Try the model
WSU

Washington State 29 at San Diego State 26

SDSU
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Snapdragon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreWSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.4SDSU 18.2%Gabriel Plascencia 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 6 · Q1 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:00 · Gabriel Plascencia 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior−29.5Home team on offense−3.1Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:17: Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SDSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 7:05: Jordan Napier pass complete to Nate Bennett for 27 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:39: Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +18.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:08: John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 34 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +30.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 5:03: John Mateer 2 Yd Run (John Mateer Pass to Kris Hutson for Two-Point Conversion) — WSU win probability +49.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 7:19WSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 1, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−5.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:03SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:31SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:54SDSU 4th & 3 at WSU 28, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.9%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00SDSU 4th & 5 at WSU 10, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:26SDSU 4th & 2 at WSU 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−1.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:58WSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:57WSU 4th & 21 at WSU 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−5.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:49SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 44, down 2
    Close callPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:32WSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 42, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%−1.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:11SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 14, down 2
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:02WSU 4th & 16 at WSU 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−6.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:11SDSU 4th & 22 at SDSU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−2.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 7:19WSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:17SDSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:05SDSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:39SDSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:08WSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.8
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:03WSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    59.6%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    60.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:2778% → 82%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
22.1%
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the SDSU 16Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
22.4%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+13
23.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 13 yds to the SDSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
22.6%
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the SDSU 2Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
22.9%
Leo Pulalasi run for 1 yd to the SDSU 3Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
23.0%
Leo Pulalasi run for 2 yds to the SDSU 1Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.0%
John Mateer run for 1 yd for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:4215% → 15%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
15.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 12 yds to the SDSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
15.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 6 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
15.2%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
15.2%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:03
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
15.2%
Tyler Pastula punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:3485% → 85%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
15.3%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
15.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
50
+22
15.3%
Kyle Williams run for 22 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
15.4%
Leo Pulalasi run for 2 yds to the SDSU 26Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+26
15.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 26 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:2616% → 17%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
15.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 9 yds to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
15.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the SDSU 40Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-5
16.0%
PENALTY SDSU False Start (Ulugalu-Maseuli,Ross) 5 yards from SDSU40 to SDSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+9
15.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 9 yds to the SDSU 44Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
16.1%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+21
16.0%
DJ Herman pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 21 yds to the WSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
16.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 8 yds to the WSU 27Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
16.8%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-1
16.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for a loss of 1 yard to the WSU 28Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
16.5%
Gabriel Plascencia 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:4484% → 83%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
16.2%
John Mateer run for 4 yds to the WSU 39Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
16.2%
Wayshawn Parker run for 1 yd to the WSU 40Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+25
16.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 25 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
16.3%
Wayshawn Parker run for 3 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
16.4%
Leo Pulalasi run for 3 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+1
16.6%
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the SDSU 28Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 3
OPP 28
0
17.0%
Washington State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:5417% → 18%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
17.3%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Ansel Din-Mbuh for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSU 23Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+9
17.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 9 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+8
17.3%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson pass complete to Nate Bennett for 8 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
17.9%
PENALTY SDSU False Start (Jones,Christian) 5 yards from SDSU40 to SDSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+38
17.5%
Cam Davis run for 38 yds to the WSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
18.8%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson run for 7 yds to the WSU 20Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+5
18.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the WSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
18.9%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson run for 5 yds to the WSU 10Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
18.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the WSU 11Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+1
18.6%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson run for 1 yd to the WSU 10Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
18.2%
Gabriel Plascencia 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7Uncategorized
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:1282% → 83%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
17.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the WSU 33Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+5
17.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 5 yds to the WSU 38 for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
17.4%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+19
17.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 19 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
16.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 1 yd to the SDSU 42Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+8
17.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 8 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+6
17.1%
John Mateer run for 6 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
16.9%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
17.1%
John Mateer run for 3 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+8
17.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mateer,John pass incomplete short left to Williams,Kyle thrown to SDSU18 broken up by Phillips,Bryce, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (Phillips,Bryce) 8 yards from SDSU25 to SDSU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:3218% → 19%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
17.9%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson pass complete to Nate Bennett for 14 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
18.5%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 5 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
19.5%
(06:23) Shotgun Tupou'ata-Johnson,Javance pass incomplete deep right to Bennett,Nate thrown to WSU25 PENALTY SDSU Illegal Formation offsetting WSU Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+9
19.5%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson run for 9 yds to the WSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
20.0%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson sacked by Ansel Din-Mbuh for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSU 45Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 16
OWN 45
0
18.5%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+14
18.0%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson pass complete to Jordan Napier for 14 yds to the WSU 41Similar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+1
19.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the WSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1783% → 83%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
16.8%
Wayshawn Parker run for 10 yds to the SDSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
16.6%
Wayshawn Parker run for 9 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
16.1%
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the SDSU 41 John Mateer fumbled, recovered by WSU John MateerSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+1
16.6%
Wayshawn Parker run for 1 yd to the SDSU 40Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
