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SDSU

San Diego State 20 at UNLV 41

UNLV
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of GameTD-3UNLV 96.2%Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd for a TD(Gabriel Plascencia KICK)AWAY 20 - HOME 38 · Q4 13:46
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:46 · Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+11.4Home team on offense+22.2Score differential+9.4Garbage-time factor+6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.6Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:24: Greg Burrell run for 20 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +2.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:20: Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +4.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:25: Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SDSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:16: Hajj-Malik Williams run for 12 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +5.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:46: Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:29UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:41UNLV 4th & 1 at SDSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:13SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:26SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:32SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 37, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:20UNLV 4th & 1 at SDSU 4, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:37SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:32UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:02UNLV 4th & 3 at SDSU 41, up 15
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:28SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 36, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:46UNLV 4th & 10 at SDSU 28, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:40SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 43, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:52UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 8, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:46SDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 1, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:37UNLV 4th & 3 at SDSU 3, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:58SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:27SDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 19, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 4:05UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:24UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:20UNLV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:25SDSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:16UNLV Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:40UNLV Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:22SDSU Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:46SDSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1990% → 90%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Casey CainSimilar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
89.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kayden McGee for 1 yd to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+6
89.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 6 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
89.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2811% → 11%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
89.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the SDSU 20Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
89.4%
Danny O'Neil pass intercepted by Cameron Oliver at the SDSU 33, returned for 0 yards to the SDSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:0390% → 89%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
89.5%
Jett Elad run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 34Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+10
89.4%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 10 yds to the SDSU 24Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+21
89.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 21 yds to the SDSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
89.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 4 Hajj-Malik Williams fumbled, recovered by SDSU Hajj-Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
89.2%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the SDSU 3Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
89.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSU 1Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.5%
Jett Elad run for no gain to the SDSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:2812% → 13%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
88.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the SDSU 4Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+4
88.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 8Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+10
88.5%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 10 yds to the SDSU 18 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-7
87.6%
Danny O'Neil run for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSU 11 Danny O'Neil fumbled, recovered by SDSU Danny O'NeilSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 17
OWN 11
-3
87.6%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 8Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 20
OWN 8
+9
87.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 9 yds to the SDSU 17Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 11
OWN 17
+5
87.5%
Tyler Pastula punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Jacob De Jesus returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 2:0888% → 89%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
50
+43
87.6%
Jacob De Jesus run for 43 yds to the SDSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
87.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Christian Moore for 1 yd to the SDSU 6Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
87.8%
Greg Burrell run for 4 yds to the SDSU 2Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2812% → 12%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 24Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
88.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the SDSU 27Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
88.1%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Michael HarrisonSimilar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
88.2%
PENALTY SDSU Delay Of Game (Pastula,Tyler) 5 yards from SDSU27 to SDSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+5
88.3%
Tyler Pastula punt for 53 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:5888% → 91%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Ricky White IIISimilar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
87.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 8 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
88.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 3 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
88.3%
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
88.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Ricky White IIISimilar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+13
87.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Casey Cain for 13 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
88.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Brady Nassar for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+29
87.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 29 yds to the SDSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
90.5%
Greg Burrell run for 20 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4011% → 11%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.4%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 20Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
89.6%
Danny O'Neil run for 12 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
89.3%
Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd to the SDSU 33Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
89.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 37Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
89.2%
Danny O'Neil run for no gain to the SDSU 37Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+1
89.3%
Tyler Pastula pass complete to Deshawn McCuin for 1 yd to the SDSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:0691% → 95%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
90.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Ricky White IIISimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+25
90.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 12 yds to the SDSU 26 for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, (13 Yards) to the SDSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
90.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 7 yds to the SDSU 6Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 3
OPP 6
-1
90.7%
Jacob De Jesus run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 7Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+3
90.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSU 4Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+4
95.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:356% → 6%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
94.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 30Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
94.3%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Jalen Catalon for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSU 22Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+5
94.5%
Tyler Pastula punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 25 , Jacob De Jesus returns for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5995% → 95%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.4%
Devin Green run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
95.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 6 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-10
95.5%
(06:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Devin rush left for 14 yards gain to the UNLV48 (Henderson,Ryan) PENALTY UNLV Holding (Boyd,Austin) 10 yards from UNLV34 to UNLV24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
95.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+11
95.3%
Marshall Nichols punt blocked by Chris Johnson, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 30 blocked by Chris Johnson San Diego State Penalty, (10 Yards) to the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:076% → 11%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
93.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Cooper,Marquez rush left for 11 yards gain to the UNLV29 (McDuffie,Marsel; Elad,Jett) PENALTY SDSU Holding (Wolfe,Jude) 10 yards from UNLV40 to UNLV50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 20
