Try the model
SDSU

San Diego State 29 at Boise State 38

BOIS
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Albertsons Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:30 · Joel Alesi punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior+8.6Home team on offense+1.5Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:33: Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 6 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +16.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:31: Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +18.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:56: Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +22.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:23: Jay Ajayi run for 10 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +15.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:37: Donnel Pumphrey 34 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — SDSU win probability +26.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 12:59SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:40BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:46SDSU 4th & 6 at BOIS 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:26BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:14SDSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:30BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:29SDSU 4th & 4 at BOIS 13, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.3%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:25BOIS 4th & 4 at SDSU 4, down 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:43SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:33BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:10SDSU 4th & 6 at BOIS 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:08BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 32, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:26SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 29, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%−4.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:47BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:30SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−4.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:31SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 33, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:02SDSU 4th & 25 at SDSU 30, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:16SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:33SDSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:17BOIS Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:31BOIS Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:56BOIS Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:23BOIS Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:37SDSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:01BOIS Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5016% → 17%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
84.0%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Blake Renaud for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+3
83.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+11
83.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 11 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
83.4%
Joel Alesi punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1383% → 83%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
83.4%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
83.3%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Chaz Anderson, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+9
83.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 9 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
83.0%
Sean Wale punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:4617% → 19%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
82.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 8
50
+5
82.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+17
82.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 17 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
82.1%
Lloyd Mills pass complete to Quinn Kaehler for 15 yds to the BoiSt 13 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lenicio Noble) to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 5
OPP 23
0
81.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for no gain to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-5
81.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Daniel Brunskill) to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
81.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+4
81.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 4 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
81.3%
Donny Hageman 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:4581% → 81%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
81.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+14
81.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
81.5%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
81.2%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
80.9%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
80.6%
Sean Wale punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 5:1019% → 26%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
80.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (David Wells) to the SDSt 8Similar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+6
81.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+4
80.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+6
80.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 6 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
80.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+15
79.9%
Kaehler, Quinn pass incomplete to Mills, Lloyd, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Page, Cleshawn) 15 yards to the SANDIEGOST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
79.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 5 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
79.1%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
50
+11
78.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 11 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
78.5%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
77.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+32
74.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 32 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
74.1%
Grant Hedrick pass intercepted Calvin Munson return for no gain to the BoiSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3026% → 27%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
73.6%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
73.2%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 2
OPP 41
0
73.1%
Chase Price run for no gain to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
73.0%
Joel Alesi punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3472% → 69%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
72.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 2 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+1
71.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+1
70.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 1 yd Jay Ajayi fumbled, forced by Cody Galea, recovered by BoiSt Rees OdhiamboSimilar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
69.4%
Sean Wale punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:5229% → 34%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
70.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 38 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
70.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
69.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
68.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd Mills, broken up by Tyler GraySimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
65.7%
Donny Hageman 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2567% → 64%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
66.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
66.4%
Grant Hedrick run for no gain to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 4
OWN 27
-5
65.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Steven Baggett) to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+26
64.2%
Grant Hedrick pass intercepted J.J. Whittaker return for 26 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:5837% → 54%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+28
62.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 21 yds to the BoiSt 13 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Kamalei Correa) to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
62.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the BoiSt 6Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
45.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 6 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:5452% → 52%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
52.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
51.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+8
50.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 8 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
50.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 8 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
50.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
48.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
50
+46
48.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 46 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
50.4%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 5Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
49.8%
Grant Hedrick run for 1 yd to the SDSt 4Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
48.5%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 3:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
52.0%
Dan Goodale 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 1:3754% → 60%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
45.1%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Armand Nance) to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
44.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
43.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
41.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Daniel BrunskillSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
39.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 5 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
38.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+3
39.8%
Joel Alesi punt for 39 yds , Donte Deayon returns for 3 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:1145% → 58%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+29
45.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 14 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (J.J. Whittaker) to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
47.2%
Grant Hedrick run for 7 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
47.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Troy Ware for 2 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
46.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
47.4%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 21 yds to the SDSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
57.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 14 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
52.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0554% → 50%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
53.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
53.4%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 2 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
51.7%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
50.3%
Sean Wale punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:1549% → 60%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
51.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-5
50.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Daniel Brunskill) to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
51.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+15
51.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 15 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
49.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+4
47.7%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
47.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
47.1%
Quinn Kaehler run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
46.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
40.2%
Donny Hageman 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:2244% → 56%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
44.3%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-4
43.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+7
40.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+24
39.9%
Chris Santini run for 24 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
40.1%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Jon Sanchez and Dontrell Onuoha for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 16
50
+7
37.8%
Grant Hedrick run for 7 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+15
37.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 15 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
40.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 1 yd to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
39.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+15
36.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 15 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
37.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4453% → 55%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
47.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
44.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
44.7%
Joel Alesi punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:3347% → 44%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
47.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+7
48.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 7 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
49.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
50.5%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+3
48.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 3 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-5
47.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
44.3%
Sean Wale punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
41.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted Cleshawn Page return for 20 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3452% → 75%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
52.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 7 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+4
52.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1532% → 29%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
68.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
69.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Chase PriceSimilar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
71.0%
Joel Alesi punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:0071% → 90%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
70.9%
Grant Hedrick run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
72.1%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+15
69.6%
Hedrick, Grant pass incomplete to Williams-Rhodes, Shane, PENALTY SANDIEGOST pass interference (Kazee, Damontae) 15 yards to the SANDIEGOST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
73.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 28 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
74.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
89.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 10 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:2415% → 42%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
85.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
85.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 5 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+14
84.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 14 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
84.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 11 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
84.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+34
57.6%
Donnel Pumphrey 34 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26TD
17 plays · 70 yds · 6:1670% → 96%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
69.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
70.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
70.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
72.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+1
76.2%
Devan Demas run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+9
74.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 9 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
76.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
77.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+8
77.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 8 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
80.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 7 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+8
80.8%
Grant Hedrick run for 8 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
80.8%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
81.9%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
95.9%
Grant Hedrick run for 13 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 14 yds · 0:544% → 3%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Mikah Holder for 8 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-8
95.8%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Gabe Perez for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 25Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 8 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+12
96.7%
Chase Price run for 12 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
96.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-15
96.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Mikah Holder SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Nico Siragusa) to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 25
OWN 30
+6
97.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 6 yds to the SDSt 39 lat. to Lloyd Mills for 3 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3097% → 96%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-1
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:37
Donnel Pumphrey 34 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-26.7
TD · Q4 14:56
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)
+22.9
TD · Q3 4:31
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)
+18.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com