17.1%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:2920% → 31%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
19.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 6 yds to the SDSU 46Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
20.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
50
+15
20.6%
(01:22) Shotgun O'Neil,Danny pass incomplete deep right to Poke,Ja'Shaun thrown to WSU13 PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (Gushiken,Kapena) 15 yards from SDSU50 to WSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
21.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 13 yds to the WSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
21.9%
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the WSU 20Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+13
22.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 13 yds to the WSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
31.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.2%
Wayshawn Parker run for 5 yds to the WSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:0274% → 70%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
26.3%
PENALTY WSU Delay Of Game (Mateer,John) 5 yards from WSU39 to WSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+3
27.9%
Wayshawn Parker run for 3 yds to the WSU 37Similar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
27.9%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 12
OWN 37
-9
28.8%
John Mateer sacked by Deshawn McCuin for a loss of 9 yards to the WSU 28Similar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 21
OWN 28
0
30.5%
Dean Janikowski punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0831% → 31%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
31.2%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 5 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
33.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the SDSU 44Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
32.5%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
31.4%
Tyler Pastula punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:0671% → 68%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
29.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 11 yds to the WSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
28.7%
John Mateer run for 3 yds to the WSU 34Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
29.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 6 yds to the WSU 40Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
28.4%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 3 yds to the WSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
28.5%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Mateer,John pass incomplete deep left to Mathers,Cooper thrown to SDSU26 PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (Staley,Dalesean) 15 yards from WSU43 to SDSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
27.8%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-2
28.0%
John Mateer sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 44Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+2
29.9%
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
31.6%
Dean Janikowski punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the SDSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1532% → 31%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
31.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the SDSU 11Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 5
OWN 11
0
32.3%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+3
31.2%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 3 yds to the SDSU 14Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+43
30.8%
Tyler Pastula punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:4338% → 56%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
37.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 3 yds to the WSU 40Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+13
38.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 13 yds to the WSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
55.7%
Jordan Napier pass complete to Nate Bennett for 27 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
Q3 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
55.7%
PENALTY SDSU False Start (Nassar,Brady) 5 yards from WSU03 to WSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:3252% → 46%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
48.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 7 yds to the WSU 35Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+3
45.7%
Wayshawn Parker run for 3 yds to the WSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
47.9%
John Mateer sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the WSU 33Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
50.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for no gain to the WSU 33Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+1
52.5%
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the WSU 32Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
53.7%
Dean Janikowski punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the SDSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 5:0755% → 84%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
54.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 6 yds to the SDSU 37Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+20
57.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 20 yds to the WSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
59.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 6 yds to the WSU 37Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 37
-1
60.3%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Ansel Din-Mbuh for a loss of 1 yard to the WSU 38Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+12
60.5%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 12 yds to the WSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
62.8%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
62.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the WSU 22Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+18
62.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 18 yds to the WSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
64.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the WSU 2Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.1%
Ja'Shaun Poke run for 1 yd to the WSU 1Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:1818% → 50%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
82.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the WSU 29Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+33
81.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 33 yds to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
80.3%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 4 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+34
50.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 34 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:2367% → 74%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
66.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 38Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
69.3%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+31
68.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for 31 yds to the WSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
73.8%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
73.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 13 yds to the WSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
74.7%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the WSU 18Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-4
75.4%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Nusi Malani for a loss of 4 yards to the WSU 22Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 14
OPP 22
0
74.1%
Danny O'Neil pass intercepted Taariq Al-Uqdah return for no gain to the WSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:1937% → 79%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
62.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 9 yds to the WSU 46Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-10
59.1%
(07:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Mateer,John rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SDSU49 (Chambliss,Owen) PENALTY WSU Holding (Kylany,Devin) 10 yards from WSU46 to WSU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+18
64.8%
John Mateer run for 18 yds to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
61.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 14 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
60.4%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
61.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 15 yds to the SDSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
60.9%
John Mateer run for 15 yds to the SDSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.9%
John Mateer 2 Yd Run (John Mateer Pass to Kris Hutson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 2:4036% → 30%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.5%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 3 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
36.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 9 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
37.2%
Danny O'Neil run for 7 yds to the SDSU 44Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+9
40.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 9 yds to the WSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
41.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for a loss of 2 yards to the WSU 49Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-15
39.0%
San Diego State Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the SDSU 41Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 22
OWN 41
0
33.1%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 22
OWN 41
0
31.8%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 22
OWN 41
0
30.3%
Tyler Pastula punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23END OF GAME
13 plays · 23 yds · 2:0083% → 95%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
17.1%
Wayshawn Parker run for 2 yds to the WSU 25Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+8
14.3%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 8 yds to the WSU 33Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+4
13.8%
John Mateer run for 4 yds to the WSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
12.4%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for no gain to the WSU 37Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
11.7%
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the WSU 42Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+3
9.7%
John Mateer run for 3 yds to the WSU 39Similar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
5.0%
PENALTY SDSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting WSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+15
6.7%
(00:22) Janikowski,Dean punt 40 yards to the SDSU21 PENALTY SDSU Roughing The Kicker (Anderson,Brady) 15 yards from WSU39 to SDSU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
4.9%
J. Mateer takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:03
John Mateer 2 Yd Run (John Mateer Pass to Kris Hutson for Two-Point Conversion)
-49.8
TD · Q4 12:08
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 34 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-30
TD · Q4 13:39
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
+18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com