50
0
94.3%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 20
50
+4
94.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+17
94.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 17 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
93.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Davis,Cam rush left for 10 yards loss to the UNLV39 (Woodard,Jackson; Conti,Lucas) PENALTY SDSU Holding (Jones,Christian) 10 yards from UNLV29 to UNLV39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+10
94.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
89.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:2391% → 91%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
90.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 13 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
91.2%
Greg Burrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
90.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Casey CainSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+15
90.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 15 yds to the SDSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
91.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
91.2%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
90.9%
Greg Burrell run for 1 yd to the SDSU 41Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
91.0%
punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14INT
1 play · 11 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
91.2%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for 11 yds to the SDSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:4592% → 97%
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
91.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 15 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
91.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+13
91.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Hajj-Malik pass incomplete short left to White III,Ricky thrown to SDSU20, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (Johnson,Chris) 13 yards from SDSU28 to SDSU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
91.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the SDSU 12Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
91.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Ricky White IIISimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
96.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 12 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:094% → 5%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
95.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+8
95.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the SDSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:134% → 4%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
96.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 38Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-2
96.0%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 36Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
96.2%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+6
96.4%
Tyler Pastula punt for 43 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 6 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:4097% → 99%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
96.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 22 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
97.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the SDSU 46Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
97.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
97.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
97.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 25 yds to the SDSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
97.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the SDSU 9Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+2
97.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the SDSU 7Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 7 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:111% → 3%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 9 yds to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
99.5%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 16 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
97.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 46 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:1897% → 99%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
97.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kayden McGee for 47 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Casey CainSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
97.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for no gain to the SDSU 28Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
97.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Casey CainSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
98.9%
Caden Chittenden 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:571% → 1%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 4 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
98.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for 5 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
98.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
98.5%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Fisher Camac for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSU 33Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+8
98.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+2
98.8%
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the SDSU 43Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Tyler Pastula punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4099% → 99%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
99.2%
Kylin James run for 1 yd to the UNLV 5Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+2
99.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+1
99.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kylin James for 1 yd to the UNLV 8Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 6
OWN 8
+20
99.3%
Marshall Nichols punt for 47 yds , Mekhi Shaw returns for 20 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:011% → 4%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
99.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for 13 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.0%
UNLV Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 4 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, unnecessary roughness (3 Yards) to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.0%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the UNLV 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the UNLV 2Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 13:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.2%
Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:5398% → 99%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.5%
Kylin James run for 9 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
97.7%
Kylin James run for 22 yds for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ricky White III) to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
97.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 7 yds to the SDSU 47Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
97.9%
Greg Burrell run for 4 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
97.9%
Greg Burrell run for 8 yds to the SDSU 35Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
99.2%
Caden Chittenden 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-25
99.3%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Burrell,Greg rush left for 25 yards gain to the SDSU10 (Dalton,Darrion) PENALTY SDSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting UNLV UNR: Unnecessary Roughness offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+25
99.4%
Greg Burrell run for 15 yds to the SDSU 20 for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, (10 Yards) to the SDSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 3 yds to the SDSU 7Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.4%
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the SDSU 4Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.3%
Greg Burrell run for 1 yd to the SDSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:391% → 1%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.0%
Shotgun O'Neil,Danny rush right for 10 yards loss to the SDSU15 (Baldwin,Johnathan) PENALTY SDSU Holding (Fuimaono,Saipale) 10 yards from SDSU25 to SDSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
99.0%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+14
99.0%
Tyler Pastula punt for 44 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 14 yds to the SDSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26FUMBLE
10 plays · 45 yds · 5:5599% → 100%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.4%
Devin Green run for 4 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
99.4%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Corey Thompson Jr. for 9 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
99.4%
Devin Green run for 4 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+7
99.4%
Cameron Friel pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for 7 yds to the SDSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
99.6%
Devin Green run for 2 yds to the SDSU 19Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
99.6%
Devin Green run for 2 yds to the SDSU 17Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+14
99.6%
Cameron Friel run for 14 yds to the SDSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for 2 yds to the SDSU 1Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Cameron Friel run for 1 yd to the UNLV 28 Cameron Friel fumbled, recovered by SDSU Dalesean StaleySimilar
Q4 3:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Cameron Friel run for 1 yd to the UNLV 28 Cameron Friel fumbled, recovered by SDSU Dalesean StaleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:251% → 1%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-10
99.2%
(02:25) Shotgun O'Neil,Danny rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNLV25 (Woodard,Jackson) PENALTY SDSU Holding (Bryant,Brayden) 10 yards from UNLV26 to UNLV36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+16
99.3%
Danny O'Neil run for 16 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
99.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
99.3%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Jordan NapierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.7%
DeAngelo Irvin Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+6
99.7%
Kylin James run for 6 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:25
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-5.1
TD · Q2 0:16
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 12 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
+5
TD · Q2 9:20
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com