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SDSU

San Diego State 7 at Oregon State 28

ORST
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:01 · Joel Alesi punt for 32 yds , Terron Ward returns for no gain to the SDSt 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Pregame prior+2.4Home team on offense+31.3Score differential+22.0Garbage-time factor+8.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 9:34: Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST down — SDSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:27: Terron Ward run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK) — ORST win probability +7.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32 — ORST win probability +2.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:58: Storm Woods run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK) — ORST win probability +8.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:16: Storm Woods run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK) — ORST win probability +10.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:27ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:00SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00SDSU 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:49ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:34SDSU 4th & 19 at ORST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:45SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 3 at ORST 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:07ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:33SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:07ORST 4th & 1 at SDSU 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:01SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:27SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:05ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:27ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:58ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:16ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3327% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, offside defense (Dylan Wynn) to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+36
73.4%
Lloyd Mills run for 36 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
73.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
73.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+13
73.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
73.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
73.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+5
73.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 5 yds to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.7%
Storm Woods run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
71.8%
Victor Bolden run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.7%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
71.9%
Sean Mannion run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
71.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor HamlettSimilar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
71.7%
Keith Kostol punt for 44 yds, downed at the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
70.2%
Chase Price run for no gain to the SDSt 13Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
70.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 4 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
70.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
70.5%
Joel Alesi punt for 44 yds , Victor Bolden returns for no gain to the OrgSt 38 Victor Bolden fumbled, recovered by SDSt Pierre RomainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:4932% → 32%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
68.5%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Bud Delva for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
68.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted Steven Nelson return for no gain to the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:2769% → 73%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
69.2%
Sean Mannion sacked by Cody Galea for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 28 Sean Mannion fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Gavin Andrews , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
69.0%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb SmithSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+13
68.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 13 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
69.6%
Terron Ward run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
69.8%
Terron Ward run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+10
69.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 10 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
70.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Sean Harlow) to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 15
OPP 48
-12
69.6%
Sean Mannion sacked by Fred Melifonwu for a loss of 12 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 27
OWN 40
+32
69.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 32 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
70.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-6
70.3%
Sean Mannion sacked by Sam Meredith for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 30 Sean Mannion fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Sean Mannion , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+15
69.5%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Bolden, Victor, PENALTY SDSU pass interference (KAZEE, Damontae) 15 yards to the SDSU15, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
70.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 3 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
72.7%
Terron Ward run for 12 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
69.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+6
69.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
69.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 11 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
68.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Dakota Gordon for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
69.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Larry ClarkSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+9
69.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
50
0
69.2%
Joel Alesi punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
70.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 11 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
70.6%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
71.0%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+3
70.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+15
69.9%
Keith Kostol punt for 45 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 15 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
67.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric Judge, broken up by Larry ScottSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
68.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+19
68.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 19 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
66.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
65.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (Quinn Kaehler) to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+4
66.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-9
65.6%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by D.J. Alexander for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 20
OPP 43
-5
67.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (Quinn Kaehler) to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 25
OPP 48
+6
67.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Adam Roberts for 6 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
68.6%
Joel Alesi punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:0969% → 79%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
68.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 7 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+5
69.1%
Terron Ward run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
68.9%
Mannion, Sean pass complete to Dockery, Rahmel for 15 yards to the OSU39 (WHITTAKER, J.J.), PENALTY OSU pass interference (Dockery, Rahmel) 12 yards to the OSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 22
OWN 12
+18
68.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 3 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (J.J. Whittaker) to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
69.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 5 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
70.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 7 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
70.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 12 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
71.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Grant Bays) to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+49
69.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Rahmel Dockery for 49 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.8%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
76.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0277% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
77.7%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
77.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Tyler Anderson for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
78.3%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
77.7%
Storm Woods run for 7 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
78.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Tyler AndersonSimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
77.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 2 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+27
77.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 27 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
78.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 7 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+8
78.6%
Storm Woods run for 8 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.8%
Storm Woods run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
85.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
84.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+9
84.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 9 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
84.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
84.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
84.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
86.2%
Joel Alesi punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Terron Ward at the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4488% → 99%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
87.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 13 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Jon Sanchez) to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
88.7%
Terron Ward run for 11 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
88.7%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the SDSt 36Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
88.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 17 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
88.7%
Storm Woods run for 7 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
88.7%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+3
88.2%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
88.7%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
89.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, offside defense (N/A) to the SDSt 2Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 0
OPP 2
+1
89.2%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Mullaney, R. (SMITH, Malik), PENALTY SDSU holding (KAZEE, Damontae) 1 yards to the SDSU1, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
88.7%
Terron Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 3Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
88.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
88.6%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Hamlett, Connor (KAZEE, Damontae), PENALTY SDSU pass interference (KAZEE, Damontae) 1 yards to the SDSU2, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.6%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:093% → 2%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
97.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
97.3%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
97.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 28 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
97.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 1 yd to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+6
97.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 6 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 21
0
97.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
98.9%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
98.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 3 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Hunter Jarmon, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+7
98.9%
Keith Kostol punt for 51 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 7 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
98.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 6 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-5
98.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Donnel Pumphrey) to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-4
98.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 13
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Chase FavreauSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Joel Alesi punt for 26 yds, downed at the OrgSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:4099% → 100%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
99.2%
Terron Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+21
99.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 21 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.3%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 4 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-5
99.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Gavin Andrews) to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+10
99.2%
Terron Ward run for 10 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
99.6%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete, broken up by Lavonte BarnettSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.3%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Obum Gwacham for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
99.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
99.3%
Joel Alesi punt for 32 yds , Terron Ward returns for no gain to the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.7%
Chris Brown run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
99.7%
Sean Mannion pass intercepted Malik Smith return for no gain to the SDSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+8
99.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 8 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted Michael Doctor return for 3 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.7%
Chris Brown run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+1
99.7%
Chris Brown run for 1 yd to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+11
99.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 11 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
99.7%
Chris Brown run for 8 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 2
OPP 28
-4
99.7%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:16
Storm Woods run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)
+10
TD · Q3 9:58
Storm Woods run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 0:27
Terron Ward run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com