holder returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:4858% → 71%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.0%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+48
58.3%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 48 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
64.9%
Chase Price run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 16
OPP 31
-11
62.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 27
OPP 42
0
60.7%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 27
OPP 42
+13
58.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 13 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
70.9%
Donny Hageman 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2531% → 28%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
67.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
68.8%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for no gain to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
71.9%
Luke Strebel punt for 47 yds, downed at the SDSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 2:4079% → 92%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
79.4%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
84.5%
Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+13
84.0%
Christian Chapman run for 13 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
86.6%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
89.5%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+1
92.1%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 5
50
-5
92.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
92.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 33 yds, downed at the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:3017% → 19%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
82.8%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 13 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
80.9%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
78.0%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
79.0%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 4 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
78.4%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
80.7%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:22
Rashaad Penny run for 28 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+28.6
TD · Q4 11:49
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-25
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com