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SDSU

San Diego State 41 at Colorado State 17

CSU
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-0.3CSU 39.6%Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD,(Donny Hageman KICK)AWAY 7 - HOME 0 · Q1 11:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:34 · Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.2Pregame prior−9.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 35 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +5.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:12: Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 32 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +14.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:34: Nick Stevens pass intercepted for a TD Damontae Kazee return for 55 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:51: Nick Stevens pass complete to Danny Nwosu for 14 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:10: Donnel Pumphrey run for 64 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:34SDSU 4th & 1 at CSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:27SDSU 4th & 5 at CSU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:45SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:48CSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.6%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:22SDSU 4th & 3 at CSU 3, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−7.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:34SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:12CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:04CSU 4th & 12 at midfield, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:48CSU 4th & 27 at CSU 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:46SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 19, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:24CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 43, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:34SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:12SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:34SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:51CSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:10SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:55SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:2660% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+43
39.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 43 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
39.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+8
39.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
39.9%
SMITH, Maxwell rush for no gain to the CS7 (FOSTER, Martavius;LOVINGOOD, Josh), PENALTY CS offside (JAMES, Cory) 3 yards to the CS4, 1ST DOWN SD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the ColSt 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
39.9%
Maxwell Smith run for 3 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
39.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q1 11:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2FUMBLE
13 plays · 75 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
39.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Xavier Williams for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
40.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 8 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
40.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
40.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 2
50
+6
40.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 6 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
40.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 16 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
40.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 12 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
40.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
40.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
40.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
40.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSt 2Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
40.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd Jasen Oden Jr. fumbled, forced by Damontae Kazee, recovered by SDSt Trey LomaxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
39.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
39.2%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Jemond HazelySimilar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+29
39.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 29 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
38.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-4
38.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 11
50
+6
38.6%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 6 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
38.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:2439% → 45%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
38.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 32 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
40.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
40.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
40.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nu'uvali Fa'apito for 4 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
40.7%
STEVENS, Nick pass incomplete to HANSLEY, Joe, PENALTY SD pass interference (SMITH, Malik) 15 yards to the SD20, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
40.7%
STEVENS, Nick pass incomplete to HANSLEY, Joe, PENALTY CS pass interference (HANSLEY, Joe) 15 yards to the SD35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+35
46.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 35 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
44.7%
DAVIS, Braxton kickoff 65 yards to the SD0, touchback, PENALTY CS offside (JOHNSON, Olabisi) 5 yards to the CS30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
43.7%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Price for 5 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
43.1%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-5
43.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Chase Price) to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-2
44.4%
Dakota Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
45.0%
Tanner Blain punt for 52 yds, downed at the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:4546% → 49%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
45.6%
Craig Leonard run for 8 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-10
46.5%
LEONARD, Craig rush for 4 yards to the CS32 (WHITTAKER, J.J.), PENALTY CS holding (WALKER, Steven) 10 yards to the CS18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+9
45.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 9 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+13
45.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 13 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
46.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
50
+15
47.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Jake Fely) to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
48.0%
Craig Leonard run for 7 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+1
48.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
47.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
49.3%
Wyatt Bryan 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 83 yds · 5:2151% → 56%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
48.7%
SMITH, Maxwell pass incomplete to HOLDER, Mikah, PENALTY CS pass interference (MATTHEWS, Trent) 15 yards to the SD29, 1ST DOWN SD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
48.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+12
48.2%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 12 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
46.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 8 yds to the COLOST 49 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (DeAndre Elliott) to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
45.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+1
45.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+23
46.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 23 yds to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
45.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
45.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 2Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
46.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 3Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
43.9%
Donny Hageman 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
48.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 35 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
51.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
50.1%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Malik Smith return for no gain to the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4055% → 53%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
45.4%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+6
45.2%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
45.2%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
45.3%
Chase Price run for no gain to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
46.1%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
47.4%
Tanner Blain punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0550% → 52%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
50.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 14 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
52.1%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Kendrick Mathis return for 16 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0858% → 64%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
42.0%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 15 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+54
36.0%
Donny Hageman 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Danny Nwosu for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
44.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
43.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for no gain to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
41.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 55 yds, downed at the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 6:5359% → 77%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
41.3%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+4
41.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+4
42.5%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to David Wells for 4 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
41.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+11
41.3%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 11 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
40.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+15
41.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 15 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
39.0%
Chase Price run for no gain to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
39.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 10 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
38.5%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+8
38.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 8 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
37.6%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Dakota GordonSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
23.3%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 32 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14INT TD
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3825% → 14%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
24.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 4 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
24.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Kivon CartwrightSimilar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
23.2%
Deonte Clyburn run for 13 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
26.3%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
25.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard Higgins, broken up by Na'im McGeeSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+55
13.8%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted for a TD Damontae Kazee return for 55 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4314% → 26%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
14.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 14 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
15.2%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
15.0%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+11
14.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 11 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
15.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 9 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+20
16.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 20 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
16.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
26.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Danny Nwosu for 14 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4178% → 92%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
22.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 11 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
7.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 64 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
9.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Steven Walker for 15 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
10.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+12
10.4%
STEVENS, Nick pass incomplete to HANSLEY, Joe (WHITTAKER, J.J.), PENALTY SD pass interference (WHITTAKER, J.J.) 12 yards to the SD48, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
10.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 12
50
0
10.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 12
50
0
10.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Steven Walker, broken up by JJ WhittakerSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 12
50
0
9.7%
Hayden Hunt punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 4:0693% → 99%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
6.9%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+46
6.9%
Dakota Gordon run for 46 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
6.2%
Chase Price run for 9 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+4
6.2%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
6.2%
Chase Price run for no gain to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
6.2%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
0.8%
Chase Price run for 16 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
1.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 1 yd to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
1.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 4 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+14
1.7%
STEVENS, Nick pass incomplete to HIGGINS, Rashard, PENALTY SD pass interference (WHITTAKER, J.J.) 14 yards to the CS33, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe Hansley, broken up by Na'im McGeeSimilar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
1.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Sammie Long IVSimilar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-15
1.8%
STEVENS, Nick pass complete to LONG, Sammie for 16 yards to the CS49, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CS pass interference (LONG, Sammie) 15 yards to the CS18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 25
OWN 18
-2
1.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 27
OWN 16
0
1.7%
Hayden Hunt punt for 59 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for no gain to the SDSt 14 Lloyd Mills fumbled, recovered by SDSt Lloyd MillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
0.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+1
0.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+2
0.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
0.7%
Tanner Blain punt for 40 yds, downed at the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
1.0%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Danny NwosuSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
1.0%
Deron Thompson run for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
1.0%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Sammie Long IV, broken up by Kendrick MathisSimilar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
1.0%
Hayden Hunt punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Mikah Holder at the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
0.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+19
0.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 19 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.4%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
0.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:10
Donnel Pumphrey run for 64 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q3 6:12
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 32 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q3 3:34
Nick Stevens pass intercepted for a TD Damontae Kazee return for 55 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com