Try the model
AF

Air Force 14 at San Diego State 30

SDSU
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 21, 2014 · Qualcomm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.9SDSU 99.0%Kale Pearson pass intercepted for a TDCalvin Munson return for 56 yds for aTD, (Donny Hageman KICK)AWAY 14 - HOME 30 · Q4 2:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:44 · Kale Pearson pass intercepted for a TD Calvin Munson return for 56 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense+30.0Pregame prior+0.4Garbage-time factor+6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+18.1Score differential+11.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:29: Donny Hageman 36 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:58: Garrett Griffin 74 Yd pass from Kale Pearson (Will Conant Kick) — AF win probability +7.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:17: D.J. Johnson 1 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick) — AF win probability +14.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:13: Donny Hageman 21 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:05: Donnel Pumphrey run for 12 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +14.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:05AF 4th & 6 at AF 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:46SDSU 4th & 3 at AF 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−3.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:29SDSU 4th & 12 at AF 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−1.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−5.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:58SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 20, up 6
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:04AF 4th & 10 at SDSU 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:28SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 8, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 6 at AF 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:13SDSU 4th & 4 at AF 4, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−11.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:13AF 4th & 20 at AF 29, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−4.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:48SDSU 4th & 3 at AF 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%−1.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−10.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 2 at SDSU 47, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.1%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:46SDSU 4th & 8 at AF 9, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−6.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:46AF 4th & 8 at AF 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:52SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 40, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:07AF 4th & 7 at SDSU 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:39SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:39AF 4th & 1 at SDSU 46, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:59SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:58AF Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:17AF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:05SDSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:44SDSU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:0159% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+35
59.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 35 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
59.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
59.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+14
59.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 14 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
59.1%
Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+12
59.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 12 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
59.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the AFA 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
59.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
61.0%
Adam Roberts 14 Yd pass from Quinn Kaehler (Donny Hageman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
61.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 11 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
61.2%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
61.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the AFA 11Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
61.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted, touchback. Weston Steelhammer return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
61.4%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 19Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
61.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 5 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
61.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
61.8%
Will Conant punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 7:0762% → 65%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
62.0%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
62.4%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
62.2%
Marcus Stamps run for 2 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
62.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 15 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
62.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
62.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 10 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
62.7%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-5
62.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+14
62.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 14 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
62.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
62.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
62.5%
Ezell Ruffin run for no gain to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 0:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
65.1%
Donny Hageman 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:4635% → 36%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
64.9%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
64.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-5
65.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+33
66.0%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 33 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
64.2%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the SDSt 40 Shayne Davern fumbled, forced by Calvin Munson, recovered by SDSt Trey Lomax , return for 5 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:0767% → 73%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
66.5%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
66.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 6 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+32
66.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 32 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
66.8%
Chase Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 11
OPP 18
-1
66.8%
Chase Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 12
OPP 19
0
66.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+36
73.4%
Donny Hageman 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:3129% → 36%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
71.3%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+5
71.5%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+74
64.1%
Garrett Griffin 74 Yd pass from Kale Pearson (Will Conant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
65.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 15Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-5
65.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 20 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SDSt 10Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 14
OWN 10
-6
65.3%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Troy Timmerman for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 4Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 20
OWN 4
+16
64.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 16 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+6
64.1%
Joel Alesi punt for 34 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 6 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.7%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett Griffin, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
63.1%
Devin Rushing run for no gain to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+10
64.2%
Kale Pearson run for 10 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
62.7%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
62.7%
Colton Huntsman run for 5 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-2
62.6%
Devin Rushing run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 5
OPP 33
-5
64.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
65.2%
Will Conant punt for 34 yds, downed at the SDSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
68.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 8
0
68.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
67.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
66.2%
Joel Alesi punt for 34 yds, downed at the SDSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:1637% → 50%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
63.1%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
63.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 6 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+6
63.0%
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
61.7%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+12
62.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 12 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
61.7%
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+10
64.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 10 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.6%
D.J. Johnson 1 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:0057% → 59%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
56.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+50
59.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 50 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
53.3%
Devin Rushing run for 3 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+8
53.4%
Kale Pearson run for 8 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.1%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
52.3%
Devin Rushing run for 12 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
51.1%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
51.1%
Colton Huntsman pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by J.J. WhittakerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+3
52.4%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
53.8%
Will Conant punt for 33 yds, downed at the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2355% → 64%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
54.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 21Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
54.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+25
52.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 25 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
58.1%
Donnel Pumphrey pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+45
57.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 45 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
59.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
59.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
57.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
63.6%
Donny Hageman 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 36%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Shayne DavernSimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
61.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
59.4%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
58.3%
PEARSON, Kale rush for loss of 4 yards to the AF35 (GALEA, Cody;SMITH, Malik), PENALTY AF holding 10 yards to the AF29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 20
OWN 29
0
60.8%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Marcus HendricksSimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 20
OWN 29
0
61.5%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett Brown, broken up by Brandon PorterSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 20
OWN 29
0
62.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 20
OWN 29
0
63.7%
Will Conant punt for 55 yds, downed at the SDSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 4:4362% → 82%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
62.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 14 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
62.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 14 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
65.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+16
66.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 16 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
67.2%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the AFA 28 Chase Price fumbled, forced by Christian Spears, recovered by SDSt Chase PriceSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+3
67.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
65.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+8
63.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 8 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
67.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
67.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+12
82.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 12 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0521% → 21%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
79.2%
Devin Rushing run for 6 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
78.0%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
78.1%
Devin Rushing run for 1 yd to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
78.4%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+5
78.6%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 5 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-1
79.3%
Devin Rushing run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:1183% → 84%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
83.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
83.1%
Chase Price run for 13 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
83.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+9
83.8%
Chase Price run for 9 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
83.8%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-5
83.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
83.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+15
82.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 15 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
83.8%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
83.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
83.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Jemond HazelySimilar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
83.9%
Donny Hageman 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Marcus Hendricks, broken up by Josh GavertSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
84.9%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
85.7%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Cody Apfel, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
86.4%
Will Conant punt for 43 yds, downed at the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
84.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
85.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+1
84.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 1 yd to the SDSt 40 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
83.8%
Joel Alesi punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:0014% → 16%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
86.2%
Devin Rushing run for 7 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
84.2%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
84.7%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Devin Rushing for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
83.1%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
82.6%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
82.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
82.3%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
82.6%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
83.1%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
84.4%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:5292% → 93%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
91.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
91.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-5
92.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+1
92.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
93.1%
Joel Alesi punt for 28 yds , Garrett Brown returns for no gain to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24INT TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:486% → 1%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
94.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 13 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
93.9%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
94.1%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+56
99.0%
Kale Pearson pass intercepted for a TD Calvin Munson return for 56 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25FUMBLE
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.1%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
99.1%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
99.2%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.1%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 9 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
99.0%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
99.1%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
99.0%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 8 yds Garrett Brown fumbled, forced by Josh Gavert, recovered by SDSt Damontae Kazee , return for 7 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:05
Donnel Pumphrey run for 12 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+14.9
TD · Q2 0:17
D.J. Johnson 1 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick)
-14.8
TD · Q2 9:58
Garrett Griffin 74 Yd pass from Kale Pearson (Will Conant Kick)
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com