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SDSU

San Diego State 27 at North Carolina 31

UNC
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+1.7UNC 94.9%Donny Hageman 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 14 · Q4 10:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:30 · Donny Hageman 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior+6.4Home team on offense+20.9Score differential+8.4Garbage-time factor+6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.2Time remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:52: Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted for a TD Brian Walker return for 100 yds for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK) — UNC win probability +3.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:52: SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (1 Yards) to the SDSt 2 — UNC win probability +8.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:40: Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 11 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +1.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:45: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 91 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +1.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:30: Donny Hageman 40 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +1.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:04SDSU 4th & 10 at UNC 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:14UNC 4th & 3 at SDSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:23SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:22UNC 4th & 3 at SDSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:02UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:28SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:07UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:10SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:41UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:28UNC 4th & 5 at SDSU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:06UNC 4th & 7 at SDSU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:03SDSU 4th & 5 at UNC 32, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:30SDSU 4th & 9 at UNC 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:00UNC 4th & 2 at SDSU 6, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 10:52UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
14 plays · 37 yds · 2:5617% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
82.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 7 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
82.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+5
82.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 5 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+7
81.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 7 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
81.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 5 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+10
81.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Adam Roberts for 10 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
81.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
81.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Robert Craighead for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-10
81.8%
Pumphrey, D rush left for 1 yard to the NC28 (Hughes, T), PENALTY SDSU holding (Dilley, Z) 10 yards to the NC39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+1
81.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 1 yd to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
81.9%
Joel Alesi punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 54 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
80.5%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+1
80.5%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+8
80.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 8 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
80.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+11
80.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 11 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
80.7%
Romar Morris run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
80.9%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+10
80.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 10 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
81.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-3
81.2%
Romar Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+4
81.0%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
80.8%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 26 yds, downed at the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
78.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
78.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell Ruffin, broken up by Nazair JonesSimilar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-5
78.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Adam Roberts) to the SDSt 10Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 12
OWN 10
0
78.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 12
OWN 10
+50
79.2%
Joel Alesi punt for 50 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
79.5%
Marquise Williams run for 10 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
79.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 5 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
80.1%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
79.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
79.4%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5INT TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 4:1622% → 20%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
77.9%
Chase Price run for 11 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
77.8%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+8
77.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 8 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
77.2%
Chase Price run for 29 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
76.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+33
76.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 33 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
76.2%
Chase Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+100
79.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted for a TD Brian Walker return for 100 yds for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+1
88.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (1 Yards) to the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1414% → 14%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
86.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 19 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
86.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 56 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0087% → 88%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
87.3%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
87.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted Jon Sanchez return for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:3615% → 15%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
85.2%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+4
85.3%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
85.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+12
86.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Powell) to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
85.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
85.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 12 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
87.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 5 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
87.2%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
87.3%
Ryan Switzer run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
87.2%
N/A pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
86.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
86.6%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 43 yds, downed at the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
86.9%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-1
86.7%
Chase Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
86.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Adam RobertsSimilar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
87.2%
Joel Alesi punt for 45 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
87.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete, broken up by Alex BarrettSimilar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
87.6%
Romar Morris run for 8 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-1
87.5%
Romar Morris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
87.0%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:2212% → 12%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
87.6%
Kaehler, Q sideline pass complete to Ruffin, E for 31 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds (Green, D), PENALTY SDSU face mask (Gordon, D) 9 yards to the SDSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+5
87.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 14
OWN 15
0
87.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Dakota GordonSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 14
OWN 15
-5
87.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 10Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 19
OWN 10
+10
87.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+48
88.0%
Joel Alesi punt for 48 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2188% → 88%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
88.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
88.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
87.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+2
88.4%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 43 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
88.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-1
88.9%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:2689% → 89%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
88.6%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+12
88.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 12 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
89.2%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+12
89.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 12 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
89.2%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
89.2%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+3
89.2%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
88.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete, broken up by Josh GavertSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
88.7%
Thomas Moore 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:1512% → 12%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
88.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-10
87.9%
Kaehler, Q sideline pass incomplete to Craighead, R, dropped pass, QB hurry by Rashad, S, PENALTY SDSU holding (Greene, D) 10 yards to the SDSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
88.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+59
88.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 59 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
87.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+18
87.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Adam Roberts for 11 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Tim Scott) to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
87.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
16 plays · 65 yds · 4:2691% → 93%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
91.1%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
91.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
91.1%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
91.5%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
91.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+10
91.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 10 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
91.5%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-1
91.6%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
91.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+9
90.8%
Marquise Williams run for 9 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
91.7%
Romar Morris run for 2 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+3
91.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+10
91.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Jon Sanchez) to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
91.7%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the SDSt 11Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 11 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:379% → 6%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.2%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
91.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 10 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
90.7%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
90.3%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
90.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+4
90.7%
Alesi, J punt 21 yards to the NC34, downed, PENALTY NC roughing the kicker (Washington, D) 4 yards to the SDSU49, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
90.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 14 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
89.9%
Chase Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-10
90.4%
Price, C rush left for 9 yards to the NC29 (Thomason, J), PENALTY SDSU holding declined, PENALTY SDSU holding (Poole, T) 10 yards to the NC48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 48
0
93.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 48
+16
93.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 16 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+49
93.6%
Donny Hageman 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
2 plays · 91 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
95.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 91 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:156% → 5%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Larry ClarkSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
94.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Robert Craighead for 27 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
93.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 24 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
92.6%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+2
92.6%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-2
93.2%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Donnie Miles for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
94.9%
Donny Hageman 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:2496% → 97%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.8%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
95.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
95.9%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
95.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 13 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
96.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 24 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
96.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Will Dancy) to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+16
96.1%
Marquise Williams run for 16 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
96.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 19 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.8%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
95.8%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
95.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 5 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+5
95.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Paul Pitts for 5 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
95.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted Brian Walker return for 26 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4497% → 97%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
97.4%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
97.4%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-1
97.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 6Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
97.4%
Nick Weiler 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25INT
13 plays · 72 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 25Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
97.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 17 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+20
97.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 20 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete, broken up by Junior GnonkondeSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+17
96.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 17 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
96.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 9 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 1
OPP 7
0
96.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
96.9%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted, touchback. Tim Scott return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
97.4%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:52
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (1 Yards) to the SDSt 2
+8.3
TD · Q2 10:52
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted for a TD Brian Walker return for 100 yds for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)
+3.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com