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SDSU

San Diego State 14 at Nevada 30

NEV
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Joel Alesi punt for 49 yds , Richy Turner returns for no gain to the Nevad 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:39: Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:06: Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 20 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +3.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:15: Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 21 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:42: Brent Zuzo 24 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +11.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:06: James Butler run for 43 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +19.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:12NEV 4th & 19 at NEV 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:22NEV 4th & 8 at SDSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:00SDSU 4th & 8 at NEV 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:43NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:59SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:57NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 32, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:12NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.9%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:32NEV 4th & 6 at SDSU 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−10.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:01NEV 4th & 29 at NEV 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−5.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:08SDSU 4th & 26 at SDSU 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−6.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:48SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:42NEV 4th & 6 at SDSU 6, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−17.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:42SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:59SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:40NEV 4th & 1 at SDSU 1, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−2.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:04SDSU 4th & 7 at NEV 37, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:39SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:06NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:15SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:06NEV Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:40NEV Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
64.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
64.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 12 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
64.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 5 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-1
64.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-7
64.0%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Matthew Lyons and Jonathan McNeal for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
64.0%
Joel Alesi punt for 49 yds , Richy Turner returns for no gain to the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
63.8%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+14
63.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 14 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
63.8%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
63.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
63.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+53
63.5%
Alex Boy punt for 56 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 53 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
62.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 7 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+10
62.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
62.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the Nevad 9 Donnel Pumphrey fumbled, forced by Duran Workman, recovered by Nevad Matthew LyonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
63.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 11 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
63.5%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
63.4%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-11
63.2%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Christian Heyward for a loss of 11 yards to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 19
OWN 11
+2
63.0%
Alex Boy punt for 46 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:3738% → 43%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
62.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 21 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
62.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 5 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-2
62.0%
Lloyd Mills run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+23
62.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 23 yds to the Nevad 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
62.0%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.0%
Dakota Gordon run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.9%
Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:0959% → 61%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
59.4%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
59.5%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+15
59.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 15 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
60.0%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
60.0%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
59.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
60.7%
Brent Zuzo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2240% → 40%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete, broken up by Lenny JonesSimilar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
60.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
60.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted Jonathan McNeal return for 20 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:4462% → 66%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
62.1%
James Butler run for no gain to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
65.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 20 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
63.9%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+5
63.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 5 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+16
63.3%
Chase Price run for 16 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
62.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Daniel BrunskillSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
62.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 10 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
62.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Chase PriceSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
62.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
62.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
63.3%
Joel Alesi punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Richy Turner at the Nevad 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
63.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 2 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+7
63.3%
Cody Fajardo run for 7 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+5
63.0%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-14
63.7%
JACKSON, Don rush for 5 yards to the NEV33 (GAVERT, Josh), PENALTY NEV illegal block (GALAS, Matt) 14 yards to the NEV14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 24
OWN 14
+8
63.4%
Don Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 16
OWN 22
+8
63.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 8 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+6
62.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 6 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
62.9%
Alex Boy punt for 43 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for no gain to the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
64.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 12 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
63.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 9 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
61.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Daniel BrunskillSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
62.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd Mills, broken up by Charles GarrettSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
63.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd Mills, broken up by Nigel HaikinsSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
64.7%
Joel Alesi punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
64.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
64.2%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+9
63.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 9 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
63.5%
Alex Boy punt for 45 yds, downed at the SDSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:1236% → 54%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
63.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Adam Roberts for 9 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+10
62.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Adam Roberts, broken up by Jonathan McNealSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
62.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 18 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
61.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+19
61.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Adam Roberts for 19 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
46.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 21 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
53.1%
FAJARDO, Cody pass incomplete to RICHARDSON, J., PENALTY NEV holding (ANGLEMIRE, Joey) 10 yards to the NEV15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
52.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+15
52.6%
Don Jackson run for 15 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
52.6%
Don Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
54.4%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
54.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+2
52.9%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 5:2854% → 58%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
53.9%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
53.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 6 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 14:12
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+6
53.9%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
50
+4
56.4%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-5
56.6%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Austin Corbett) to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+11
54.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 11 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
56.8%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+13
56.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 13 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
58.3%
James Butler run for 13 yds to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
58.3%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
58.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
56.5%
Cody Fajardo run for no gain to the SDSt 7Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
57.9%
Brent Zuzo 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:0046% → 49%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
53.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 19 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
51.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the Nevad 44 Donnel Pumphrey fumbled, forced by Jonathan McNeal, recovered by Nevad Nigel HaikinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -19 yds · 0:0059% → 53%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
59.3%
JACKSON, Don rush for 19 yards to the SDSU37 (LOMAX, Trey), PENALTY NEV holding (KHOURI, Adam) 10 yards to the NEV34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 20
OWN 34
0
55.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 20
OWN 34
-6
55.3%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Jon Sanchez for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 26
OWN 28
-3
53.6%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 29
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Alex Boy punt for 51 yds, downed at the SDSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
53.2%
Chase Price run for 12 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
51.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 12 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
49.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 7 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
48.7%
Chase Price run for 10 yds to the Nevad 35 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jemond Hazely) to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
48.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-8
49.8%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Duran Workman for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 11
OWN 47
-15
55.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Terry Poole) to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 26
OWN 32
0
56.2%
Seamus McMorrow punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
59.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Matt MoenSimilar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
58.8%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
58.0%
Cody Fajardo pass intercepted Dontrell Onuoha return for no gain to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0050% → 47%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
50.0%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-2
48.7%
Ezell Ruffin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+3
52.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+28
52.8%
Joel Alesi punt for 39 yds , Richy Turner returns for 28 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 5:0057% → 68%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
56.8%
Cody Fajardo run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+15
52.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (J.J. Whittaker) to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
57.6%
Don Jackson run for 20 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
59.1%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-3
58.6%
Cody Fajardo run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+11
56.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 11 yds to the SDSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
58.6%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
58.6%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
56.4%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
67.6%
Brent Zuzo 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
61.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 2 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
62.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 1 yd to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
64.6%
Joel Alesi punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Richy Turner at the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:3666% → 90%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
66.4%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
67.1%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+9
67.5%
James Butler run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
50
+7
70.3%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+43
90.3%
James Butler run for 43 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.7%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
85.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Adam Roberts for 5 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 2 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-4
85.5%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-6
88.7%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 28 Quinn Kaehler fumbled, recovered by SDSt Quinn Kaehler , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
89.3%
Joel Alesi punt for 37 yds, downed at the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:2691% → 99%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
91.4%
Don Jackson run for 6 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Sam Meredith) to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
92.4%
NEVADA Penalty, illegal procedure (Matt Galas) to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+47
92.0%
Don Jackson run for 47 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
94.9%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 4Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.8%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.5%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:282% → 1%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Chase PriceSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
97.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 11 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
97.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
99.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Chase PriceSimilar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
99.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Larry ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 36Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:06
James Butler run for 43 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+19.9
TD · Q2 1:15
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 21 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-14.7
FG · Q4 11:42
Brent Zuzo 24 yd FG GOOD
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com