Try the model
UNLV

UNLV 17 at San Diego State 34

SDSU
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Qualcomm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:15 · Joel Alesi punt for 45 yds, downed at the SANDIEGOST 6 UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding (3 Yards) to the UNLV 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior+19.9Home team on offense+18.2Score differential+8.6Garbage-time factor+8.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:17: Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 44 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK) — UNLV win probability +2.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:04: Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:11: Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:37: Donny Hageman 24 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:47: Blake Decker run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK) — UNLV win probability +7.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:10UNLV 4th & 2 at SDSU 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:55UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:09SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:23SDSU 4th & 10 at UNLV 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:09UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:03UNLV 4th & 13 at SDSU 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:15SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:38UNLV 4th & 5 at SDSU 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:37SDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 7, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:37UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 49, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:18SDSU 4th & 4 at UNLV 14, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:18UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 29, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:19SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:12UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 35, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:55SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:17UNLV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:21SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:04SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:11SDSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:47UNLV Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
88.2%
Jemond Hazely run for 5 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
88.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Jemond HazelySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
-7
88.2%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Sonny Sanitoa for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 17
+48
88.2%
Joel Alesi punt for 44 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for 48 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1512% → 13%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
87.6%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+9
87.6%
Keith Whitely run for 9 yds to the SDSt 4Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-1
87.7%
Keith Whitely run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 5Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
87.2%
Jonathan Leiva 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
87.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 71 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+24
87.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 24 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
87.4%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
87.4%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
87.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
87.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 41 yds, downed at the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
87.0%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+14
87.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 14 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
87.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Mikah Holder for 9 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+4
87.2%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan SparkmanSimilar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
87.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 7 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
87.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Chase Price, broken up by Siuea VaesauSimilar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
87.0%
Joel Alesi punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:3214% → 16%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
86.3%
George Naufahu run for 4 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
86.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+19
86.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 19 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
86.2%
George Naufahu run for 11 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
86.0%
George Naufahu run for 9 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+1
85.8%
George Naufahu run for 1 yd to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
83.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 44 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:5684% → 85%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
84.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 11 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
84.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
84.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 6 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+16
84.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Adam Roberts for 16 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
84.9%
KAEHLER, Quinn pass incomplete to HOLDER, Mikah (BAKER, Brandon), PENALTY LV pass interference 15 yards to the LV20, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
84.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+8
84.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
84.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
83.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the UNLV 1Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8INT
9 plays · 71 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
84.1%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
84.1%
Blake Decker run for no gain to the UNLV 14Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+23
84.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 23 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
83.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for 34 yds to the SANDIEGOST 29 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
82.7%
Blake Decker run for 7 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
82.7%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+5
83.0%
Blake Decker run for 5 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
82.7%
Blake Decker pass intercepted, touchback. Billy Vaughn Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
83.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 29 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
84.0%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
84.1%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+5
83.9%
UNLV Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
84.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Chase PriceSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
84.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd Mills, broken up by Kenneth PennySimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
83.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd Mills, broken up by Kenny KeysSimilar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
82.8%
Joel Alesi punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
82.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 8 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+4
82.3%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
82.2%
Keith Whitely run for 7 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+3
81.9%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
82.1%
WHITELY, Keith rush for 4 yards to the LV31 (SANCHEZ, Jon), PENALTY LV holding 10 yards to the LV17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+2
82.3%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 18
OWN 19
0
82.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Marcus SullivanSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 18
OWN 19
+3
82.9%
George Naufahu run for 3 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
83.2%
Logan Yunker punt for 35 yds, downed at the SDSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:3983% → 88%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+36
82.9%
Lloyd Mills run for 36 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
83.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+5
83.6%
GORDON, Dakota rush for 3 yards to the LV10 (SPARKMAN, J.), PENALTY LV OF 5 yards to the LV8, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
83.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the UNLV 7Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 0
OPP 7
+4
84.2%
