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SJSU

San José State 7 at San Diego State 38

SDSU
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:24 · Joel Alesi punt for 30 yds, downed at the SJSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense+31.7Pregame prior+12.9Score differential+26.0Blowout margin+10.2Garbage-time factor+9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:17: Donnel Pumphrey run for 20 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:21: Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:37: Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:17: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19 — SDSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:56: Donnel Pumphrey run for 35 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:19SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:17SJSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:21SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:37SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 20, down 21
    Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:38SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:17SJSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 4, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.4%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:56SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:32SDSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 34, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:15SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 35, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:04SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 29, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:24SDSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 32, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00SJSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:54SDSU 4th & 24 at SDSU 11, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:02SDSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 6, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:02SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 39, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:42SDSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 24, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 8:17SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:21SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:37SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:56SDSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:54SDSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:57SJSU Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
83.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
83.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+38
83.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 38 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
83.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
83.0%
Dakota Gordon run for 3 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
83.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 30
-5
83.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
83.0%
Joel Alesi punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
82.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
82.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
82.1%
Mitch Ravizza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
82.1%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:5082% → 83%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
82.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
82.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Quinn KaehlerSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+9
81.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 9 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
82.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 16 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
83.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 20 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Mitch Ravizza pass complete to Hansell Wilson for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
82.7%
Mitch Ravizza run for 16 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
82.4%
Blake Jurich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
82.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+9
82.3%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 9 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
82.2%
Blake Jurich pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
82.2%
Blake Jurich run for 4 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+1
82.2%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Billy Freeman for 1 yd to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
82.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 37 yds, downed at the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 99 yds · 4:4982% → 86%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
82.3%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+1
82.3%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 6Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+10
82.0%
KAEHLER, Quinn pass incomplete to RUFFIN, Ezell, PENALTY SJ holding 10 yards to the SDSU16, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
82.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Chase PriceSimilar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+8
82.3%
Chase Price run for 8 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+3
82.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 3 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
82.4%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+61
82.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 61 yds to the SJSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
83.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
82.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 7 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
84.8%
Chris Kearney pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
84.9%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 4 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+22
84.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 37 yds SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 5:2487% → 93%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
86.6%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
86.7%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
86.4%
Dakota Gordon run for 3 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
86.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
86.7%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+15
86.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 15 yds to the SJSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
86.7%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+8
86.7%
Chase Price run for 8 yds to the SJSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
86.7%
Chase Price run for 8 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
86.7%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.4%
Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
92.2%
Jarrod Lawson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 12Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+5
92.3%
Jarrod Lawson run for 5 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+3
92.3%
Blake Jurich run for 3 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
92.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 40 yds, downed at the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
94.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
93.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
93.5%
Joel Alesi punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:237% → 6%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
92.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
92.4%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 6 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
92.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
92.4%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+12
92.5%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 12 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
91.8%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 8 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+4
91.8%
Blake Jurich run for 4 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
91.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 11 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
91.8%
Blake Jurich run for 1 yd to the SDSt 4Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.4%
Jarrod Lawson run for no gain to the SDSt 4Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.8%
Blake Jurich pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
93.7%
Michael Carrizosa 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
94.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
94.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-9
94.3%
Blake Jurich sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
94.7%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3196% → 99%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
95.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+14
96.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 14 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
96.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+35
99.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 35 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Blake Jurich pass incomplete to Tyler Winston, broken up by J.J. WhittakerSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 0
0
98.9%
Blake Jurich pass incomplete to Tyler Winston SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Blake Jurich pass incomplete to Jabari CarrSimilar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
99.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 20 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-2
99.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 34Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+6
99.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Blake Jurich pass incomplete to Hansell Wilson, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+3
99.3%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 3 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.4%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Adam Roberts, broken up by Jimmy PruittSimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Chase PriceSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Joel Alesi punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
99.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
99.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
99.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+4
99.6%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.6%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
99.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Dakota GordonSimilar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-8
99.6%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Isaiah Irving for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 15
OPP 32
0
99.6%
Joel Alesi punt for 30 yds, downed at the SJSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
99.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+15
99.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Chris Kearney for 15 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Chris Kearney for 8 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+31
99.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 31 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Jarrod Lawson run for no gain to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Jarrod Lawson, broken up by Josh GavertSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-8
99.7%
Joe Gray sacked by Jon Sanchez for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.8%
Chase Price run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-10
99.8%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Cedric Lousi for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 24
OWN 11
0
99.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
99.8%
Joel Alesi punt for 34 yds , Maurice McKnight returns for no gain to the SJSt 44 Maurice McKnight fumbled, recovered by SDSt Lucky RadleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 4:13100% → 100%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.8%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+4
99.8%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
99.8%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
99.8%
Chase Price run for 24 yds to the SJSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.8%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.8%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
99.8%
Chase Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 6Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
99.9%
Donny Hageman 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 2 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
99.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 9 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Chris Kearney for 4 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Chris KearneySimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Joe Gray pass incomplete, broken up by Josh GavertSimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+26
99.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 32 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 26 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:48100% → 100%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
99.9%
Lucky Radley run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+10
99.9%
Lucky Radley run for 10 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Lucky Radley run for 7 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
Marcus Stamps run for 6 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to Jemond HazelySimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Marcus Stamps run for no gain to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+5
99.9%
Lucky Radley run for 5 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
99.9%
Chris Hokokian run for 8 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
100.0%
Lucky Radley run for 11 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
100.0%
Alvin Jelks run for 5 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
100.0%
Alvin Jelks run for 6 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
100.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Alvin Jelks for 3 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+9
100.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Daniel Bradbury for 9 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Daniel BradburySimilar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
100.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Daniel Bradbury for 6 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+34
100.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 34 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:37
Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 14:21
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q3 11:56
Donnel Pumphrey run for 35 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com