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SDSU

San Diego State 13 at Fresno State 24

FRES
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 3, 2014 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.4FRES 57.4%Donny Hageman 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 10 · Q3 8:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:11 · Donny Hageman 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Home team on offense+1.6Pregame prior−3.7Garbage-time factor+0.7Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:56: Brandon Connette run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +5.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:49: Josh Quezada run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +18.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:20: Nick Bawden pass complete to Adam Roberts for 5 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +19.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:15: Marteze Waller run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST down — FRES win probability +18.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:26: Marteze Waller run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +7.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 7SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:52SDSU 4th & 16 at SDSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:18FRES 4th & 10 at SDSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:56FRES 4th & 1 at SDSU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−4.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:44SDSU 4th & 7 at FRES 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:34FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:52SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:32FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:32SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:50FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:32SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:11SDSU 4th & 5 at FRES 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−9.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 2 at FRES 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−0.9
    86% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−7.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:14FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:15FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−1.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:06SDSU 4th & 16 at SDSU 44, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:56FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:49FRES Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:20SDSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−1.0
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:26FRES Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
40.5%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
40.5%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to Adam RobertsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
40.5%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
40.5%
Joel Alesi punt for 45 yds, downed at the FrsSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
40.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
40.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 12 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
40.7%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted J.J. Whittaker return for no gain to the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
40.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
40.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
40.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-9
40.9%
Nick Bawden sacked by Brandon Hughes for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 14Similar
Q1 13:52
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
41.0%
Joel Alesi punt for 49 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for no gain to the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:0342% → 44%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
41.8%
Marteze Waller run for 18 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
42.2%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
42.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 3 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+19
42.1%
Brian Burrell run for 19 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
42.2%
Brian Burrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 21Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+6
42.2%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-5
42.1%
Brian Burrell sacked by Dontrell Onuoha for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
43.5%
Kody Kroening 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
42.9%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
42.9%
Nick Bawden run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 33 Nick Bawden fumbled, forced by Kyrie Wilson, recovered by FrsSt Derron Smith , return for 2 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:2444% → 50%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
43.7%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+1
43.6%
Brian Burrell run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+49
43.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 49 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
44.7%
Brian Burrell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+6
44.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 6 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
44.3%
Brian Burrell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
44.7%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 8Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
44.7%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
44.3%
Brian Burrell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q1 2:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.0%
Brandon Connette run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:0551% → 50%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
49.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
48.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
48.6%
Dakota Gordon run for 21 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
47.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
47.6%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
47.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
48.2%
Dakota Gordon run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
49.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
49.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.3%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
50.5%
Donny Hageman 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
51.9%
Josh Quezada run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
51.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+10
50.9%
Brian Burrell run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 3
OWN 40
-2
51.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 48 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:3148% → 45%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
52.1%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
52.1%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
52.6%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
52.0%
Nick Bawden pass complete to Larry Clark for 5 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
51.5%
Dakota Gordon run for 6 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
51.5%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to Larry Clark, broken up by Ejiro EderaineSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
51.8%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
54.6%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+4
55.2%
Joel Alesi punt for 44 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for 4 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
54.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
54.5%
Brian Burrell run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
53.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+52
53.0%
Garrett Swanson punt for 52 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
55.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
55.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
55.7%
Nick Bawden pass complete to Adam Roberts for 7 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
54.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
53.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+6
53.6%
Nick Bawden pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 6 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
53.3%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
54.0%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
54.5%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
55.9%
Joel Alesi punt for 34 yds, fair catch by LeKendrick Williams at the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12MISSED FG
18 plays · 61 yds · 3:2459% → 64%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
59.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+2
59.1%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 4
OWN 24
-12
58.3%
BURRELL, Brian pass complete to HARDAWAY, Delvo for 6 yards to the FS30 (MUNSON, Calvin), PENALTY FS pass interference 12 yards to the FS12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 16
OWN 12
+16
57.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 16 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