PUMPHREY, Donne rush for 6 yards to the LV1 (LANGHAM, Trent), PENALTY LV offside 4 yards to the LV3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 2:0113% → 11%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
87.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for 8 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+2
86.8%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
87.0%
Blake Decker sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+2
87.2%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+14
87.4%
Blake Decker run for 14 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
86.5%
Blake Decker sacked by Trey Lomax for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
88.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
88.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Taylor BarnhillSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
88.9%
Logan Yunker punt for 33 yds, downed at the SDSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 0:3289% → 93%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+24
89.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 24 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
89.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
89.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Mikah Holder for 15 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
89.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+45
89.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 45 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.4%
Donnel Pumphrey pass incomplete to Daniel BrunskillSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
91.8%
George Naufahu run for 3 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15INT
8 plays · 59 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
92.5%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to KEYS, Kendal (WHITTAKER, J.J.), PENALTY SDSU pass interference 5 yards to the LV24, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
92.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 7 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+1
92.1%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+15
92.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 15 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
91.9%
Blake Decker sacked by Alex Barrett for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+34
92.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for 34 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+26
91.0%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Calvin Munson return for 26 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
94.9%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
94.9%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+13
94.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
50
0
95.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Dakota Gordon, broken up by Matt LeaSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
50
-6
95.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+5
94.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 11
OWN 49
+48
94.5%
Joel Alesi punt for 45 yds, downed at the SANDIEGOST 6 UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding (3 Yards) to the UNLV 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:256% → 5%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
94.5%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to SULLIVAN, M., PENALTY SDSU pass interference 15 yards to the LV18, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
94.3%
Blake Decker sacked by Dakota Turner for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 10Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 18
OWN 10
+24
94.4%
Blake Decker run for 9 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
94.0%
Blake Decker run for no gain to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
94.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 11 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
93.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 24 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
93.1%
Keith Whitely run for 5 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
92.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Billy Vaughn Jr.Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
93.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal Keys, broken up by Billy Vaughn Jr.Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
94.6%
Jonathan Leiva 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 7:0196% → 99%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
95.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
95.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
95.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 3 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
95.9%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
96.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
96.1%
KAEHLER, Quinn pass incomplete to MILLS, Lloyd, PENALTY LV pass interference 15 yards to the LV37, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
96.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+2
96.1%
Adam Roberts run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
96.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+9
96.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 9 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
96.1%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+5
97.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+2
97.1%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+24
98.8%
Donny Hageman 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:501% → 9%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
98.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Jake Phillips for 19 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
98.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 10 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Billy Vaughn Jr.Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
98.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 5 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-5
98.7%
Blake Decker sacked by Alex Barrett for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+38
98.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 38 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
98.5%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to BOYD, Devonte, PENALTY SDSU pass interference 11 yards to the SDSU2, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.5%
Blake Decker run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:2995% → 98%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.4%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
95.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+15
95.9%
KAEHLER, Quinn pass incomplete to CLARK, Larry, PENALTY LV personal foul 15 yards to the SDSU36, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
96.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+11
96.3%
Dakota Gordon run for 11 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
96.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
96.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Mikah Holder for 9 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+4
96.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
96.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
96.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
96.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
97.9%
Donny Hageman 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
97.7%
Blake Decker run for 5 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-10
97.5%
Blake Decker sacked by Cody Galea for a loss of 10 yards to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+11
97.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 11 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
97.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 51 yds, downed at the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 2:0998% → 100%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.3%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
98.6%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
98.9%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
98.9%
Chase Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
98.9%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Chase Price run for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Joel Alesi punt for 31 yds, downed at the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.3%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Maika Mataele, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+12
99.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 12 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.3%
Blake Decker run for 7 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
99.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+7
99.2%
Blake Decker run for 7 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.2%
TEAM pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
99.2%
Blake Decker run for 10 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:47
Blake Decker run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q2 3:04
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 0:11
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com