59.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 2 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-1
59.1%
Brian Burrell sacked by Christian Heyward for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+10
58.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 10 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.1%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh QuezadaSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
60.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete, broken up by Christian HeywardSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+32
59.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 32 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
62.8%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-10
62.7%
BURRELL, Brian pass complete to QUEZADA, Josh for 9 yards to the SDSU20 (GAVERT, Josh), PENALTY FS holding (WICHMANN, Cody) 10 yards to the SDSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 20
OPP 39
+17
61.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 2 yds to the SDSt 37 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, roughing passer (Cody Galea) to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
62.8%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
62.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 1 yd to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+38
63.6%
Kody Kroening 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by N/A return for no gain to the SDSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
62.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
62.1%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron Peck, broken up by Cody GaleaSimilar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
61.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 14:50
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
59.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 51 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for no gain to the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q3 13:32
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
61.9%
Joel Alesi punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Derron Smith at the FrsSt 9Similar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
61.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
61.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
60.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
59.6%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+3
60.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
64.2%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+4
64.4%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
63.5%
Brian Burrell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
64.6%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
64.5%
Brian Burrell run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 24 Brian Burrell fumbled, forced by Calvin Munson, recovered by SDSt Trey Lomax , return for 10 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2241% → 43%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
58.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
58.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
60.8%
Nick Bawden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
57.4%
Donny Hageman 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 5:1561% → 82%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
61.3%
Brandon Connette run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+34
61.0%
Brandon Connette run for 34 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
64.8%
Brandon Connette run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+8
64.5%
Brandon Connette run for 8 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-2
64.1%
Brandon Connette run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-5
62.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 8
OPP 44
+15
60.9%
SWANSON, Garret punt 23 yards to the SDSU21, downed, PENALTY SDSU roughing the kicker (BRUNSKILL, Dani) 15 yards to the SDSU29, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete, broken up by Jon SanchezSimilar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
65.6%
Brian Burrell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
64.3%
Josh Quezada run for no gain to the SDSt 23Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 4
OWN 0
+9
59.2%
BURRELL, Brian pass incomplete to HARPER, Josh, PENALTY SDSU pass interference (SMITH, Malik) 10 yards to the SDSU13, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, PENALTY SDSU unsportsmanlike conduct (SMITH, Malik) 9 yards to the SDSU4, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
65.7%
Brandon Connette run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 7Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
65.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh QuezadaSimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
64.3%
BURRELL, Brian pass incomplete to HARPER, Josh, PENALTY SDSU pass interference (WHITTAKER, J.J.) 5 yards to the SDSU2, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.4%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 7:2120% → 43%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
80.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+12
79.7%
Nick Bawden run for 12 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
79.0%
Nick Bawden pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 15 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
76.9%
Chase Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 12
50
+18
78.1%
Nick Bawden pass complete to Larry Clark for 18 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
77.2%
Dakota Gordon run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
76.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+7
78.3%
Nick Bawden pass complete to Larry Clark for 7 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
76.7%
Nick Bawden run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
76.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+2
78.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+2
79.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
76.7%
Dakota Gordon run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
57.1%
Nick Bawden pass complete to Adam Roberts for 5 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0069% → 65%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
68.5%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-1
68.2%
Brian Burrell sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+1
66.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 1 yd to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
65.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 43 yds, downed at the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0035% → 42%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
64.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
61.8%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to Larry ClarkSimilar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+13
63.8%
Nick Bawden run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
59.9%
Nick Bawden pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 12 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.2%
Nick Bawden pass intercepted Donavon Lewis return for no gain to the FrsSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
76.5%
Marteze Waller run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
78.4%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
79.2%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
77.5%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
75.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
72.7%
Nick Bawden pass intercepted Brian Burrell return for 5 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4887% → 95%
Q4 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
86.8%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.8%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q4 3:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.0%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:187% → 4%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
93.0%
Nick Bawden pass complete to Chase Price for 9 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+9
92.4%
Nick Bawden run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
50
+2
92.0%
Nick Bawden run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
91.9%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to Jemond Hazely, broken up by Shannon EdwardsSimilar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-3
92.2%
Nick Bawden sacked by Ryan Steele and Justin Northern for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 11
OWN 49
-5
95.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Lenicio Noble) to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
95.8%
Nick Bawden pass incomplete to Larry Clark, broken up by Charles WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
96.9%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
96.8%
Josh Quezada run for 6 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+6
96.8%
Josh Quezada run for 6 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:20
Nick Bawden pass complete to Adam Roberts for 5 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-19.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:15
Marteze Waller run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST down
+18.3
TD · Q3 2:49
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
+18.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com